Deputy President William Ruto faces a dilemma and tough options as the push for a change in governance structure gains momentum.
Ruto has found himself in a catch-22 situation over whether or not to support a parliamentary system with a powerful prime minister, possibly two deputies and a weakened president — a system backed by his rivals.
Ruto wants to be president, a strong one, not a ceremonial one.
He is walking a tightrope. His support among pastoralist communities too is facing a litmus test as they too back a parliamentary system.
Should Ruto decide to back a parliamentary system, generally said to be the recommendation of the Building Bridges Initiative, then he might find himself on the same side with his foes.
The exact nature of the proposed parliamentary system is not clear and there are hybrid systems.
The DP could find himself at cross-purposes with key political lieutenants from the restive Mt Kenya region, which is backing a presidential system.
While he ponders his best course of action, debate is sweeping the country over the most suitable governance structure as the country awaits the BBI report.
The report has been completed, ready to be handed over to President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga.
The nation waits anxiously. The cause of the delay is not known.
The DP also does not want to jeopardise his already uneasy relationship with the president by making radical decisions contradicting him.
Uhuru himself has said it's necessary to change in the constitution and has criticised the winner-take-all system that excludes losers. He has not been more specific.
That is why the DP has continuously vented his anger on Raila, whom he has called the architect of the Building Bridges Initiative, a result of the handshake.
The DP has been categorical that the handshake deal was a scheme by Raila and to advance his selfish interests by expanding the Executive and rewarding himself and his allies.
Ruto's camp is jittery that the deep state opposes his bid to succeed Uhuru and rig him out.
Should the DP continue to push for the current, winner-take-all presidential system that divides communities, his ambitions could be crushed, if the ongoing manoeuvres to kill his march to State House are anything to go by.
Some politicians and analysts claim the DP's best chance of rising to the apex of power lies in a parliamentary system, because of the numbers he enjoys in Parliament.
The DP currently controls the 349-member bicameral House after propelling most of his allies to Parliament and orchestrating the downfall of his critics countrywide.
Ruto Rift Valley backyard commands nearly a quarter of the country's 290 constituencies — 75 — making him a formidable force with a strategic vote bloc.
Many argue that should Ruto support a parliamentary system, he would become a major force in the battle for a powerful prime minister.
But the DP has poured scorn on the BBI and its expected recommendations, saying it will suffer the same fate that befell the Punguza Mizigo initiative, which was rejected by a majority of the county assemblies.
"It is only this man of vitendawili (parables) [meaning Raila] who wants laws to be changed. That is why he has come up with the Building Bridges Initiative, which is tiring Kenyans by asking them questions that can't help them solve their problems," Ruto said last month.
He added, "Jubilee MPs should not allow themselves to be drawn by Odinga into debate on the Constitution. What is important this time is to initiate development projects which can benefit Kenyans."
Despite Ruto's bravado in public, the Star has established that his camp is uneasy and sharply divided over the possible shift in the governance structure.
While the Mt Kenya region is divided between backing parliamentary and presidential systems, the DP's key support base of pastoralist and marginalised communities supports a parliamentary system.
On Thursday ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna said the DP is using the upcoming Kibra by-election on Thursday, November 7 as a springboard for his pro-presidential system campaign in the expected referendum.
"It is obvious the DP has started a campaign against BBI even before the contents of its report are made public. The DP and his ilk have panicked," Sifuna said during a talk show on Wednesday night.
In a scathing attack at a parliamentary system, Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa said Kenyans should be allowed to elect their president directly.
"We want to elect our own President. We shall not accept the proposal that 50 MPs sit in Parliament to elect a president for us," she said.
Isiolo Woman Representative Rehema Jaldesa, a key Ruto ally, said Kenyans will not allow a few individuals to elect a president for them.
“The Constitution should first be fully implemented before plans to change it are brought to Kenyans,” she said.
compounding the DP's problems, National Assembly Majority leader Aden Duale, considered the Northern Kenya political kingpin, has backed a parliamentary system. He says it would address the problem of marginalised regions.
Duale says he will support Raila's calls for a constitutional review only if they will push the country into a parliamentary system.
“I have been consistent since the 2010 constitutional change process that the best governance system for Kenya should be the parliamentary one, where all communities will have an opportunity to lead the country, ” Duale said.
However, MPs from Uhuru's backyard have promised to shoot down any attempts to alter the presidential system.
They have said that while the region has a huge population, they are under-represented in parliamentary seats.
Raila's supporters have backed the push for a parliamentary system saying it would be the only way to resolve historical injustices, rectify exclusion and foster national unity.
Ruto unveiled his onslaught against a parliamentary system on February 8 in a speech he delivered at Chatham House in London. He supported the current system in which the president and DP are elected jointly.
He called for a strong opposition, with the leader of the party that comes second and his or her running mate assuming leadership of the Official Opposition in Parliament.
"The suggestion of the Prime Minister's post has two problems: It does not solve the problem, which is that we need a functional, constitutional official opposition; and if created, it would still be taken by the winning party,” Ruto said at Chatham House.
Some argue that the push to overhaul the current order could breathe life into Ruto's governance proposal and pave the way for his presidency in 2022.
On Thursday, university professor and political analysts Macharia Munene said the Deputy President could be facing tough times but said Ruto was a calculating politician.
The United States International University don said, "Ruto is a smart politician. He does not shy away from making his position known even when he stands alone. That is a very admirable quality."
He said with three years to the 2022 General election, the DP is treading carefully, knowing that the current debate could become irrelevant.
"Ruto wants the people of Kenya to decide who becomes their president," he said.
The DP has been traversing the country, holding harambees and strategy meetings to lay the ground for his presidential bid, defying President Kenyatta's warning against early campaigning. He says he's just doing his job.
In March this year, a poll by Infotrak and the Integrated Development Network, showed that Uhuru and Ruto’s political bastions are opposed to an executive Prime Minister.
The poll indicated that Central Kenya, Uhuru’s political bedrock, tops the list of old defunct provinces where residents oppose an expanded Executive.
Statistics indicate that only 26 per cent of the population in the four Central Kenya counties support an executive PM. They believe they will benefit from directly electing 'one of their own' to State House.
This was followed by Ruto’s Rift Valley backyard and Western, with only 31 per cent and 32 per cent of polled residents supporting a PM, respectively.
Overall, that poll suggests support for an executive PM stands at 41 per cent countrywide.
“A majority of Kenyans (72 per cent), across the eight regions, prefer the presidential system of government and would like to elect their President directly,” the pollsters said.
