NEW YEAR REALIGNMENTS

What to expect in 2020 politically

Many people will also be watching Deputy President William Ruto’s moves, especially with the possible realignments.

In Summary

• BBI report and its implementation will definitely shape many conversations.

• If Kenyans agree to the proposed changes to the country’s governance structure, there is a high possibility we will need to go to a referendum.

A Man and a Lion travelled together through the forest. They soon began to boast of their respective superiority to each other in strength and prowess. As they were disputing, they passed a statue carved in stone that represented “a Lion strangled by a Man.”

The Man pointed to it and said, “See there! How strong we are, and how we prevail over even the king of beasts.” The Lion replied, “This statue was made by one of you men. If we Lions knew how to erect statues, you would see the Man placed under the paw of the Lion.”

As one story is good, till another is told, 2019 has ended and we kick off the year 2020 tomorrow.

It is now important to take stock of the past year, and its implication to the politics ahead. We had elections in 2017, 2018 was the handshake year and 2019 was the Building Bridges Initiative year.

Without a doubt, BBI has caused the biggest political wave in Kenya and its ripples will be felt for years to come. It is in this year that the BBI brought together politicians across the political divide in the same room in a long time.

This was during the launch of the BBI report at Bomas of Kenya, where speakers emphasised the need for unity. This show of unity has been critical in ensuring the country stays focussed on other areas.

President Kenyatta has kept most people guessing about his political play in the last two years. However, his newfound bond with ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi will be the new talking point

We had less acrimony in the political scene thanks to the leadership of President Uhuru Kenyatta with the help of ODM leader Raila Odinga following the 2018 handshake.

In 2019, we saw a lot of activities related to the fight against corruption, with big names being arrested and arraigned. This has built the faith Kenyans have in the country’s authorities to slay the corruption dragon.

In 2020, the BBI report and its implementation will definitely shape a lot of conversations. Its implementation will most definitely shape political realignments ahead of the 2022 election.

If Kenyans agree to the proposed changes to the country’s governance structure, there is a high possibility we will need to go to a referendum. If the structure changes, the country will see those aiming for the presidency most likely form new alliances to fit the new structure.

The push for the position of a prime minister is likely to make Kenyans look at how elections are conducted differently. The discussion on whether the prime minister should be executive or not will definitely dominate politics moving ahead.

There is also the charging of Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko with corruption. With Nairobi having no deputy governor, there is the possibility of the capital heading into a by-election in 2020.

President Kenyatta has kept most people guessing about his political play in the last two years. However, his newfound bond with ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi will be the new talking point.

Mudavadi has been working on his 2022 candidature since the end of the 2017 elections and even more after the Nasa fallout. He is, therefore, a key political player and his name will come up often, especially with his new bond with Uhuru.

Many people will also be watching Deputy President William Ruto’s moves, especially with the possible realignments.

Political developments in Mt Kenya and Ukambani will also be something to watch. The ongoing perceived rebellion against Uhuru and Kalonzo will shape politics in the New Year and beyond.

It will, therefore, be interesting to see how the two leaders navigate the politics and how their play will continue shaping the 2022 race.

The New Year will be a very interesting one to watch, with the implementation of the BBI report being the icing on the cake.

Wishing you all a happy and blessed 2020. Happy New Year!