As the English say, success has many fathers, while failure is an orphan. Since Azimio La Umoja coalition party lost the August 9 general election, things have never been the same again.
Leaders have been in denial that they lost, complaining how the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission bungled the polls.
While such pronouncements previously would have rallied the masses against the government, this time round, even their own supporters were unmotivated.
This is interesting noting that the presidential election was as close as that of the 2007, with a margin of only 235,000 votes. The ‘myth’ of opaqueness around the servers couldn’t fly since this time round, as the IEBC made it transparent such that anyone across the world just needed a calculator to tally the final presidential results in real time.
The masses therefore weren’t convinced that any fraud was conducted by IEBC. Further, the conduct of the now famous Cherera 4 opaque commissioners left a lot to be desired, and it was evidently clear that they were working at the behest of azimio.
The fact that Raila was fully supported by President Uhuru Kenyatta, who declared his endorsement publicly, made the opposition overconfident, thus downplaying the ‘foul play’ narrative that had been peddled in yesteryears.
In fact, it’s Oburu Oginga, Raila’s elder brother and now Siaya senator, who said were unbeatable since they had the ‘deep state’ on their side. This turned out to be a mirage since nothing like that happened.
Deep state is the illusion that senior government employees have that they have the power to influence the people in choosing who shall be their new employer.
The police followed the law, and other government apparatus functioned impartially, apart from some few administrators. When Raila tried to rally the masses at Jevanjee gardens, nothing much happened.
And nowadays, when he speaks in public or at press conferences, the thunder with which his voice once commanded is long gone. At functions, one can observe the chatter amongst the crowds, yet only recently, one could hear a pin drop as ‘Baba’ moved the masses.
The grumbling has now extended to the Azimio leadership itself, with mass exodus in three distinct waves. The first was between August 15, when IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati announced William Ruto as the president-elect, and September 13, when the latter was sworn into office.
UDM party led by Mandera Senator Ali Roba was the first to cross over with seven MPs and over 40 MCAs. Then followed Kiraitu Murungi’s DEP, and Davis Ochieng’s MGP, with a host of former MPs from Nyanza and through Eliud Owalo now CS. Soon, James Ongwae, Janet Ong’era, Jimmy Angwenyi and a host of other leaders from the Kisii community followed.
The second wave of defections happened after the President assumed office and before the expiry of the 90 days clause that bound the plethora of Azimio parties together.
This largely happened silently amongst individual MPs and senators, especially looking at the manner in which they voted in parliament. To begin with, 10 out of 12 Independents had pledged support to Kenya Kwanza during the first wave of defections. However, the difference between these two coalitions in terms of numbers at the National Assembly was 179 (Kenya Kwanza) versus 158 (Azimio). However, in the final tally for the speaker, Moses Wetangula got 215 votes against Marende’s 132. In the Senate, Kingi got 46 votes against Kalonzo’s 13 votes. This clearly demonstrated that individual legislators were keen on voting independently. ‘
Then came the sharing of leadership positions in the House and the first casualty was Babu Owino, who had reportedly been promised to chair the Public Accounts Committee. He cried foul that John Mbadi had taken his slot. His problems started when he declared that he was ‘ready’ to take over from where ‘Baba’ left. Senator Okong’o Omogeni had to be assuaged with a PSC commissioner slot, and ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna had to step down as deputy Minority whip for Ledama Olekna to be accommodated.
The third exodus is now happening after the 90 days post-election Azimio gag period has lapsed. Jubliee legislators have for all intents and purposes left.
Led by Sabina Chege and Sarah Korere, they have accused ODM of political conmanship and banditry. Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu has openly protested against Winnie Odinga’s choice as EALA legislator and pledging allegiance to Rigathi Gachagua.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni has declared that they are now done with Raila, having paid the debt from the mountain. Former Kieni MP Kanini Keega is also crying foul that Azimio abandoned him at his hour of need as he sought EALA seat, yet he had stuck his neck out for them.
ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya has also severed links with Raila, in pursuit of Luhya unity. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi met all Luhya elected leaders this week in a move seen to consolidate his grip on the Mulembe nation.
The ODM National Executive Committee has further seen notables such, Florence Mutua the deputy secretary general, Wafula Buke, a director and a host of others tender their resignations.
For all intents and purposes, Azimio la Umoja linazimia.
The question is, is this good or bad for opposition politics and democracy?
