Sunny, hot weather illustration/FILE
Most parts of the country are expected to experience generally dry weather conditions during the week of June 16 to June 22, 2026, the Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast.
However, the agency noted that some regions are likely to receive rainfall, particularly parts of the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Coast region, and North-eastern Kenya.
In its weekly outlook, the Met Department said intermittent cool and cloudy conditions are also expected in several areas, including the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern Lowlands, the Rift Valley, and parts of northeastern Kenya.
“Most parts of the country are expected to be generally dry. However, some parts of the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Coast and North-eastern Kenya may receive rainfall,” the forecast stated.
The weatherman further warned of significant temperature variations across different regions during the period.
Night-time (minimum) temperatures are expected to drop below 10°C in some areas within the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Central Rift Valley, and around the Mt. Kilimanjaro region, indicating cold conditions in high-altitude zones.
At the same time, daytime (maximum) temperatures are projected to rise above 30°C in parts of the Coast, the Southeastern Lowlands, North-eastern and North-western Kenya, pointing to hot and dry conditions in those regions.
The department advised residents in different parts of the
country to prepare for the varying weather conditions, including cold nights in
highland areas and hot daytime temperatures in low-lying and arid regions.
On June 11, the next three months will be largely dry before El Niño rains arrive toward the end of the year, the weatherman predicted.
Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki said although there is an 80 to 82 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will be in place during June, July and August, these three months will be dry in most parts of Kenya, while western Kenya will have depressed rainfall.
He said the enhanced rainfall, common during El Niño, would occur during the October, November and December seasons.
He explained that El Niño does not influence the weather in Kenya in isolation. “KMD is also closely monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal, which modulates the effect of El Niño in Kenya,” he said.
The IOD measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western (Kenyan side) and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
When the western side of the Indian Ocean is warmer than the eastern side, a positive IOD occurs - and this is historically linked to heavy rains in Kenya during the October-November-December season.
A negative IOD, on the other hand, tends to suppress rains in Kenya.
The IOD is currently neutral, and most models indicate it is likely to remain neutral in June 2026, with a positive IOD event possible later in the year.
“The combined effects of El Niño and a positive IOD significantly influence rainfall patterns over Kenya, potentially leading to enhanced rainfall during the October November-December season. Updates on El Nino and IOD conditions will continue to be provided at monthly timescales or when required,” Muriuki said.
