Since independence in 1963 and with the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution, Kenya has conducted 11 general elections. The next one is due on August 9 in less than three months.
The first post-independence single party general election was held in 1969, and the subsequent ones in 1974, 1979, 1983 1988, 1992 (first multiparty), 1997, 2002 and 2007. The 2013 and 2017 were held under the new dispensation.
Going forward, it is prudent to examine the extent to which leadership legitimacy through previous general elections has been achieved.
In the 1969 general election, there were 3,784,276 registered voters and the turnout was 1,687,734 representing 44.6 per cent of the valid ballots cast.
In 1974, there were 4,654,465 registered voters and a turnout of 2,627,308, representing 56.5 per cent of valid ballots cast. Notably, there was a marginal increase in the voter registration and turnout of 870,189 (23 per cent) and 1,156,968 (44 per cent) respectively.
In the 1979 general election, the first under the second president, there were 5,602,110 registered voters and the turnout was 3,733,537, representing 67.3 per cent of the valid ballots cast.
In 1983, there were 7,035,583 registered voters, with a turnout of 3,331,047, representing 48.2 per cent of valid ballots cast. Between the two elections — four years — there was a voter registration increase of 1,433,473 (26 per cent) and turnout decrease of -402,490 (-11 per cent)
In the Mlolongo Kanu primaries of 1988 and the subsequent general election, there were 5,562,981 registered voters, with a turn out of 2,231,229 people. representing 40.7 per cent of valid ballots cast. From 1983 to 1988, there was a voter registration and turnout decline of -1,472,602 (-21 per cent), and -1,099,818 (-33 per cent) respectively.
The next phase analytical phase is during the multiparty general elections from 1992 to 2007 and prior to promulgation of the 2010 Constitution.
In the 1992 first presidential and general election combined, there were 7, 900,366 registered voters and a turnout of 5,270,516 people, representing 69.4 per cent of the valid ballots cast.
In 1997 there were 9,063,390 registered voters the turnout was 6,189,684, representing of 68 per cent valid ballots cast. Between the two elections, there was voter registration turnout increase of 1,163,024 (14 per cent) and 919,168 (17 per cent) in that order.
In comparison between 1988 single party and 1992 multiparty election, there was a remarkable increase in registered voters and turnout 2,337,385 (42 per cent) and 3,039,287 (136 per cent) respectively.
In the 2002 general election, there were 10,451,150 registered voters the turnout was 5,975,910 representing 57 per cent of the valid votes. In 2007, there were 14,296,180 registered voters and a turnout of 9,877,028. This represented 69 per cent of valid votes. Between the two first multiparty elections, there was a voter registration and turnout increase of 3,845,030 (37 per cent) and 3,901,118 (65 per cent) correspondingly.
In the scrutiny of electoral outcomes, the voter turnout increase in two elections was highest between the years 2002 to 2007, when there was a hotly disputed election presidential result. Similarly, the outliers are the periods 1979, 1983 to 1988, when there was a decline in voter registration and turn out.
To gain further insight in the electoral process, an analysis of the voter turnout during the second referendum in 2010 is fundamental. According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, records indicate there were 12,616,627 registered voters and 8,887,652 vote.
The outcome of the 2010 referendum was determined as follows.
The Yes camp had 6,092,593 votes (68.55 per cent per cent), while the No camp garnered 2,795,059, representing 31.5 per cent.
There were no rejected, invalid or spoilt ballots. Indeed Kenyans had made up their mind.
The overall voter turnout was an impressive 70.4 per cent. Owing to the fact that there were no candidates on the ballot this was a commendable feat.
In the 2013 polls, the first under the 2010 Constitution, IEBC data indicates there were 14, 352, 533 registered voters. There was a voter registration difference of 1,735,906, translating to 13.8 per cent increase from 2010.
Ballots cast were 12, 330,028, representing 85.91 per cent turnout. Valid votes cast for the presidential election were 12,221,053, with 108, 975 spoilt ballots.
In the 2017 general election, there were 19,611,423 registered voters, meaning 5,258,890 more, thus a massive 36.6 per cent increase.
Some 15,114,622 voters cast their ballot, out of which 81,685 were rejected ( 0.53 per cent) a drop from 0.88 per cent in 2013.
The turnout in the 2017 presidential election was 78 per cent. This means some 4,496,801Kenyans did not vote for in the presidential election.
Comparing the voter turnout from the 2010 referendum 2010 to the last two presidential election, the outcome was 74 per cent, 86 per cent and 78 per cent respectively.
Essentially, 2013 being a transition election, the voter turnout was higher than 2017. The 2017 presidential election recorded 81,685 rejected votes compared to 2013, which had 108,975 representing a 25 per cent reduction.
Perhaps this could be explained by the fact that voters had already made up their mind by the time they voted.
In supposition, there is no doubt there was an increase in voter turnout from 70.4 per cent in 2010 referendum to 85.9 per cent in 2013 without an incumbent on the ticket.
This turnout remarkably, however, dropped to 78 per cent in 2017 with an incumbent on the ticket. There is need to interrogate the underlying reasons further alongside other elective positions.
The IEBC has registered approximately 22.5 million voters for the 2022 polls although the final voter registration shall be confirmed after voter audit is complete and subsequent publishing in the Kenya gazette.
In 2021, Transparency International-Kenya conducted a survey tilted “My leader My choice” and the findings provided an intriguing observation.
The respondents were queried on whether they would accept cash or a non-cash items as a bribe to vote for a politician. The startling revelation was that 59 per cent of respondents indicated they would, irrespective of whether the bribe would influence one’s voting decision or not.
The study findings give credence to a popular observation that citizens use elections as an opportunity to normalise corruption.
So, should voter registration and voting be made mandatory in a growing democracy like ours? Yes.
The following reasons amplify the point.
First, this would deter voter mobilisation through bribery, which is rampant with politicians hiring people to register and vote from areas other than where they live.
Second, it will ensure a high consistent voter turnout in tandem with global standards — between 75 per cent -85 per cent.
Third, elected leaders shall be assessed by voters based on their ideals not how deep their pockets are.
Four, the electoral process shall be accessible to all adult citizens who are eligible to participate.
Fifth, the electoral process shall gain legitimacy with all stakeholders accepting the outcome irrespective of whoever is declared the winner.
From the forgoing this is an opportune moment to legislate mandatory voting, where all eligible citizens register and vote in elections with penalties being imposed on those who fail to do so without a valid reason.
This should be viewed in the context of citizen’s civic duty and responsibility towards good astute leadership and good governance
Dr Njau Gitu is an educator who also practices as a governance, policy and strategy adviser.
@GNjauGitu
