Rains are expected to reduce slightly towards the weekend, easing rescue efforts in areas that are already flooding.
The Met department's five-day forecast shows most places are likely to receive rains, but intensities may reduce slightly.
Only the North-western counties of Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to go dry, from Friday.
“Rainfall is expected to continue over most parts of the country,” head of the Meteorological department Dr David Gikungu said.
“Isolated storms are likely to occur in some parts of the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the South-eastern lowlands, the Coast and Northeastern Kenya.”
Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki said on Monday 46 people have died across the country due to the ongoing heavy rain that has caused floods and displacement.
“We have lost 46 people because of drowning and floods and we don’t want any single Kenyan to lose their lives. Please comply with directive by security officers and if you don’t comply, we will force you to comply,” he said.
The current enhanced rainfall is as a result of the El Niño phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which drives rains into East Africa.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the El Niño event is expected to last at least until April 2024, influencing weather patterns and contributing to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean.
However, the enhanced rains in Kenya may last until January, when the short rains season normally ends.
“The probability for above-normal rainfall is enhanced in the Indian Ocean north of the equator and extends towards the eastern coast of Africa and into the Greater Horn of Africa, where along the equator it extends further towards western Africa,” WHO said in a statement.
The El Niño developed rapidly during July-August, and reached moderate strength by September, and is likely to peak as a strong event in November-January 2024.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically last nine to 12 months. It is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. But it takes place in the context of a climate being changed by human activities.
“El Niño impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024. But as a result of record high land and sea-surface temperatures since June, the year 2023 is now on track to be the warmest year on record. Next year may be even warmer. This is clearly and unequivocally due to the contribution of the increasing concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases from human activities,” WMO secretary general Prof Petteri Taalas said.
“Extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. That is why WMO is committed to the Early Warnings For All initiative to save lives and minimise economic losses.”
The previous warmest year on record was 2016 due to a “double whammy” of an exceptionally strong El Niño and climate change.
WMO said a strong El Niño does not necessarily mean strong El Niño impacts locally.
“It is important to note that El Niño is not the only factor that drives global and regional climate patterns, and that the magnitudes of El Niño indicators do not directly correspond to the magnitudes of their effects. No two El Niño events are alike,” WMO said.
