SAMSON OTIENDE: Why Raila is an attractive compromise candidate

As the country moves closer to the August 2022 general election, people are still scratching their heads on what kind of political formations will emerge.

This is because all indicators show only those leaders in a strong coalition will win the election, given the tribal nature of our politics. This reality somehow happens to affect Raila Odinga, the ODM leader, more than his probable key challenger, Deputy President William Ruto.

Ruto, with his potentially divisive hustler’s vs dynasties bnarrative, has successfully managed to build a strong following comprising largely of youthful, unemployed Kenyans cutting across virtually all tribal boundaries.

And yet the one thing that makes Raila attractive and therefore a ‘deadly’ presidential candidate is his newly acquired compromise candidate status. This is a quality that has previously been associated with Musalia Mudavadi.

‘Compromise status’ is a positive concept that any serious candidate would want to be associated with. In the Kenyan political context, it means whole tribes and their kingpins would rather support a certain candidate as opposed to others because of certain interests. In Raila’s case, age, which he of late has been at pains to explain away, might be his saving grace.

David Murathe a close confidant of President Uhuru Kenyatta, is on record saying the Jubilee Party will support Raila in  2022 on a one-term arrangement.

Murathe has christened this arrangement a Mandela moment.

DP Ruto raised eyebrows early this year when following rumors Raila was being betrayed by his handshake partners suggested he was comfortable working with Raila. This led to protests from his Mt Kenya supporters who warned him against such an idea.

Finally, the One Kenya Alliance had severed links with NASA ostensibly because of the ODM leader. Ironically in their recently cobbled outfit called the One Kenya Alliance, they keep on insisting that the ‘doors are open for Raila’-Albeit with conditions.

What they are not telling Kenyans is that each one of those tribal supremos will find it difficult to support the other, especially Mudavadi and Kalonzo.

For Mudavadi, it is his restive Luhya support base that has put him at a catch 22 situation. Kalonzo, on the other hand, is senior to Mudavadi in all aspects and, therefore, cannot countenance supporting him.

Since age is catching up with the two gentlemen, they secretly would rather a candidate who can credibly assure them a one-term run. Indeed, media reports have suggested the possibility of Kalonzo making overtures to Raila’s camp in secret.

Because of his age, Raila stands out as a candidate whom tribal kings-and some tribes even-would support, not because they love him, but because of him serving only one term. His handlers are therefore advised to leverage on the ‘compromise candidate’ factor.

Samsom Otiende, Kakamega