• Isolated storms and flash floods are a risk.
• Ongoing El Niño could last until at least next month. La Niña, which brings dry weather, may arrive later this year.
Image: Alice Waithera
The ongoing rains in many parts of the country, including Nairobi, will continue throughout the month, the weatherman predicts in the latest forecast.
That means March will be unusually wet, although there will be brief dry spells.
Dr David Gikungu, who directs the Meteorological department, said some areas will experience isolated episodes of heavy rainfall.
He said in general, most parts of the country are likely to experience above average rainfall in March.
“There is a possibility of isolated storms occurring, which could result in flash floods,” he said in a monthly forecast for March.
He cited flash floods danger particularly in the low-lying areas of the northern regions, the southeastern lowlands, the coastal region, parts of the Central and South Rift Valley, and inadequately drained urban areas.
The weatherman said farmers should still consult local agriculture extension officers to decide exactly when and what to plant.
Dr Gikungu issued the specific forecast for March a week after releasing a March-May long rains forecast showing above average heavy rains.
The new March forecast provides important insight into the rain distribution in the counties.
The rains are expected to continue throughout the month in the Rift Valley highlands and around Lake Victoria.
These regions cover the counties of Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Nandi, Siaya, Kisumu, Busia, Homa Bay, Migori, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga and Bungoma.
“The expected rainfall amounts are likely to exceed the long-term average for March,” Dr Gikungu said.
Rain is also expected throughout the month in Central and nearby parts of the Rift Valley, but there might be a short dry spell during the third week.
This region covers Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Murang'a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi counties.
Rains will also continue in Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta counties, with occasional breaks.
However, sunny and dry weather conditions will continue during the first half of the month in the coastal counties of Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale.
“Rainfall is anticipated during the third to fourth weeks of March over the South Coast and from the fourth week of March to the first week of April over the North Coast,” Gikungu said.
Counties in the northeastern region (Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Turkana and Samburu) will be sunny and dry but some areas will have occasional rainfall towards the end of the month.
Still, people in this region should expect rainfall above the long-term average rainfall.
Dr Gikungu said there is a chance of lightning strikes in areas such as Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Kakamega and Bungoma around Mt Elgon.
He advised the public against sheltering under trees or near metallic structures, when it is raining.
Despite the rains, temperatures will be higher than average for March across Kenya.
This forecast is attributed to the ongoing El Niño weather pattern, which influences global weather patterns and can lead to warmer temperatures in certain regions.
The World Meteorological Organization last year said the ongoing El Niño pattern could last at least until next month.
There is some consensus neutral conditions will follow, but some weather agencies predict La Nina, which typically brings dry weather to Kenya, may be experienced later in the year.