You know how
in a big family, when the main house is too full, people move to the smaller
house in the compound? Kenyan politics is like that right now.
The two
biggest parties, UDA and ODM, are planning to work together for the 2027
general election.
Because they
are friends, they will try to share seats and avoid fighting each other.
To avoid voter
confusion, they are discussing zoning plans, a process likely to push many
politicians out in the cold.
But this means
that inside each big party, there will be many politicians who want the same
seat.
Only one
person can get the party ticket. So, what happens to the others who are
rejected?
They cannot
just go home. They are still popular in their villages and counties.
So, they look
for a 'smaller house' – a smaller political party that is still friendly to
their big party alliance.
United
Progressive Alliance, Movement for Democracy and Growth, Pamoja Africa Alliance,
United Democratic Movement, Jubilee and DAP-K of the political sphere are
stepping in to fill the vacuum.
This is the
new game as the country hurtles towards the general election as politicians up
their preparations.
In ODM's
stronghold of Nyanza, many big names are fighting for governor seats.
In Migori,
Uriri MP Mark Nyamita wants to be governor, but the ticket will likely go to
the current governor, Ochilo Ayacko.
Where does
Nyamita go? He may go to a party called MDG, led by MP David Ochieng'.
“The interest
in our party has grown tremendously. Many politicians have approached us so
that we work together,” Ochieng’ told the Star recently, promising more details
later.
For the MDG
leader, said to be eyeing a bigger seat in the county, zoning should be
discouraged by all means, emphasising that “the more the merrier.”
“You cannot
get the most capable leaders when competition is removed. We support [President William] Ruto, but we will oppose
any zoning attempts along perceived party or regional strongholds,” he said.
In Kisumu,
people like Prof Tom Ojienda want to be governor, a seat also eyed by key ODM
bigwigs like Aduma Owuor (Nyakach MP), Rozaah Buyu (Kisumu West MP) and former Chief Administrative Secretary Ken Obura.
Only one
person will be handed the ODM ticket.
In Siaya,
former MP Nicholas Gumbo wants to be governor, albeit through UDM.
He garnered
more than 147,500 votes in the 2022 election through the party.
This week, an
interim registration certificate was issued by Office of Registrar of Political Parties to an outfit trading as
People’s Renaissance Movement.
The party,
believed to be associated with big figures seeking quit a popular outfit, is largely youth-led.
Its interim secretary general Sarabai Emmanuel said, “[It is a] party that believes in inclusivity and economic
renaissance.”
“The existing
political parties don’t share the ideologies we have as the founding members.”
Homa Bay Deputy Governor Oyugi
Magwanga, in the wake of his fallout with Governor Gladys Wanga, has to look
for another party. He ran as an
independent in the 2017 election, giving ODM a run for its money.
At the Coast,
a similar story plays out. Former Gender Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa wants to be governor and challenge the incumbent, Gideon Mung'aro.
But because
UDA and ODM are friends, they may decide that Mung'aro should be the only
candidate.
Out of fear of
being locked out of UDA, Jumwa has already contemplated where to go.
The ex-CS has
opted for PAA, the party of former Governor Amason Kingi.
It is a
Coast-based party that is still in the same Kenya Kwanza alliance with UDA. It
is her ‘smaller house’.
In Mandera and
the North, Senator Ali Roba has his own party, UDM. It is in the Kenya Kwanza
government with UDA.
If a
politician from that region feels he will lose in UDA nominations, he can
easily move to UDM.
It is a safe
local vehicle that is still aligned with the government. It is a house for the
community within the big alliance.
In Kisii, a
new party called UPA is becoming strong. It did well in recent small elections.
Some ODM MPs,
like Kitutu Chache South’s Anthony Kibagendi, are now praising UPA.
If they fear
they will lose the ODM ticket, they will run with UPA.
The Kisii
Governor, Simba Arati, says Kisii will back ODM to a great extent.
“Gusii land
has traditionally, in terms of parties, even when Jubilee was a ruling party,
ODM was still beating them,” Arati said.
He argued that
Kisiis remained in ODM despite Fred Matiang’i’s influence in the Uhuru Kenyatta
administration, almost more of a deputy president.
“There would
be a feeling that one of our own is running, but for sure, I can tell you that
Kisii remains largely ODM.”
But many
politicians are not so sure. They want a backup plan, and UPA is that plan.
UPA national
chairman Nyambega Gisesa said, “There is a lot of interest, not only in Gusii,
after our performance in the recent by-elections.”
“It was the
only party that fielded candidates in all regions. We had a candidate in Banisa
and will present nominees for the Mbeere North ward by-elections slated for
February,” he told the Star.
He said that the “party is not only a fallback plan for
those who may miss out in the UDA-ODM horse trading but is being approached by
many politicians.”
In Western, Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K is rising because of leaders like Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
In places like
Bungoma, big names like Tim Wanyonyi from ODM and Didmus Barasa of UDA all want
to be governor.
If they cannot
agree on who gets the ticket in their big parties, they might run using an
older party like Ford Kenya or DAP-K.
Even DAP-K, as
it is waiting to welcome anyone who wants a new, popular vehicle, has been
facing competition.
Natembeya in
August denied forming a breakaway political outfit out of the DAP-K shadow.
Even so, the
party is threatening to upend the established order of Ford Kenya, ODM and UDA
in the region.
A recent poll
by research firm Infotrak showed how it is shaking up the old politics of the
region.
In Mt Kenya
region, problems are brewing with former DP Rigathi Gachagua stirring the
waters with his new outfit, DCP.
Those who fall
out with him or fail to find a ticket in the outfit cannot just disappear. They
need a party.
Their likely
new home? The old Jubilee Party, which can offer them a way to stay in politics
and face off with UDA.
“It is a game
of musical chairs,” political analyst and commentator Herman Manyora said. “The music
is the nomination process in the big parties.”
INSTANT
ANALYSIS
For the
voters, it means on election day, they will see many different party names on
the ballot, MDG, PAA, UPA, DAP-K, but the politicians are all still working
with either Ruto or Gachagua or Kalonzo behind the scenes. This strategy
allows them (the politicians) to run without directly opposing the alliance.
