Opposition chief Raila Odinga appears to be taking advantage of President Uhuru Kenyatta's perceived laid-back leadership style to position himself in the succession matrix.
Since the March 9, 2018, handshake with Uhuru, Raila has metamorphosed from that political truce and partner role to assume informal but unmistakable influence and authority within the Jubilee government.
Politicians and experts say the synergy and political climate established by the handshake appears to be working in favour of both the President and the once-fiery opposition leader, thus, Raila's growing influence.
The opposition leader has grown tremendously from being a defender of the handshake into a government insider with assertive power and administrative authority.
While Raila's mysterious, amorphous role has given him gravitas that demonstrates his fast-rising influence, his rising fortunes have rattled Deputy President William Ruto's camp.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo told the Star that despite the lack of statutory provisions to give Raila a grounded legal mandate, the President appears to have welcomed his presence in government.
“Uhuru has agreed to Raila's metamorphosis. If he was opposed he would have pronounced himself or acted in a manner that would have frowned upon Raila,” Bigambo said.
He argues that while the handshake was meant to cool political temperatures and support the nine-point agenda between Raila and Uhuru, it morphed into a different mechanism anchoring the opposition leader's influence.
The Constitution gives executive powers to the President and the Deputy President. The opposition leader is masquerading as a government official. We don't care about what he says because the command structures are clear,
After the handshake, Raila started accompanying the President to public functions and attended state events at State House,with security agents giving him elaborate and official receptions.
When touring counties, Raila is being received by top government officials, among them county commissioners and police commanders, a privilege that he never enjoyed as a government critic between 2013 and 2017 when he gave Jubilee sleepless nights.
As his influence surged, Raila has been meeting influential political players and business figures from the President's Mt Kenya backyard, a move that unsettles
After months of speculation, Raila in October 2018 was named the African Union Special envoy for Infrastructure, an elevated role that would expand his influence not only in the region but across the continent.
In the last one year, Raila has met more than 20 African presidents in his role. He has traversed the continent, holding strategic meetings with heads of state.
The leader of the Orange Democratic Party has also travelled outside Africa and has been received by Kenya's heads of missions and ambassadors — as if he were a senior government official.
Raila's Nasa co-principals — Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) and Moses Wetangula (Ford Kenya) have been unsettled by Raila's growing stature. Is he still a real opposition leader.
Only former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper has started enjoying some limited privileges after he was named Kenya's special envoy to South Sudan.
With the fast-changing 2022 political dynamics, the former prime minister's enhanced role has triggered a groundswell of resentment and more in the DP's camp.
The DP's allies are crying foul that Raila is taking advantage of the turbulence roiling the Jubilee Party to seek massive dividends as he rolls up his sleeves for what many expect to be political comeback.
“The Constitution gives executive powers to the President and the Deputy President. The opposition leader is masquerading as a government official. We don't care about what he says because the command structures are clear,” protested South Mugirango MP Sylvanus Osoro.
Osoro, an ardent Ruto supporter, said the former prime minister is just keeping himself busy by moving around the country because he has no constitutional mandate to make any impact.
“We have urged government officials to ignore any orders from pedestrians in government. Let the public officers treat his (Raila's) directives with contempt,” Osoro said.
However, experts say Raila is cleverly carving out his place within government circles while hoping to inherit Uhuru's fractious Mt Kenya support base following a split within the ruling party.
Ruto's allies believe Raila is exploiting the perceived frosty relationship between the President and his deputy while capitalising on the raging turmoil within Jubilee to consolidate his foothold ahead of the next presidential duel.
The ex-PM has not, at least not publicly declared his 2022 ambitions but there has been immense pressure from his closest allies who want him to use the handshake as a springboard for a fifth stab at the top job.
Raila has set in motion a radical strategy to overhaul his ailing ODM party in what signals larger ambitions for which he will need a viable and popular vehicle.
Last week Raila ordered the suspension of Lapsset dredging in the Indian Ocean to facilitate recovery efforts following the Linkoni ferry tragedy.
The Star has established that the opposition leader's stop-dredging declaration caught many senior government officials off guard even as it emerged the order had the blessings of the President himself.
To further back up the order, Raila was accompanied by Transport Cabinet Secretary James Macharia whose silence on the opposition leader's directive confirmed concurrence from a higher authority.
Raila was assertive during his visit to Likoni, Mombasa county, last Saturday, to console the family of Mariam Kigenda and her daughter Amanda Mutheu. Their car rolled off the Likoni Ferry.
"I want to give an order here that the dredging works stop immediately so that those who are working here can work without interference," Raila ordered.
He also ordered that stringent safety, maintenance and rescue preparedness be put in place to avoid another such tragedy.
There have been questions whether Raila, as the African Special Envoy for Infrastructure, would give such an order in a neighbouring country.
“It is not possible for Raila to go into Uganda or Ethiopia and issue such orders. The laws of those countries do not give him that latitude,” Bigambo said.
He argues that Raila's authority germinated in the handshake.
When asked if Raila had powers to give orders to government officials, National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi said the ODM leader can only give an opinion.
“He can express his opinion as an African Union Envoy for Infrastructure. Since he holds no position in government, I will take it that he was expressing his opinion, perhaps as an engineer also. What I don’t know is whether the instruction [to stop dredging] was based on some advice from experts or if it was spur of the moment,” Muturi said.
But Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir cautioned Raila's critics.
“Individuals who are criticising him should instead pursue those who they deem to have powers and ask them why they didn’t give directions. Raila is not at their level, he is senior to them and can issue the instructions,” he said.
Raila's order sparked intense debate as to whether he had the capacity and requisite government authority to issue the anti-dredging directive. Ruto's lieutenants accused him of trying to usurping the President's powers.
Ruto's brigade is now demanding clarification of Raila’s role in the government and questions are being asked about the real meaning of the handshake.
Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, a key Ruto lieutenant, accused Raila of overstepping his mandate.
“How can the opposition leader purport to give instructions to government officials to carry out orders? Is that even possible? Gachagua asked.
He termed Raila’s "attempt" to issue orders to public servants a joke since the opposition leader had no such powers.
“He is still simply an opposition leader whom we defeated in the last election and he has just been brought near the fireplace to warm himself. We are asking public servants to ignore such orders [from Raila], even if put in writing. You will only have yourself to blame if you follow the order,” Gachagua said.
Buuri MP Mugambi Rindikiiri claimed Raila had taken advantage of the handshake to issue executive orders in violation of the Constitution.
“The former prime minister is out of order. I think he is overexcited and needs to check his limits. Soon he might start declaring public holidays,” the MP said.
Belgut MP Nelson Koech termed the directive illegal and amounting to insubordination.
“Instructions are given when you hold a specific position. The directives should be dismissed since he has no authority. He thinks he has been bestowed powers by the handshake, which is extremely dangerous. This issue must be stopped lest it reaches a stage where he will issue orders the President will be uncomfortable with,” he said.
Raila's growing stature in government appears to be unsettling Ruto's allies with experts saying that he enjoys massive latitude from the President that allows him to issue directives.
Raila has wide latitude to be sure but will there be a point when he comes up against a wall? Raila certainly calculated, and Uhuru wisely concurred, that suspending the dredging to aid the recovery effort was the right thing to do.
Any future orders will have to be carefully calibrated and calculated. And Raila is known for shrewd calculation.
