Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to millions of Ukrainians. But it is also a threat to hundreds of millions in countries such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Sudan, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen and even Kenya.
The war will disrupt the ability to harvest and transport food commodities. Russia and Ukraine account for about 12 per cent of total calories traded globally. The two countries are among the top five global exporters of cereals and oilseeds such as wheat, barley, maize and sunflower.
Moreover, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine are the world’s leading producers of nitrogen and potassium-based fertilisers. For example, Russia accounts for 15 per cent of global trade in nitrogenous fertilisers and 17 per cent of global potash fertiliser export, while Belarus accounts for 16 per cent of the global potash export.
Russia’s efforts to halt fertiliser exports by domestic producers and sanctions against Russian banks could further curtail global fertiliser exports. Futures prices for urea and diammonium phosphate fertilisers have jumped 32 per cent and 13 per cent respectively since February 24 when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Brazil, the world’s leading importer of fertiliser, is already experiencing severe shortages, which will affect production and global export and prices of soybeans, coffee and sugar and worsen food inflation
Prolonged disruption to the global supply of nitrogen, potash and phosphorus nutrients could reduce agricultural production in many parts of the world, for the 2022 and 2023 growing season at a time when food prices are already at record highs.
Hence, Russia’s invasion poses serious long-term risks to global food security. At least 50 countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for 30 per cent of their wheat supply.
Egypt, which imports 85 per cent of wheat and 73 per cent of sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine, is staring at an existential challenge. The prices of wheat and sunflower oil increased by 44 per cent and 32 per cent following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
African countries imported nearly $7 billion worth of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural products combined in 2020. Ukraine supplies nearly 60 per cent of European Union’s corn, of which half is used to feed livestock.
It is instructive that the price for grain for animals increased by 10 per cent in Spain, where grain imports are used to feed an estimated 55 million pigs for the pork market. Spain exports nearly 55 per cent of its pork mainly to China, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom.
The current regime of global sanctions against Russia are blistering and will likely curtail Putin’s capacity to escalate aggression against Ukraine. However, these sanctions should be informed by considerations for global food security.
Sanctions must be smart, not blunt, and target Russia’s capacity to wage war. Hence, every effort should be made to ensure that in their architecture, the sanctions permit to the extent possible food and fertiliser exports continue unimpeded.
Blunt and overzealous application of economic sanctions against the Kremlin could touch off an avalanche of interconnected crises; hunger, civil unrest and political instability in many parts of the world, especially in the MENA region.
The views expressed are the writer’s
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