Irish playwright George Bernard Shaw once wrote, “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world, the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”
Perhaps we should ask if there is anything like an ‘unreasonable’ politician in Kenya. Would that be one who is not satisfied with the way things are and is persistently calling for change for the sake of Kenyans and not just their own personal ambitions? What is true is that in Kenyan politics, the difference between a ‘reasonable’ politician or otherwise only depends on whether or not they have achieved their ambitions. Until he was elected to office, Deputy President William Ruto tried to stop the current Constitution from being enacted. But now the shoe is on the other foot and he is its biggest defender!
The same is true for former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, and many of those who had initially supported the Constitution. Once out office, they are now of the opinion that the document should be changed. The see-saw between the ‘reasonable’ and ‘unreasonable’ can be dizzying for the common Mwananchi, who is caught in the middle of it.
This protean nature of our politics is not lost to the average Kenyan, who sees it every day. It will, however, be an uphill task for Ruto to stop the tide against the constitutional change. In his first bid to do so, he had rallied, among others, faith-based organisations in rejecting the Constitution. This time, however, Catholic bishops are at the forefront of the drive to change the Constitution, and are even specific in calling for the position of Prime Minister, quite the opposite of what Ruto wants to hear.
The DP might have to find another constituency to stop the changes, as there is a prevalent national feeling the document should be amended. For now, his saving grace is that the Majority leaders in both Houses are members of his inner circle, and they have done their part in stopping the Kamket Bill, which was designed to introduce the position of an executive Prime Minister. Jubilee controls both Houses and many of its MPs and Senators would most likely do the bidding of Ruto in the House and block any changes that affect the structure of the Executive. Ruto, however, may be motivated by something greater than whether we go Parliamentary or remain Presidential.
THE FACE OF ODINGA
While many agree the Constitution should be changed, it is the motive of the change that is complicating things. In this latest drive to change the Constitution, the face of Raila Odinga is once more coming out prominently (just like the last time).
The Ruto camp has dismissed his efforts, saying the changes are at the heart of his renewed bid for power. They argue Raila had crafted the current Constitution to suit his political ambitions. But as fate would have it, his ambitions were curtailed in 2013 and again last year, largely due to unforeseen aspects in the current Constitution and that largely complicated his path to power.
As the primary driver of the new move to change the Constitution, it would now be hard to convince the Ruto camp and a good portion of the general public that he is not trying to adapt the Constitution to suit his political ambitions. While he has decried the lack of ‘inclusivity’ in the current power structure, it is not clear how the changes would cure the same. It is still possible for him or his preferred candidate not to get to power after all the trouble.
Methinks Raila should have also shaken hands with Ruto instead of just with President Uhuru. Ruto currently wields immense power in both Houses of Parliament, while Uhuru is now entering his lame duck years. So far, there have been no public or private overtures from the Raila camp to reach an understanding with Ruto on the kind of changes to be made to the Constitution. Instead of reaching out to Ruto, Raila reached out to his rival Gideon Moi and his father retired, President Daniel Moi. This can only be interpreted to mean he has an axe to grind with Ruto and the intended changes are only designed to stop the DP’s march to State House. Ruto has staked his 2022 presidential bid on the status quo, while Raila has staked his political ambitions on fundamental changes to the Executive.
RUTO’S FEARS
By meeting with retired Presidents Moi and Mwai Kibaki, Raila was sending a clear message to Ruto. He is the enemy. From his actions, he does not consider the Deputy President strategically important to the drive for reforms.
Pundits have opined that Raila could be lining up Gideon for the position of a non-executive President, while he would go for the Premiership. An offer of the presidency, even if it is a materially weak position, would be very attractive to Gideon.
In fact, the Kamket Bill originated by the Kanu MP for Tiaty, is seen as having the tacit blessing of Gideon, who would rather have someone become the executive Premier, while he becomes the non-executive President.
By becoming the leading Kalenjin contender for the non-executive presidency, it would be difficult for Ruto to become an executive Prime minister because one community cannot produce both leaders.
It shows that Raila is staking the Rift Valley to weaken Ruto from the ground.
REAL COST OF REFERENDUM
Perhaps of minor yet real concern, would be the financial cost of conducting a referendum. Other than the financial cost, there would be the disruptive effect of a new political season on the national economy, which has barely recovered from the previous season.
While these would not immediately concern Ruto, it is the outcome of a national referendum that would worry him. If he loses the referendum, then he could find himself going to 2022 from a palpably weak position. Just as in 2005, the outcome of the referendum materially affected the outcome of the subsequent general election. After winning the referendum, a new party ODM was created. It went on to win majority of seats in Parliament and controlled the House.
In the end, however, change is inevitable. Ruto must carefully navigate the drive for reforms to ensure they do not return to hurt him.
Just as George Bernard -Shaw asserts, “…all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” Perhaps it is time for him to become ‘unreasonable’. It could save him.