Around December 16, 2020, there was much talk of a seismic shift in the politics of the Coast region.
This was because, contrary to all expectations, the by-election held in Msambweni constituency of Kwale county at that time, was won by Feisal Bader, an independent candidate.
Kwale, although having a governor (Salim Mvurya) who was elected on the Jubilee Party ticket, was generally considered to be an ODM zone. Indeed Suleiman Dori, the late MP for Msambweni, whose death had led to the by-election, had been elected on the ODM ticket – as had Salim Mvurya himself during his first term as governor (2013 to 2017).
The reason why this by-election result caused so much excitement was that the independent candidate, Feisal Bader, had been openly supported by Deputy President William Ruto. And so, many came to believe that the by-election had a significance that went far beyond coastal regional politics.
The election was considered to be a test of strength between two men who even back then were expected to dominate the race for the presidency come the 2022 general election. These two men were Ruto, and the former Prime Minister, and present-day opposition leader, Raila Odinga.
In this context, Bader’s victory was regarded as a victory for Ruto, and a clear sign that Raila and ODM’s longstanding dominance of coastal politics was at last coming to an end.
But it turned out that those who made this claim spoke too soon.
Just two months later, there was the vote by members of the county assembly over whether or not the Building Bridges Initiative Bill as it is popularly known, would be sent to the next stage in its journey towards effecting constitutional change.
In this too the lines were clearly drawn: Ruto opposed the BBI Bill, while Raila supported it.
You would think that Ruto’s newly-found influence in coastal politics would have played a major role in getting Kwale to reject this Bill. But that was not to be. It was passed by the Kwale county assembly alongside 38 of the 47 county assemblies, in what was seen as a singularly humiliating setback for Ruto.
So, what had happened?
Well, the real contest, as it turned out, was not between Ruto and Raila, but rather between Mvurya and Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho.
Both were keen to establish their status as regional kingpins within the coastal belt. And with good reason. For both were governors serving their second and final term, and if they were to have a political career beyond this last term, they needed to be taken very seriously by the even bigger kingpins who operated at the national level.
Basically, once any leader has served as governor for two terms, there are only two places for him or her to go. They must either seek to be appointed to the Cabinet. Or they may dream of ascending to those new positions proposed by the BBI Bill, such as being the prime minister or one of the two deputy prime ministers. The vice presidency, I believe, will also still be available for some lucky candidate.
All these spots on the national food chain will only be obtained by those who have a substantial basket of votes to bargain with. And so, each of the two governors had every reason to want to see his candidate win that by-election.
All this carries a lesson for those wondering about the likely outcome of the supposedly “do or die” Kiambaa constituency by-election, for which votes will already have been cast by the time you read this.
In my opinion, the winners and losers will not be either Ruto or President Uhuru Kenyatta. Who the Kiambaa voters choose as their next MP is not what will determine who gets to be the next president of Kenya.
Rather it is a ladder for various individual politicians within Central Kenya, who seek to climb upwards, and need to demonstrate that they have influence beyond their own backyards.
And it is their individual fortunes that will either rise or fall, depending on how the vote goes.
