ODM must find its ideological soul to survive beyond Raila

As Raila Odinga’s body was laid to rest in Bondo, so too was buried the unifying soul of a party that once gave Kenya its fiercest democratic hope.

Since then, the divide about ODM’s future has been glaring.

One side opposes committing the party to any agreements with President William Ruto beyond August 2027, while the other side always reminds everyone that ODM is in the broad-based government — and it will not leave. But the broad-based faction cannot yet tell Kenyans the ideological justification for remaining in Ruto's government or what ODM even means beyond those three letters.

This division reveals an existential crisis of a party uncertain of its soul, torn between power for its own sake and conviction. A party that does not know what it stands for cannot purport to lead Kenya into its future, whether in government or in opposition.

WHAT DOES ODM STAND FOR?

Raila gave ODM its soul and its ideological underpinning. He lived those values. With him gone, ODM must build on this foundation, institutionalise what he embodied.

ODM claims to be a social democratic party. But social democracy is not just a label. It is a political philosophy rooted in justice and equality, a socio-ecological economy serving the public good, not elite enrichment. It means fair taxation, universal healthcare, quality education, protection of workers’ rights, environmental protection, and robust social safety nets.

Across continents and decades, social democracy has always resisted tyranny, choosing democracy over dictatorship, justice over expedience, and principle over power. In 1933, only the Social Democratic Party of Germany voted against Hitler's Enabling Act that paved way for a Nazi dictatorship and the Holocaust. A lonely act of moral courage that cost many members their lives. This is the kind of legacy that ODM claims to redraw inspiration from. The question now is whether the party’s current leaders can live up to it.

ODM holds critical dockets Ruto's Cabinet such as the Treasury, Justice, Energy and Regional Development. Are its ministers fighting for these social-democratic ideals or are they merely administering Ruto’s policies?

The party was formed out of Kenya's constitutional struggle and the fight for devolution, multiparty democracy, rule of law and protection of civil rights.  Yet, it has largely remained silent on recent police killings even at Raila’s body viewing at Kasarani. Does its current behaviour, within and outside government, strengthen constitutionalism, and promote protection of human rights, or has it abandoned the very ideals that gave it legitimacy?

Raila championed devolution to bring government and development closer to the people. Will ODM recommit to strengthening accountability and service delivery in the counties? Or will it become another force for centralism as long as its members occupy national executive offices?

On environmental protection, the betrayal is most stark. Raila paid a heavy political price to protect the Mau Forest Complex. Now, Ruto's government has lifted the logging ban in the Mau Forest Complex and ODM’s silence is deafening. If ODM won't fight for Mau, the issue that defined Raila's environmental commitment, what will it fight for?

MODERN NATIONALISM AND DEVOTION TO COUNTRY

ODM must also resist any attempt to make it a Luo ethnic party and instead articulate a vision of modern Kenyan nationalism, different from ethnic mobilisation that has poisoned our politics. One that celebrates Kenya's diversity, promotes equal citizenship, development and solidarity, regardless of ethnicity or region.

Raila is a celebrated nationalist because he embodied devotion and service to Kenya throughout his life. Selflessness, resilience, and always standing for what he considered right and just, even at great personal cost. True devotion to country means sometimes sacrificing personal advancement for principle or even leaving government when staying compromises your values. ODM leadership must ask itself whether it can discern such values, let alone embody them.

IDEOLOGICAL RENEWAL FIRST, PERSONNEL SECOND

Only after ODM answers these fundamental questions can it meaningfully address leadership issues and map out a 2027 strategy.

But answering them with ideological clarity requires the party to rediscover its intellectual depth - serious minds capable of deeply dissecting the problems of our times, connecting the dots to our past, and creating a compelling vision for Kenya's future, just like Raila did.

The party should undertake a national conversation, bringing together intellectuals, policy experts, grassroots members from all counties to define what ODM stands for in the post-Raila era. This task requires genuine democratic engagement with the ground and not backroom deals.

ODM should also study successful social democratic parties globally. Many survived because they had ideologies transcending individuals. They invested in policy, research, and youth training. They debated ideas instead of dividing spoils. ODM too can become a school of ideas, not a competition for positions.

Yes, some will say that money, ethnicity, and personality and not ideology win elections in Kenya. But without ideology, parties become briefcases. They win power but lose purpose. In a society hungry for issue-based politics, ODM has a chance to prove that conviction can coexist with political realism.

If ODM fails, if it cannot transcend Raila and institutionalise his values, Kenya loses a key potential alternative to the status quo.

“Mugendi Nyaga is an actuary and public policy analyst”

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