Soon after they expelled them in September last year, some opponents eying their seats went as far as calling themselves as ‘acting’ MPs in anticipation for by-elections.
Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda and MPs Felix Odiwuor, also known as Jalang'o, (Lang’ata), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo) and Elisha Odhiambo (Gem) were expelled by ODM's National Executive Committee after it was determined that their actions went against the official party position.
They, however, moved to court to overturn the NEC decision. The Political Parties Tribunal ruled against the party and quashed the expulsion of the five MPs.
The tribunal found the expulsion of the MPs to be irregular.
It also found the ODM disciplinary committee not properly constituted rendering the decision of NEC invalid.
The rebel MPs, once staunch supporters of ODM, have now found themselves at odds with the party leadership, prompting a surge in mobilisation efforts by their opponents ahead of the 2027 election.
In fact, ODM leader Raila Odinga on February 4 asked the rebels to resign from the party if they want to work with Kenya Kwanza.
"We have agreed that all those elected as MPs in our parties have a term of five years. If you want to leave ODM and join UDA, then leave Parliament and return to the people to be re-elected under UDA," he said.
But the MPs have remained adamant, maintaining that they are in ODM to stay.
Since the enactment of the Political Parties Act 2011, no party has succeeded in expelling either elected or nominated members.
The Act lays out grounds when a member can be deemed to have resigned from a party and among them promoting the ideology, interests, or policies of another political party, the single most common clause used by parties while expelling their members.
ODM has many times, albeit unsuccessfully, relied on the clause to expel its rebel MPs.
Reacting to calls to resign, Jalang’o said he has no problem going back to voters and asking them to re-elect him but he would still do that on an ODM ticket.
“I’m man enough, the question is even if I were to resign today, there is no IEBC. There’s no one to conduct elections,” he said during an interview on Obinna TV on February 6.
With the prospects of by-elections waning, opponents of the rebels have since started to mobilise support ahead of 2027 election.
In Gem and Bondo constituencies, Odhiambo and Ochanda have already been replaced as party officials.
Political analyst Fred Sasia said rebel ODM MPs remain resolute in their belief that they still hold a significant chance in the upcoming polls.
“Their confidence stems from various factors, including their belief that the Baba effect is diminishing by day. They [also] hope UDA and President Ruto will be embraced in Luo Nyanza and that they can resonate with the electorate on key issues affecting their constituencies,” he said.
Sasia added that the rebels' assertion that they can secure victory even within the ODM primaries in 2027 reflects their determination to challenge the status quo and assert their influence within the party.
“However, while the rebel MPs exude confidence in their electoral prospects, they face formidable challenges on multiple fronts. Direct attack from ODM top brass and vehement opposition from party loyalists will definitely be a herculean political nightmare for them,” he said.
The analyst said that intense mobilisation efforts by their opponents underscore the fierce competition they will face in the upcoming elections.
Nominated MP John Mbadi, who is also the ODM chairman, is said to be mobilising support in Suba South.
Mbadi was the area MP for two terms beating Omondi. He declared interest in the Homa Bay gubernatorial contest before he was prevailed upon to step down in favour of Governor Gladys Wanga in 2022 and was nominated to the National Assembly.
With Omondi warming up to Ruto and UDA, he appears to have seen a window that he hopes to exploit to kick out his arch-rival.
Political commentator Joseph Mutua said the MPs stand no chance of winning back their seats if Raila will sustain his campaign of fighting Ruto all the way to the ballot.
“The ODM rebels can only survive if Raila decides to back the candidature of Ruto in 2027 polls. They will tell the voters; ‘look, we had made the right decision. Baba has vindicated us,’” Mutua said.
He added that the rebels will however need to seek Baba’s blessings.
“Here, I'm talking of the rebels who hailed from his strongholds, particularly Luo Nyanza. For the rebels in other regions, the story might be different,” he said.
In Gem where Odhiambo is doing his second term, several newcomers have emerged. Leading the pack is Kisumu City manager Abala Wanga.
He has reinvigorated his political presence and activities in Gem and leads weekly harambees for various groups and institutions, including sponsoring needy students from Gem to access education.
Siaya Woman Representative Christine Oduor Ombaka has declared interest in the seat as well.
Others interested in succeeding Odhiambo are Jalang’o Midiwo, Booker Washington Omole, Isaiah Ndiege and James Wamban.
Sasia said that the confidence of the MPs and their bold assertions ahead of the 2027 election signify a significant development in Kenya's political arena.
“While their confidence may be commendable, the road to their re-election remains fraught with challenges. As the political landscape continues to evolve, it will be interesting to monitor how these dynamics unfold and their implications on regional and party politics,” he said.
He pointed out that the political landscape in Kenya is “notoriously” volatile, characterised by shifting alliances, ethnic dynamics and regional interests.
On February 11, Ojienda called for respect among leaders, adding that politics evolves fast.
"Let us respect each other because you do not know how politics will evolve. The people you are insulting today are the people you will work with tomorrow," he said.
The senator said even though he is a member of ODM, he will still work with the government for development's sake.
Ojienda declared himself a member of ODM despite mounting calls by the party leadership for him and others to resign.
Sasia said the MPs must navigate complex political terrain and adapt their strategies to effectively engage with voters and consolidate their support base.
Government spokesman Isaac Mwaura is the only politician who came close to losing his seat after being expelled by his party.
In February 2021, Mwaura, who this time had been nominated as a Senator by Jubilee after ditching ODM, was suspended alongside Senator Mary Yiane, Naomi Waqo, Millicent Omanga, Prengei Victor, Iman Dekow and Gona Christine Zawadi.
While others were pardoned, his expulsion was taken to a higher notch after the Political Parties Tribunal allowed the party’s decision, a move that saw his name de-gazetted leading to a protracted legal battle between him and then ruling party.
It was the closest attempt by a political party to expel its member.
Mwaura stayed in the political cold for seven months and only got a reprieve after the High Court quashed the decision.
