JAMWA: Post-election bungling of coalitions haunts Raila

While he is known for coalition building, today’s trends and realities may not favour his genius.

by ODHIAMBI JAMWA

Coast19 December 2021 - 14:42

In Summary

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s clear Raila’s path would have been clearer if he worked to the end with the Nasa trio.
Uhuru would also be having a serious machine if Jubilee remained as it was or at least maintained its stature.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga in Nakuru county on December 1.

The last three major coalitions he has made, in 2007, 2013 and 2017, were with leaders who were fairly young and looked forward to their turn one day in the future.Today, the same leaders face political oblivion unless they play their cards well. They may not have another realistic chance if the next train leaves them.

I highly doubt that President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga visualised what awaited them when with zeal they set in motion the process of cannibalisation and annihilation of anybody who had a different opinion within their party and coalition ranks.

Otherwise, one would have expected them to treat their now erstwhile political partners with decorum and decency knowing that the battle royale was ahead.

While Raila is known for coalition building, today’s trends and realities may not favour his genius. The last three major coalitions he has made, in 2007, 2013 and 2017, were with leaders who were fairly young and looked forward to their turn one day in the future.

Today, the same leaders face political oblivion unless they play their cards well. They may not have another realistic chance if the next train leaves them.

Yet with pre-election pacts turning out to be obeyed in breach, there’s palpable caution, which is putting the spanner in the coalition building works. The Deputy President is approaching things differently, vouching for a huge national party rather than coalition of small parties, many of which are activated only during elections.

If ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi makes good his plan to run for president next year, then the ODM leader will face a tough challenge as Mudavadi’s second stab will be an improvement of his first one in 2013. Majority of his voters will be from Mulembe nation, given our ethnocentric voting pattern. The region has overwhelmingly voted for Raila in the past.

To add injury to insult, a Kalonzo run will have the potential of forcing a run-off. Thus, no stop is being pulled to bring the Nasa team, now in Oka, back together to support Raila’s bid.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s clear Raila’s path would have been clearer if he worked to the end with the Nasa trio. Uhuru would also be having a serious machine if Jubilee remained as it was or at least maintained its stature. As things look, Uhuru and Raila are faced with a task they may not surmount.

Economic and political analyst