Coalition-building for the general election is strained. The winning threshold – 50 percent-plus one, and bagging 25 per cent of the presidential vote in 24 of 47 counties – comes with challenges.
Kenya Kwanza Alliance is rattled. Azimio la Umoja is restless. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka wanted to be appointed running mate or else he would destroy Azimio. He took a walk, even with an advance nomination in a Raila Odinga-Martha Karua government.
Johnson Muthama, a Kenya Kwanza plank, has been sulking since Governor Alfred Mutua signed up for KK.
Presidential candidates Raila Odinga and William Ruto are making generous concessions to appease their coalition partners.
Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula, largely Western politicians, have been promised prime cabinet secretary, National Assembly Speaker, seven ministries, and 30 per cent of other government positions. But Mudavadi, Amani National Congress leader, and Wetang'ula of Ford Kenya must deliver 70 per cent of the Luhya vote to Ruto's presidential basket to win their meal tickets.
Mudavadi and Wetang'ula must knock on doors in Vihiga, Kakamega, Busia, Bungoma, and Trans Nzoia counties to claim the tables reserved for them in Kenya Kwanza.
United Democratic Alliance, the mother party, reserves the right to withdraw the reserve if Wetang'ula and Mudavadi don't deliver.
Voter turnout in these counties hardly goes beyond 65 per cent. It is unlikely voters will turn out en mass because of a ghost promise to their presidential son.
Mudavadi was expected to run for president, or be a running mate. Now, voters are being baited to support a supporter of the UDA presidential candidate.
Mudavadi didn't deliver 50 per cent of Luhya vote to himself when he ran for president in 2013. Vihiga, Mudavadi's home county, is under the grip of ODM Governor Wilber Ottichilo. Senator George Khaniri, a long-time Mudavadi ally, is running on the ticket of a party allied to Azimio.
Kakamega, the headquarters of the Abaluhya, is under the grip of Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, ODM deputy leader. Bungoma, Wetang'ula's home county, is Azimio-leaning. Governor Wycliffe Wamangati is defending his seat on an Azimio-allied party.
Azimio controls Busia county. Former national government administrator, George Natembeya, long converted the Abaluhya-dominated Rift Valley county into an Azimio base.
Asking Mudavadi and Wetang'ula to turn the tide in 90 days is expecting too much. They have not delivered Luhya unity during the decade they have sung the song.
The DP is telling them if you don't deliver 70 per cent of the presidential vote from the region, you forfeit your shares.
Kenya Kwanza's fresh signings Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi and Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua have equally high targets: Kingi must deliver 50 per cent of presidential votes from Kilifi county. Mutua must also deliver 35 per cent of Kamba votes to claim the seats reserved for them.
'Senate Speaker' Kingi and Water or Energy or Infrastructure 'Cabinet Secretary' Mutua must get down to work to win their meal tickets.
President Uhuru Kenyatta, and DP Ruto, even with the support of government machinery, and Mutua's Maendeleo Chap Chap, fell below 15 per cent during the 2017 general election.
Lacklustre performance from Mudavadi, Wetang'ula, Kingi and Mutua throws them into oblivion, unless Ruto lowers the pass mark.
Kenya Kwanza also promises 1,000km of new bitumen roads and revival of Mumias and Nzoia sugar factories. The agreement gives Kingi authority over appointments at the Kenya Ports Authority. The promise abolishes KPA Board.
Elections are being used to legitimise appropriation of national resources among compliant ethnic bases. Yet elections should usher in leadership that manages equitable distribution of national resources.
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