Prof Macharia Munene /HANDOUT
In theory, the United Opposition and Linda Mwananchi could unite, depending on how serious each is about replacing President William Ruto. The focus is not on self, but on the very idea of defeating Ruto.
What Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi did was state what is already clear: if it is not you, then whom?
If Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is the second choice for everybody, then he stands a big chance of being the one—the most accepted. That's the way Mwai Kibaki became the one.
He was never number one for everybody. They used to say, "If it is not me, then the next one is Kibaki." So when the other contenders cancelled each other out, Kibaki was the one left standing.
For Fred Matiang'i, he is a latecomer in the game and appears to be very much pushed by Jeremiah Kioni. Kioni has come out in a very strong way to support him. But even for him, I think he will also say that if it is not him, then it is Kalonzo.
The
one person who seems to be quite forceful in terms of potentially becoming a
problem is Edwin Sifuna. He has also committed to unity and would like to build
a strong base so that even if he is not the candidate, his support base does
not erode. The aspirants would also like to retain their bases up to the last
minute.
Even
Rigathi Gachagua has indicated before that it doesn't have to be him. His
objective is to remove Ruto. But before then, he would like to maintain his
presumed base. He particularly has a major problem on his hands. He claims he
controls eight million votes, which is not the case.
An ideal ticket for the United Opposition would be Kalonzo and Sifuna. For one, Sifuna is still a young man, so the deputy presidency would be a good training ground. Serving as DP would give him time to reflect, think and strategise.
Kalonzo, on the other hand, is getting old. He doesn't have much time on his side. He has projected himself not as a very forceful man, but as the best alternative. That's why he looks ideal, as he is not a threat to anyone. He is a safe pair of hands, a diplomat who is careful about what he says and what he doesn't say.
So, I think they will all unite under Kalonzo and Sifuna. The others will negotiate for other positions.
The writer is a political analyst and history professor at USIU
