Hon. Mustafa Abdirashid Ahmed MCA Iftin and current Deputy Speaker of Garissa County Assembly./COURTESY
Politics in Garissa has always been defined by shifting sands, delicate alliances, and the constant recalibration of expectations among the three dominant blocs; the North, the South, and the Central constituencies.
At every election cycle, these regions come together in pragmatic but often short-lived arrangements, driven less by long-term ideological visions and more by a mixture of ethnic arithmetic, personal ambitions, and survival instincts.
The announcement or rather, the strong indication that Governor Nathif is preparing to seek the Senate seat in 2027 has once again unsettled the fragile equilibrium that had been emerging.
What
appears on the surface as a simple move for higher office is, in truth, a
profound political maneuver that has the potential to reshape alliances,
destabilize assumptions, and redefine the county’s political map ahead of the
next polls.
To fully appreciate the delicacy of Governor Nathif’s calculation, one has to revisit the trajectory of Garissa’s politics over the past decade.
In 2017, the Central constituency emerged triumphant, capturing the gubernatorial seat through a South-Central alliance that proved formidable at the ballot.
The North, although a significant player, remained outside the winning arrangement. However, by the time of the 2022 elections, the central bloc imploded under the weight of internal competition.
Two
candidates from the same political wing squared out, splitting the vote and
leaving room for a rebirth of alliances elsewhere.
That vacuum provided fertile ground for the North to strike an agreement with the South, delivering Governor Nathif’s second term in office.
The
unwritten understanding at the heart of that North-South pact was
straightforward; with Gov Nathif constitutionally barred from seeking a third
term, the South would, in 2027, enjoy its turn at the helm of the county.
The North, in turn, would step aside, paving
the way for a smooth transition that maintained balance and rewarded loyalty.
For a time, this agreement seemed to offer a stabilizing framework for the next
political cycle. Yet, politics is rarely so linear.
Contrary to the expectations of their southern partners, the North has shown unmistakable signs of preparing for another gubernatorial bid.
Leaders, elders, pundits, and aspirants from the region have begun positioning themselves aggressively, signaling that they have no intention of ceding the stage.
It is against this backdrop that Gov Nathif’s rumored senatorial ambition must be read. His entry into the Senate race complicates the anticipated handover arrangement and throws the South into a position of deep uncertainty.
For the South, Governor Nathif’s move is nothing short of unsettling. Their anticipation of ascending to the governor’s seat after years of waiting now faces an unexpected hurdle.
By actively re-inserting himself into the county’s political chessboard, Gov Nathif is ensuring that his influence endures beyond his governorship.
The Senate seat, while technically less powerful than the governor’s office, would grant him a commanding platform at both the county and national levels.
From there, he can shape alliances, arbitrate disputes, and, perhaps most importantly, control the tempo of succession politics in Garissa.
This is where the Central constituency finds a surprising opening. At first glance, Gov Nathif’s move seems purely self-serving.
But for Central, it might be the blessing in disguise they have been waiting for. The very act of the North insisting on a third consecutive gubernatorial bid weakens their moral claim to leadership in the eyes of the South.
If the North cannot honour the informal pact of 2022, the South may feel betrayed and forced to seek new allies.
Central, with its political weight and proven ability to deliver results when united, could once again become an attractive partner.
The rebirth of a South-Central alliance though not yet visible has become a realistic possibility precisely because of the North’s overreach and Gov Nathif’s Senate gamble.
From a strategic standpoint, Governor Nathif’s move is smart but also fraught with risk. It ensures that he remains politically relevant and shields his legacy from being overshadowed by a potential rival governor from either bloc.
At the same time, it risks alienating the South, who may now view the North as politically divided, greedy and untrustworthy.
Ex-governor Ali Korane’s sole candidacy from the central bloc provides a timely and convenient alternative for the south as it stands.
It simplifies the choice for southern leaders; instead of clashing with a fragmented north constituency, they can rally behind a single, established figure with a proven political structure, national visibility, and financial muscle.
The logic is pragmatic, if the north won’t step aside, then the next best move is to ally with the central, reviving the successful 2017 formula.
The next two years will therefore be critical in shaping the direction of Garissa politics. Already, there are whispers of recalibration, of emissaries being dispatched quietly between the South and Central to test the waters of renewed cooperation.
If history is anything to go by, these
alliances can be forged and broken quickly, but the logic of numbers remains
constant; no single bloc can win the governor’s seat alone. What matters is
timing, trust, and the ability to convince partners that their turn will
eventually come.
Ultimately, the 2027 contest in Garissa is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. Governor Nathif’s Senate bid adds a new layer of intrigue, making what was once a straightforward expectation of rotation into a complex web of suspicions and recalculations.
Whether his gamble will strengthen the North’s hand, backfire spectacularly, or pave the way for a Central comeback remains to be seen.
What is clear, however, is that Garissa’s political future hangs delicately in the balance, where even a single move like this one, can tilt the scales of power in unexpected directions.
