Barring the extraordinary and unprecedented, the 2022 presidential election will be a two horse-race between ODM leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto.
Everyone else who puts forward their name for presidential race will do so for reasons that have nothing to do with winning —and they know it.
Such reasons include positioning themselves to haggle for post-election coalition positions now that we do not and will not have BBI to accommodate some of them.
That being settled, question is who will either candidate in the horse-race pick as his running mate and potentially our next deputy president?
Each candidate has unique challenges as to who to pick but between the two, Raila has an easier and smoother path to get there. Ruto, on the other hand, has a big, big problem because he can only choose someone from Mt Kenya — unless he wants to commit political suicide.
Raila, for his part, has options and does not necessarily have to pick from Mt Kenya region. He can pick from Coast, Northeastern, or even the Rift Valley.
Other regions are possible but that will be committing political suicide himself and we can’t have both doing that, lest the system will step in and install the next president as they always have
Given this calculus and dynamics, the money is on Raila picking someone from Mt Kenya region, and a woman to boot.
This is because doing so will blunt Ruto in his efforts to lock a good junk of votes from the region, while the fact it is a woman, Raila can make sure that vote is locked because of his overall popularity, and specifically among women.
Ruto can try and match Raila with a woman pick from Mt Kenya but if he does so, he will see what men are made of from that region.
Which brings us to the question, who is the woman Raila will pick?
The short answer is Martha Karua and for many reasons. Karua is a very smart woman capable of being president and two, she can bring votes unlike any other woman.
Some could argue Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu has that capacity but she does not have the vote basket potential near what the Iron Lady does. Others may mention Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, who was extremely attractive to Raila when BBI was on the roll but when it derailed, so did her prospects.
There is also the simple fact that Waiguru has powerful political enemies that Raila would rather have on his side than tormenting them with her.
That is not to say these are the only women with potential to deputize a president, or to be president altogether.
There are many others such as former Taita Taveta Woman Rep Joyce Lay, who has been very active, recently saying things politicians don’t want to hear befitting a presidential candidate. However, she has two strikes against her that will make that pick an impossibility: one is too obvious to write anything about it.
The other is too honest and blunt, which are great qualities to have but a death knell for any politician, let alone one at the top of the echelon such as deputy president and of course president. No one else fits the bill.
Yes, Martha Karua has a history others may object to but those are people who do not get politics.
I first met Karua when the legendary civil rights attorney John Burris of California asked me to come to Nairobi and help resolve certain matters concerning the 1998 bomb blast victim cases.
Karua was the lead lawyer I dealt with and knew from then on she is the Iron Lady she would later be Christened.
A good one to be our next DP and PORK in that order.
Samuel Omwenga is a legal analyst and political commentator
