At this point in the election cycle, with two clear frontrunners for the presidency identified and widely accepted as such, attention turns to the all-consuming question of whom they will choose as running mates.
The basic idea here is that “we know” the greater Kalenjin community will almost certainly vote to the very last man, for the Deputy President, Dr William Ruto. While the voters in Luo Nyanza cannot be swayed by any blandishments to vote for any but the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
So that is two major vote blocs accounted for. Beyond that, the race to add one or more of the ‘big tribes’ to a candidate’s tally begins. And in this context, the strategists for those leading candidates will be spending sleepless nights trying to figure out which such running mate would “bring the biggest basket of votes to the table”.
Here is where we encounter some deep mysteries.
For example, all three governors from the Lower Eastern region, also known as Ukambani, have come out very strongly in favour of Raila Odinga. These three are undoubtedly among the most powerful politicians in that region. However, there is one who – for all we know – may be more powerful than all of them combined. And this is former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka.
The political mystique around Kalonzo arises from the fact that back in 2007, when it was clear that the race was between the serving president Mwai Kibaki, and the ODM party leader, Raila, the overwhelming majority of the Akamba nonetheless voted for Kalonzo who came a distant third.
And in Kenya, that is the real test of any regional political kingpin. Not so much that the voters in your political backyard will vote for you because they think you are likely to win, but rather that they will still follow you when you are sure to lose.
Hence do you find that Kalonzo is still being treated with kid gloves by each of the two main political coalitions. It may well be that the three Ukambani governors have enough influence between them to ensure that Raila will get a massive harvest of votes from Ukambani. But they cannot risk underestimating Kalonzo either, as this would be disastrous.
This brings us to the Western Kenya vote, which is even harder to figure out than that of Ukambani.
Western Kenya has the unique distinction of having twice voted out a serving Vice President. That would be Musalia Mudavadi in 2002; and Moody Awori in 2007.
The odd thing is that each of these two men was a political heavyweight in his own right, and more significantly, each lost a seat that they had effortlessly held for decades. Mudavadi, then as now, was regarded as being “the gentleman of Kenyan politics” and a highly capable technocrat.
But not even Mudavadi (usually referred to simply by his first name, Musalia) could hold a torch to “Uncle Moody” as Awori was fondly referred to by just about every Kenyan. In some ways, Uncle Moody was even more popular within the country than the president he served. An elderly man who was always smiling; always dignified and calm; never once raised his voice; did not insult his opponents; and in general, a thoroughly decent man.
None of this helped him however when the 2007 general election came around. Far from being able to deliver any huge basket of votes for Kibaki, he lost his own parliamentary seat in Funyula.
You only need to compare the fates of Musalia and Uncle Moody with that of Kalonzo, to realise that there is something deeply puzzling about Western Kenya (ie, Luhya community) voting patterns.
In the current situation, we note that both Senator Moses Wetang’ula of Bungoma county (party leader of Ford Kenya) and Mudavadi (party leader, ANC) have turned their backs on Raila in this election cycle and cast their lot with Ruto. And this, after 10 years as loyalists in the Raila camp.
Such a move is supposed to suggest that a large number of Western Kenya voters who previously voted for Raila in 2013 and 2017, have also deserted him.
But have they really? Can we really know until the votes are cast?
