South Sudan instability could collapse Kenya’s refugee plan, trigger new crisis, EU warns

EU Ambassador Henriette Geiger during a press briefing at the EU Delegation mission in Westlands on Tuesday, November 18, 2025

The European Union has issued a stark warning that renewed instability in South Sudan could derail Kenya’s ambitious “Shirika Plan” to integrate over 800,000 refugees.

EU Ambassador Henriette Geiger expressed the concerns during a media briefing on the upcoming EU-AU seventh summit in Angola on November 24-25.

Ambassador Geiger said Kenya will during the summit hold a side meeting on South Sudan, even as she underscored how closely Kenya’s refugee strategy is tied to developments in its troubled neighbour.

She warned that unless South Sudan is stabilised, its unraveling would “quickly destabilise the whole region,” triggering fresh refugee flows into Kenya. She cautioned that such an escalation could overwhelm the country’s systems and undermine years of integration efforts.

“The stability of South Sudan is vital for Kenya’s stability. One example is the Shirika Plan. We’re talking about integrating the more than 800,000 refugees into their host communities.

“Now imagine South Sudan blows up—there will be millions of new refugees coming in. Then what to do? First, Shirika goes down the drain, and then Kenya has a new problem with millions of refugees—and overall support for refugees is going down,” Amb Geiger said.

She noted that preventing a conflict is far better than intervening in the aftermath.

Kenya’s Shirika Plan aims to absorb refugees into host communities and reduce pressure on crowded camps. But Geiger warned that a violent escalation in South Sudan could upend that model, sending potentially millions fleeing across the border if political dialogue fails.

South Sudan has seen a sharp spike in violence since February 2025, especially in Upper Nile State, with renewed communal clashes in counties such as Nasir, Baliet and Fangak, according UNHCR.

These hostilities have triggered internal displacement in South Sudan and cross-border flight.

Already, UNHCR in South Sudan has said the renewed fighting has forced hundreds of thousands to flee once again.

The commission says the renewed violence has forced at least 300,000 people out of the country, with 25,000 ending up in Kenya.

This worsens an already dire regional refugee crisis.

Kenya already hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees in Garissa’s Dadaab camp and and Turkana’s Kakuma camp.

The country, the camps and aid agencies are now grappling with a fresh wave of arrivals despite limited resources and stretched humanitarian systems.

Already, Kenya is hosting 854,876 registered refugees and asylum seekers from more than 20 countries as of June this year, straining local resources.

Ambassador Geiger pointed out that Kenya’s current refugee numbers make the country vulnerable, and any large-scale return of instability could reverse years of progress under the Shirika Plan.

To avert a potential humanitarian catastrophe, Kenya is spearheading a major diplomatic initiative at the upcoming EU–African Union summit.

In the high-level ministerial side meeting, Kenya will host frontline states directly affected by South Sudan—including Ethiopia and Uganda—along with South Africa, EU representatives, and the “Troika” of South Sudan external partners (the UK, the US, and Norway).

Geiger described the move as a “very laudable” effort by Kenya to revive dialogue on South Sudan’s future, following the stalling of the Tumaini process.

The EU’s alarm comes amid a broader regional turbulence that compounds the urgency. Sudan, neighbouring South Sudan, remains mired in a brutal civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Such instability in Sudan threatens to fuel more displacement across the region.

As of mid-2025, more than 80,000 people, including some 45,000 South Sudanese, have fled into Sudan, creating further strain on refugee and humanitarian systems, UNHCR says.

Geiger said the EU’s engagement is pushing for preventative diplomacy as well as support for regional institutions such as IGAD.

With the EU special envoy for the Horn of Africa headed to Nairobi next week—and expected to attend the high-level South Sudan meeting—the EU is signalling more interest in the region in the face of escalating tensions in the Horn.