At the time of writing this, the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties had indicated that the number of applicants resigning from parties to vie as independents in the August elections was headed for the 10,000 mark. It was a record.
However, it spoke more to the level of disillusionment with the conduct of party primaries, more than anything else. I have opined here in recent weeks that by the 2027 elections, big parties as we know them will be no more, and everyone who can register a party will have one.
In Kenya’s multiparty era, parties have existed largely to serve the whims of their owners, usually powerful men from big tribes, carrying the aspirations and ambitions of their tribes, alongside the allies of those communities. But in exercising this unofficial mandate, party leaders and their court jesters have overreached this goodwill and attempted to determine who gets what at all levels, including the more village pursuits such as the MCA seats.
In response, more and more people, if the number of candidates registering as independents is anything to go by, are saying enough is enough, and charting their own political destinies outside the parties’ realm.
There are political realities to go with this. In ODM, for example, the conversation within the Azimio Coalition of party boss Raila Odinga possibly running for only one term, means that even if it is swept below the carpet for now, party succession ranks high among stakeholders. And it isn’t as much a succession talk as it is about whether the party will still be there, strong enough and dominant in certain zones, by the time 2027 comes around.
Within Jubilee, even though they may enthusiastically swear that President Uhuru Kenyatta will remain party leader and exercise influence after the August elections, they know for a fact that when the power of incumbency ends, this lofty dream will perish with it.
Essentially, therefore, the two senior Azimio parties walk a tightrope that most of their partners and opponents don’t. It would have been in their interests to conduct the most credible primaries, both as a way of injecting new blood and ideas into the next phase of their politics and consolidating grassroots support ahead of their internal transitions.
If you ask me, the next Parliament’s single largest part may be UDA. Overall, I believe the Azimio coalition will win the presidency and be the largest coalition in Parliament. But as soon as the chips fall in place post-election, as with Narc in 2003, Azimio parties will begin caucusing as single entities and pushing their own interests away from the coalition, making it an unpredictable arrangement born of short-term aspirations. This is especially so because they will go into the August poll with at least four senior politicians and public servants feeling they should have made the pick for running mate.
If Kalonzo Musyoka’s noises about that slot are uncomfortable now, wait until after elections to see the real drama. But beyond the UDA and the Azimio divide in the coming 13th Parliament, I am persuaded that independent candidates will have brought in enough numbers in both Houses, and in the county assemblies, to give the two big coalitions a reality check.
The truth is, I find this independent wave long overdue. The opaque manner in which parties handle their nominations amounts to political slavery. If you have been to the offices of the hugely overrated elections boards of Kenya’s parties, you will have encountered the painful tears and desperation of people whose dreams have been shattered by less-than-fair processes, coupled with a closed society mentality where no officer of the board comes out to address issues arising from the concluded primaries. Nothing is more disrespectful.
I submit that the independent candidates across the country, if they make a substantial mark in August, offer the best platform for a renewal of the multiparty spirit, a renaissance of our politics and possibly, future parties more grounded in principles and shared values.
There was a time one would have believed that with funding from the Political Parties Fund, parties would finally establish the operational structures and ground presence to run organisations much more responsive to the needs of the voters.
On the evidence of skewed party primaries, poor attempts at registration of members and internal management of affairs, I can comfortably say there has been a regression instead. And now the droves of people seeking independent tickets are unequivocally telling the parties that they have failed to inspire. It may be a sad thing to say, but the failure the variant multiparty democracy, that was envisaged by the liberation heroes, leaves only one route for whatever sort of recourse we can extract: A direct contest at the ballot.
It may mean some voters having to pick from as many as 50 candidates for one seat, but this would be a small price to pay considering the alternative. In any case, the younger generation of voters is more and more out of touch with the history of party democracy in this country and is prone to making an individual choice at the ballot.
Those of us who adore parties because we were witnesses to the Second Liberation and its push for greater political freedoms and more political parties to express free will, are becoming fewer at every election.
The history of this country shows that after every election, the winner of the presidential vote, perhaps with the exception of President Daniel Moi, shuns the party that got him to power, and instead embraces the civil service to run government. This is the reason Narc, PNU, TNA and Jubilee all won elections once, but got to the next one as shells of themselves.
If we go by this pattern, the party or coalition that wins the forthcoming election will probably not even be a contender in 2027. Like the others before it, on its deathbed will be dreams and aspirations cut short by poor management and a dearth of internal democracy.
The sum total of it is that if there are a large number of people elected as independents, alongside the anticipated collapse of the big parties after the elections, we would finally get a chance to have a national conversation on whether we can continue on this unpredictable path or we can recalibrate our democracy to fit the times.
On that score alone, I hope the independent wave sweeps the board because multiparty democracy, as is currently practiced in Kenya, is not sustainable, and something has got to give soon.
