Aesop once told the story of ‘The Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing’. In the story, a Wolf finds great difficulty in getting at the sheep owing to the vigilance of the shepherd and his dogs. But one day it found the skin of a sheep that had been flayed and thrown aside, so it put it on over its own pelt and strolled down among the sheep.
The Lamb that belonged to the sheep, whose skin the Wolf was wearing, began to follow the Wolf in the Sheep’s clothing; so, leading the Lamb a little apart, he soon made a meal off her, and for some time he succeeded in deceiving the sheep and enjoying hearty meals.
This story cannot but be relevant to Kenya’s political scenario today where we are just one week to the election and opinion polls suggest that no candidate will get a majority round one win.
In one week, Kenyans will go to the ballot to elect leaders who will lead this country for the next five years. Without a doubt, winds of change are blowing across the nation and Kenyans want new leadership.
Looking at most opinion polls, it is clear that the 'undecided' voter takes a big chunk of the vote. Additionally, there is a group of voters who may not publicly express their views on whom they support but may already know who they intend to vote for.
This voter bloc will have silently approved or disapproved of something a candidate has done and their voice will only be heard on election day. It actually reminds me of the 2016 election in the US where all predictions were that Hilary Clinton would easily beat Donald Trump.
Many pundits and opinion polls had predicted that Clinton would take up Florida due to what was said to be a high Latino vote and Trump's rhetoric against the Latinos. Favourable reviews from pundits as well as leads in opinion polls, as we have seen in Kenya, should not be equated as a win on the ballot.
In every election, regardless of the jurisdiction, there has been a narrative that one can win an election when he/she is an incumbent or is supported by the incumbency and all the State machinery. This was proven to be fallacious as Obama, the entire Democratic Party and the entire state machinery threw their weight behind Clinton.
The Democrats, despite enjoying incumbency, had to experience a very difficult four years with no control of the presidency and both houses. In addition to losing the presidency, Democrats lost control of Congress and the Senate.
Coming back to the local scene, opinion polls suggest that though Raila Odinga is leading the presidential race, he is just two points ahead of William Ruto. At this time, both candidates enjoy some form of incumbency, though Raila appears more favoured by the state and its machinery than Ruto.
What the opinion polls are suggesting is that there is a huge number of voters who are undecided and who could easily be described as the silent majority. These voters hold the decisive card in next week’s election and not just at the national level but also locally.
The Mt Kenya region personifies the silent majority in every election. In the 2017 election, William Kabogo was almost sure that he would be reelected, only to lose because of propaganda that propped up days to the election. In my opinion, the silent majority had already decided and only needed a reason to voice what was already decided in their hearts.
In many elections, Mt Kenya voters pull surprises at the local level and we may just see this replicated next week at both the local and national levels. We are likely to see many politicians who believe they are at the top being humbled by voters.
The silent majority will definitely have their day next week and could sway this election either way in a manner that will surprise many. Even at the county level, not many are assured that they are as popular as they believe they are.
Political and communications consultant. @MachelWaikenda
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