A survey by the Central Bank of Kenya has shown a decline in prices of key food items in March compared to February.
The survey conducted by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBK sought to gather indicative information on current and expected development in prices and output of select agricultural commodities to inform monetary policy decisions.
“Understanding the trends in the prices of basic agricultural commodities, output and challenges is vital, given the significant weight of food in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket and the important role of agriculture in the economy," CBK said.
"Moreover, given the high reliance on rain-fed farming, farmers are increasingly vulnerable to drought and unpredictable weather patterns due to climate change. These have implications not only on food security but also on price stability.”
The survey conducted from March 11 to 15, 2024, showed a general decline in food prices, especially cereals and processed foods.
It indicated the general downward trend in food prices is expected to continue in April 2024.
Agriculture CS Mithika Linturi said there has been a notable relief to consumers with respect to sugar.
"Sugar prices have been moderating since October 2023 after local sugar companies resumed operations following temporary closure in July 2023, to undergo annual maintenance. Expectations point to a decline informed by the reopening of local sugar factories and the moderation in global sugar prices," he said.
The price of sugar has been declining gradually and was lower in March, compared to February, with some outlets posting prices of about Sh330 per 2kg packet (Sh155 per kilo).
The CS also pointed out a decrease in prices of cereals and cereal products, which he said was mainly supported by the bumper harvest following favourable October-December 2023 rain season, with rainfall continuing into January 2024.
“There were notable declines in prices of maize flour, reflecting the impact of continued supply of maize to the market following favourable rainfall in 2023 that led to increased production of maize," Linturi said.
"The higher prices of green maize and peas in March 2024 reflect the influence of seasonal factors.”
According to the daily agriculture commodity market index by the Ministry of Agriculture, a 90kg bag of dry maize is wholesaling at between Sh4,000 and Sh4,900.
Dry onions are wholesaling at between Sh1,040 and Sh1,950 for 13kg.
A 50kg bag of kales or sukuma wiki is selling at between Sh750 and Sh1,500, while a kilo of spinach is selling at Sh40-Sh50. A crate of tomatoes is selling at between Sh3,840 and Sh5,120.
The March 2024 survey showed that retail prices of most non-vegetable items were generally lower in March as compared to February.
However, the survey established that retail prices of tomatoes and onions remain high.
Prices of loose maize grain, green grams and beans have been generally lower in the first quarter of 2024 compared to similar quarters in 2022 and 2023.
The prices of rice remained relatively stable in the first quarter of 2024, supported by local harvest in the period December 2023-February 2024.
A 90kg bag of rice is wholesaling at between Sh7,500 and Sh10,000.
In March 2024, all rice varieties experienced slight price declines, except pishori whose price increased slightly relative to February 2024.
The prices of fresh cow milk and packeted milk have remained stable over time, supported by favourable weather conditions, continued price offers in various outlets and government interventions.
A litre is selling at between Sh45 and Sh50, while packeted milk is selling at Sh60 to Sh65 in the retail markets.
The survey indicated that the latter specifically refers to the gazette notice published on March 17, 2023, which allowed animal feed manufacturers to import 500,000 tonnes of duty-free yellow maize before August 6, 2023, which helped to stabilise prices of animal feeds and resulted in increased milk production.
The survey showed transport and input costs remained the most significant factors affecting price of agricultural commodities.
However, there was a decline in the share of respondents who reported these factors as being significant.
“This could be attributable to the moderation of transport costs following four consecutive cycles of reduction in pump prices by Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority, and the government’s subsidised fertiliser initiative. Favourable weather conditions also continue to support a decrease in prices and an increase in output,” the survey read.
The survey showed a marked increase in the uptake of subsidised fertiliser in March 2024, where almost 70 per cent of sampled farmers benefited.
The March 2024 survey was conducted in wholesale and retail markets, and farms in major towns.
These included Nairobi Metropolitan, and neighbouring counties including Kiambu, Kajiado and Machakos.
Others are Naivasha, Gilgil, Nakuru, Narok, Bomet, Kericho, Kisumu, Mombasa, Kisii, Eldoret, Kitale, Nyandarua, Nyahururu, Mwea, Isebania, Meru, Nyeri, Isiolo, Oloitoktok, Namanga, Makueni and Molo.
