DCP breaks UDA by-election dominance with Ol Kalou win

The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) on Thursday handed the opposition its first major parliamentary by-election victory against President William Ruto's UDA, breaking the ruling party's recent dominance in mini-polls.

In a contest widely seen as a political test between the Kenya Kwanza administration and the opposition ahead of the 2027 General Election, Sammy Douglas Waweru defeated UDA's Samuel Muchina by almost seven times the number of votes in one of the country's most fiercely contested by-elections.

The result marks a significant shift in recent by-election trends, with UDA having enjoyed a string of victories since the 2022 General Election.

In recent parliamentary and senatorial by-elections, the opposition had largely struggled to convert political rhetoric into electoral victories.

Among the seats that slipped from the opposition's grasp were Malava, where UDA's David Ndakwa clinched the seat; Banissa, won by UDA's Ahmed Maalim Hassan; Mbeere North, where UDA's Leo Wamuthende emerged victorious; Isiolo South, won by UDA's Mohamed Tubi; Emurua Dikirr, where UDA's David Keter triumphed; and the Baringo Senate seat, which was won by UDA's Vincent Chemitei.

Meanwhile, ODM successfully defended Magarini through Harrison Kombe, Kasipul through Boyd Were and Ugunja through Moses Omondi, all of which had been targeted by UDA and parties allied to the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Thursday's Ol Kalou victory marked the first time in the current electoral cycle that the opposition had wrested a parliamentary seat from the ruling coalition.

The victory is expected to provide fresh momentum to DCP, the party associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, which has been seeking to establish itself as a formidable opposition force ahead of the next General Election.

The Ol Kalou contest attracted national attention, with both the government and the opposition deploying senior political figures to campaign for their respective candidates.

The campaign period was also marked by accusations of voter bribery, violence and intimidation, prompting heightened security deployment by the National Police Service.

More than 1,000 police officers, including personnel from the General Service Unit (GSU), Anti-Stock Theft Unit (ASTU) and Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI), were deployed to secure the constituency during the poll.

IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon and Inspector-General Douglas Kanja repeatedly appealed to political actors to conduct peaceful campaigns and respect the Electoral Code of Conduct.

The commission also summoned several politicians accused of violating election rules during the campaign period.

Political analysts say the Ol Kalou outcome could reshape the political narrative ahead of the 2027 General Election by demonstrating that the opposition can mount competitive campaigns against the ruling party in strategically important constituencies.

Peter Kagwanja described the DCP victory in Ol Kalou as "inevitable", likening the contest between UDA and DCP to "eggs against stones".

"Both had a game plan pegged to 2027," Kagwanja said.

He said Ruto's objective was to secure about 20 per cent of the vote as a measure of his support in the Mt Kenya region, while Gachagua's camp was targeting an overwhelming victory.

"UDA versus DCP was a battle of eggs against stones. If the stones fall on the eggs, the eggs will break. The victory was inevitable, but the question was the margin," he explained.

For UDA, the defeat interrupts what had been a largely successful run in by-elections since assuming power in 2022.

The party has consistently portrayed by-election victories as evidence that it retains grassroots support despite mounting criticism over the cost of living, taxation and governance.

For DCP, the victory provides an early electoral boost following its formation and could strengthen its efforts to consolidate support, particularly in the Mt Kenya region, where it has sought to challenge UDA's dominance.

Although by-elections are often influenced by local political dynamics and turnout patterns, Thursday's result is likely to be closely analysed by both sides as they fine-tune their strategies for 2027.

With the opposition finally breaking UDA's winning streak, attention is now expected to shift to whether the Ol Kalou outcome signals a broader political realignment or remains an isolated upset in the country's evolving electoral landscape.