The just concluded by-elections in Malindi and Kericho have spawned profound analysis by partisans eager to prove that their sides fared better.
The status quo in Malindi and Kericho is maintained, but a deep look at the results and the underlying trends indicate both stress and opportunities for parties ahead of the 2017 elections.
Kenyans are undisputedly among the most informed voters anywhere. But our near-universal civic engagement hasn’t translated into the making of good political choices, and time is running out on us to prove to ourselves that we can be responsible leaders of our own destinies.
The momentum created by the new constitution – which passed against elite interests – is on the verge of being torpedoed.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is wobbling towards another inevitable failure in 2017. Its transmission system in Malindi faced unexplained troubles. Two hours after polls closed, Kericho had reported nearly all results, but figures from Malindi were coming in drips – this after voting was marred by blatant voter bribery that saw a number of Jubilee leaders arrested.
Many civil servants conducted themselves reprehensibly. The provincial administration and the police harassed opposition officials in Malindi and made it difficult for Kanu in Kericho, using old tactics like illegal arrests and demanding or cancelling licensing for campaign meetings.
The media didn’t help matters either. They pushed local dynamics in Malindi and Kericho to the backburner, feeding us on excessive punditry about how the contests foreshadowed 2017. To the media, the question in Malindi was whether Jubilee could wrestle the Coast from Cord, while the Kericho vote was a referendum on Deputy President William Ruto’s leadership of the Kalenjin against a combined force of Bomet governor Isaac Rutto, Baringo senator Gideon Moi and Knut secretary general Wilson Sossion.
Every election has its nuances. Above winning the Malindi seat, Cord scored a few gains, key of which was empowering Coastal leaders in managing its campaign. The coalition owes its Malindi success to governors Hassan Joho and Amason Kingi and women representatives Aisha Juma and Mishi Mboko, among other local leaders.
Cord does well in the Coast because its politics reinforces rather than undermines the autonomy (devolution) that Coastal leaders hold dear. Quite paradoxically, Jubilee couldn’t trust their Coastal allies even with the bribery of their own constituents – it was Ferdinand Waititu and Peter Gitau who were arrested bribing voters in Malindi!
Notwithstanding Cord’s success, Malindi revealed once more some of its long-festering failures. First is its insufficient contact with the grassroots. The Jubilee candidate Philip Charo was a leading ODM member until he was lured into the government side through a fantastic deal that included campaign money, state machinery, and an assurance that his employer, NIC Bank, would reinstate him in case he lost.
Granted, ODM couldn’t have given these guarantees. But it could have retained Charo, who is a highly educated, charming and popular leader, by guaranteeing him fair party nominations which he would win. Yet even after Charo defected, ODM still bungled its nomination. Joho and the aforementioned team stepped in forcefully to manage the crisis which finally saw ODM hand its nomination to William Mtengo.
The nomination squabbles only strengthened Charo, who attempted to undercut his newly-wrong party choice by opportunistically disowning Jubilee. Once, at a presidential function, Charo urged his supporters to vote for him as an individual, not as a Jubilee member. Juma and Mboko repudiated him firmly, explaining that Charo could have run as an independent candidate if he hadn’t ‘sold out’ to Jubilee.
In the end, Charo still did exceptionally well, confirming that even though Jubilee is not any better organised than Cord, its stealthy raids in ODM do soar up its numbers. Conversely, ODM always loses credible candidates, many of whom in 2013 won seats in Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Busia and Narok on Jubilee tickets.
The by-elections also showed that voters are hungering for political vision. Malindi residents rejected Jubilee’s centrist, exclusivist record even after it was wrapped in a person they adore. In Kericho, voters disaffected with William Ruto still see him as the only potential Kalenjin leader; anyone seeking their support must demonstrate that he can match or even beat Ruto on this.
Despite legitimate questions about Aaron Cheruiyot’s qualification for the senatorial seat, he carried an appeal of freshness that Paul Sang lacked. The campaign was spiced with heavy spending, a feature of Kalenjin politics since the Moi days. Moi, eager to hearten disbelieving Kalenjins that they were in power, regularly hosted delegations in which gifts flowed.
Campaigning in Kericho, DP Ruto repeatedly proclaimed that voting for Kanu was “pata potea”, a subtext for missing out on the largesse of government power. This is a brand of politics one can’t change – as Isaac Ruto, who has championed devolution for over a decade, just learnt – by recycling people like Paul Sang, Nick Salat and others who subsist on Moi family handouts.
Still, Governor Ruto should rejoice that Sang got over 50,000 votes. Kalenjins are becoming receptive to an alternative vision but, unlike the Coast with devolution, they haven’t yet determined the contours of that new vision.