The opposition faces a herculean task in its political battle against President William Ruto as the UDA boss appears keen to replay his 2022 political strategy.
Ruto has kicked off development trips across the countries, which are laced with heavy political undertones.
The script appears similar to his 2022 election plan that began soon after the 2017 general election.
Ruto, then the deputy president, visited every part of the country to inspect development projects.
Retired President Uhuru Kenyatta disparagingly christened the visits "tangatanga" portraying Ruto as a loitering leader.
Since the year began, the President has presided over more than 30 activities, addressing wananchi in stops at various counties in his Rift Valley backyard, Mt Kenya and Western.
The president made stops in Elgeyo Marakwet, his home county of Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Laikipia and Nyandarua counties unleashing goodies for the people.
The Star has established that in the first two months of the year, the President plans to concentrate his meetings in his strongholds – Rift Valley and Central, with stops in Western.
While political analysts point out that it is “still too early to tell”, they hold that both sides have 'hit the road running as they have work cut out."
Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, said the campaigns for 2027 are on, citing the events in Busia and Kisii as tell-tale signs.
“Campaigns are on. Even what is happening in Busia, Kisii are part of the campaigns,” he said.
For Nyambuga, it will be tricky for the Raila side to upstage the sitting president, adding that the latter appears to be tackling the issues drowning his popularity.
“Fuel, for instance, is one point they can pick. The prices have gone down at the same rate in two consecutive months. Having said it would go down further, Kenya Kwanza could easily change the narrative.”
In his last lap before retreating to Nairobi for Cabinet engagements, President Ruto hosted a couple of meetings with political leaders.
He met Jubilee MCAs in Nakuru, where he had shifted his operations, in what could lift the lid on the elaborate political plan to undercut Azimio.
The president inaugurated a children’s hospital in Iten on Sunday right after attending an interdenominational prayer service.
A day earlier, he launched a 40-km road in Kuresoi North, Nakuru County linking Kiambiriria through Kuresoi to Chepsir. He also addressed locals.
Ruto launched affordable housing project in Bondeni after commissioning a substation to serve Naivasha special economic zone.
On January 11, he inspected the construction of Nyadarua affordable housing project in OlKalou and also commissioned a sewerage treatment plant in the area.
The President also launched several road projects in Ol Jorok - 400 plus kilometers, which he said will help transport milk, vegetables, and potatoes from the county.
“This will help the produce reach the market in time and in the long run boost farmers' earnings and create opportunities for our youth,” Ruto said.
The head of state also commissioned the New KCC Nyahururu factory, which he said, will process 150,000 litres from the current 80,000 litres per day.
He also commissioned tarmacking of access roads in Lamuria, Laikipia county as part of the journey that also included what he termed a nostalgic return to Kamagut Primary School.
In fulfilment of the saying “charity begins at home”, President Ruto laid the foundation stone for the school’s facelift of the school through the support of the Mpesa Foundation.
Raila, ostensibly stung by the apparent Ruto early forays, has also rolled out a 30-day campaign blitz to popularise his party ODM.
The former Prime Minister has been to Homa Bay, Busia, Vihiga, and Bungoma to rally his troops to prepare for the next elections.
All factors remaining constant, pundits believe Raila is equally laying the ground for a sixth stab at the presidency.
But for Ruto's allies, the ODM leader would barely scratch the surface, especially now that their party leader is buoyed by the advantage of holding the carrot and the stick of the state.
EALA MP David Sankok said the president’s competitors, especially Raila, know the answer to the question of whether the opposition will upstage Ruto.
“Every Kenyan knows that after [Daniel] Moi, Ruto is the professor of politics. If he was able to defeat the system, deep state, a sitting president with all instruments of power, what about now?” he asked.
Sankok described the President as one politician who is “both street smart and book smart” and one who has proven the same in the past.
“He defeated them in the BBI. It is hard to defeat someone who has branded himself and his politics. Ruto is a super politician,” the EALA MP said.
“For someone to survive in politics, they have to be smart bookwise and streetwise.”
Even so, Ruto faces threats to his popularity following the cost of living nightmare on his administration.
His nemesis Raila has seized the growing grumbles to woo the masses to oppose the regime and opt for his Azimio side.
However he faces hurdles in the wake of competing interests within the opposition quarters.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has declared his bid to fight it out with Ruto in the next election.
Azimio is also divided, with Kalonzo not having it easy with Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni said to defeat Ruto, a counter strategy would suffice for the Raila led side.
Kioni told the Star that they foresee danger if the jostle in Azimio takes the path of a ‘one man takeover’.
“We just need to organise ourselves so that it doesn’t come out as a one man takeover. I believe Kenyans don’t want to entrust leadership in the hands of one man,” he said.
The former Ndaragwa MP said the grudging response towards the Kenya Kwanza regime was a strong signal “Kenyans want to give leadership to a team.”
“It is not for any of them [principals] to say they are running for presidency but for Azimio to know that Kenyans want an alternative to UDA,” he said.
Kioni said having worked as a team, Azimio can do more when together and will push Ruto to the corner.
“It is upon us as Azimio to ensure we are organised. We should not show greed. Our dealings should be an issue of mutual respect,” the former MP said.
For him, to outsmart Ruto, Azimio should focus on driving those disgruntled by UDA into their fold.
Martin Andati said Ruto has a lot to do ‘having not started very well’, especially on appointments.
“He overpopulated his government with cronies which didn’t go well,” he said.
“The opposition is not looking organised. They have to agree on who is the candidate, whether it is Raila or Kalonzo, and market the person early enough.”
In the backdrop of the moves is the assertion that the president may have been alarmed by signs of his waning support.
Nothing could paint a picture of the president’s support than the performance rating of the ruling party, UDA.
The party enjoys 31 per cent support in the country despite having been the favourite in the lead-up to the 2022 general elections.
Notably reduced support has been reported in Ruto’s main political bases of Mt Kenya and Rift Valley with the party doing 40 per cent in the latter.
In Central Rift, the Tifa survey polled UDA at 49 per cent and 41 per cent for the case of the South Rift and less than 30 per cent in other regions.
“The slight narrowing of the gap between UDA and ODM (from 16 to 9 per cent), evidently a consequence of the increasing despondency among many Kenyans about the rising cost of living,” Tifa chief Tom Wolf said.
