Kawaya: Ol Kalou by-election not a predictor of 2027 poll

UDA National Organising Secretary Vincent Musyoka Kawaya has dismissed attempts by the opposition to use the outcome of the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election as a basis for predicting the results of the 2027 presidential election

Kawaya, who is largly considered as President William Ruto’s pointman in Ukambani insisted that one by-election cannot determine the country's political direction.

Speaking at Mung'ala in Machakos Town Constituency, Kawaya termed the opposition's celebrations following the by-election victory as premature, arguing that the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) remains the country's best-performing political party in recent by-elections.

He said UDA has won six of the last ten parliamentary and senatorial by-elections, adding that it was misleading to portray a single victory as a reflection of the national political landscape.

"There is a saying that a chicken lays one egg and makes enough noise for the entire village to hear, while a cow produces milk that feeds the whole village without making any noise. That is how I view the excitement surrounding a single by-election victory," Kawaya said.

The UDA official maintained that President William Ruto remains on course for re-election in 2027, insisting the outcome of the General Election will be determined by the government's development record and service delivery rather than isolated by-election results.

Kawaya, who is also the MP for Mwala, challenged the opposition to prepare for what he described as a competitive contest in 2027, expressing confidence that UDA would secure another electoral victory.

The Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election delivered a decisive victory for the opposition-aligned Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), with its candidate, Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru, winning the seat by a landslide.

The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) declared Waweru the duly elected Member of Parliament after he garnered 35,440 votes.

United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Samuel Muchina Nyagah finished a distant second with 5,450 votes, while Jubilee Party candidate Wilson Kigwa came third with 198 votes.

The by-election attracted nationwide attention, with senior political leaders from both camps pitching camp in Nyandarua County in the days leading to the vote. The contest was widely viewed as a key test of political influence in the Mt Kenya region ahead of the 2027 General Election. Waweru's emphatic victory has since emboldened the opposition, while UDA leaders have maintained that the outcome of a single parliamentary by-election should not be interpreted as a predictor of the next presidential election.