Billed as the third force in next year's general election, One Kenya Alliance's ability to hold or otherwise will be a key determiner in the outcome of the presidential poll.
A collapse of the alliance that brings together Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Moses Wetang'ula (Ford Kenya) and Gideon Moi (Kanu) will certainly change the landscape in the race.
Mudavadi and Kalonzo, who have each made a stab at the presidency before, insist they are going for the top job and nothing less.
Moi's Kanu party, on the other hand, insists it will not pull out of its coalition pact with Jubilee to join OKA, complicating matters for the other principals.
Ford Kenya is scheduled to have the National Delegates Conference on November 4, where Wetang'ula is likely to be endorsed for the top seat.
Though the four principals have re-affirmed their “irreversible commitment” to the alliance, picking a flagbearer will be a litmus test.
Further, delays to name the joint presidential candidate means OKA principals will have to play catch-up with Deputy President William Ruto and ODM chief Raila Odinga, who are already on the campaign trail.
Political analyst Joseph Mutua believes there would be three scenarios in the race in the event OKA collapses.
Mutua says the disintegration of the alliance would mean the principals go it alone.
“If all of them contest, none will stand a chance of winning the presidency. In fact, they will all perform very poorly,” Mutua says.
Mutua added that the second scenario would be one that Raila turns to be the biggest casualty and Ruto the beneficiary.
“If you listen to many Kenyans, Raila will have very high chances of winning the presidency if OKA rallies behind him. So, if there will be no OKA, it means the chances will diminish,” he says.
“Raila will lose the Kamba vote, if we assume Kalonzo will have consolidated his base. He will also lose a good chunk of the Luhya support”.
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Mutua adds that Ruto will likely benefit because he has been making inroads in the strongholds of OKA leaders.
“A good number of the Kamba will vote for Ruto because they will know their man does not stand a chance going it alone. They would rather give it to Ruto than their son,” he adds.
Mutua says the last scenario would be one in which no one wins the presidential race, forcing a run-off.
He says none of the candidates will be able to get more than half of all the votes cast and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties, forcing a run-off.
“In the run-off, Raila and Ruto will fight for the support of the OKA principals,” he says.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo opines that the impact of the collapse of OKA will definitely have a "profound political impact" on Ruto and Raila.
“But, perhaps what we should interrogate keenly on the current status of OKA is whether the coalition will collapse or just go through political metamorphosis. In either way, it will either have a positive or negative impact on both Raila and Ruto,” Orogo says.
He adds that the existence and formation of OKA has been a thorn in the flesh for Ruto.
“It is believed that OKA was President Uhuru Kenyatta's political holding ground for the four principals not to let lose and join the hustlers camp. Additionally, the existence of OKA denied William Ruto free access and political clout in voting blocs that were perceived to be warming up to him namely Ukambani and Western,” he says.
He adds that if OKA collapses, the DP will have a free hand, access and gain political mileage in the principal's backyards.
“For William [Ruto], the death of OKA will be a huge jubilation for him,” Orogo opines.
He adds that the situation is to wait and see for Raila but the existence of OKA is and still remains a good idea.
“Raila had previously worked with Kalanzo, Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula . The three principals remain good coalition partners and it was about when they will join him. With a collapse, Raila has to quickly whisker the principals on his side,” he says.
Orogo adds that in the absence of a quick alliance deal, the OKA principals might be bait for other presidential candidates and coalitions.
“On the other hand, some OKA principals like Musalia Mudavadi, being closer to President Uhuru Kenyatta, might not gravitate towards William Ruto. I foresee the former Sabatia MP choosing either to run on his own or joining Raila Odinga's camp,” he adds.
Orogo, however, thinks Raila, just like the DP, may benefit big from the collapse of OKA.
Mudavadi has, however, trashed talk that the alliance will collapse, maintaining it will hold to the very last day.
“One of us will be the next president of this country. This will depend on our unity and the support of Kenyans. We have already demonstrated unity among ourselves. Now it is the support of Kenyans that we are counting on,” he said in an interview with the Star.
Kalonzo has also maintained that OKA will field its candidate in 2022.
The alliance is set to embark on a rigorous meet-the-people campaign to popularise the outfit across the country after a moment of lull.
It will hold a series of rallies starting with Western and Central Kenya this weekend.
The Western Kenya tour comes barely a week after Deputy President William Ruto and ODM chief Raila Odinga pitched tent in the vote-rich region.
The OKA team will be in Kiambu county on Saturday where the principals will tour Thika town and Githurai and then move to Kajiado next weekend.
