PRESIDENT William Ruto could secure a slight advantage
over the united opposition in the high-stakes 2027 race if he successfully inherits
the late Raila Odinga’s long-standing political strongholds.
An analysis by the Star shows that Ruto currently
commands approximately 24 counties with a combined 9.22 million registered
voters, based on the 2022 voter roll.
The united opposition controls about 15 densely
populated counties with 8.43 million voters.
Meanwhile, eight counties—holding 4.44 million
voters—are shaping up to be the critical battlegrounds likely to decide the
election.
However, with nearly two years to go, analysts warn that
these political equations could shift rapidly.
The IEBC is targeting 6.8 million additional
voters through ongoing mass registration, while turnout patterns could also
fundamentally alter the presidential race.
Political observer Charles Munyui suggests that
traditional voting blocs may not hold in 2027 due to the rise of a more
assertive and politically conscious youth demographic.
“Balkanisation
of the country may not work because of the Gen Z factor. Eight million people
did not vote in the last election, this could be their time,” he said.
Beyond numerical strength, the constitution requires a
presidential candidate to secure at least 25 per cent of the vote in 24
counties and an overall 50 per cent plus one.
Ruto is expected to dominate the Rift Valley as he did
in 2022.
The North and South Rift counties—West Pokot
(220,026), Uasin Gishu (506,138), Elgeyo Marakwet (231,884), Baringo (282,053),
Kericho (428,067), Bomet (376,985), and Nandi (406,288)—hold 2.4 million voters
collectively.
The President is also seeking to penetrate Raila
Odinga’s traditional bases at the Coast and in Western Kenya.
At the Coast, where Raila has historically dominated,
Ruto is banking on senior government appointments of former governors Hassan
Joho, Salim Mvurya, and Amason Kingi to tilt the region.
The four coastal counties — Mombasa (641,913), Kwale
(328,253), Kilifi (588,602) and Tana River (191,096) — form a crucial bloc.
However, Lamu and Taita Taveta have a substantial number
of Kikuyu and Kamba voters respectively, effectively making them possible
battlegrounds.
In Western, Ruto aims to make inroads in Kakamega
(844,555), Vihiga (310,043), and Busia (416,756).
However, Trans Nzoia and Bungoma are likely to prove
difficult because of the growing influence of Governor George Natembeya.
DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa, a key member of the
opposition, also hails from the same region.
Ruto is also likely to retain support in the
Northeastern counties of Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa with 623,261 voters.
With Raila’s team behind him, he could also secure the
Maa counties of Narok (398,784) and Samburu (100,014), and frontier regions
like Turkana (238,528).
The opposition is leaning heavily on Gusii, Ukambani, and Mt Kenya counties,
which together command 8.43 million registered voters.
Gusii, with 960,293 voters across Kisii (637,010) and
Nyamira (323,283), is currently under the strong influence of former Interior
CS Fred Matiang’i.
Ukambani, with 1.69 million voters across Makueni,
Kitui, and Machakos counties, remains firmly in the grip of Kalonzo Musyoka.
Mt Kenya, boasting 5.77 million voters, is largely
aligned with Rigathi Gachagua, who has openly vowed to make Ruto a one-term
president.
However, Ruto is still fighting to retain his support
and continues to enjoy backing from Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and a majority
of MPs from the region.
The fiercest fight is expected in eight swing counties: Nairobi (2.41 million
voters), Kajiado (463,273), Isiolo (89,504), Marsabit (166,912), Taita Taveta
(181,827), Lamu (81,453), Trans Nzoia (398,981), and Bungoma (646,598).
Nairobi remains the country’s most cosmopolitan county
and has traditionally leaned toward Raila.
Kajiado also mirrors this diversity, and its loyalties
remain hotly contested.
However Isiolo Governor Abdi Guyo contested the classification
of his county as a battleground.
“Isiolo is a
Ruto zone. He has worked for our people, and whoever thinks he can take our
people to the opposition is dreaming.”
Kajiado Senator Seki Ole Kanar, a close ally of
Gachagua, also rejects the notion that Ruto has significant influence in the
county.
Citing demographic factors — 130,000 Mt Kenya voters
and 60,000 Kamba voters — Seki argues: “So, with Mt Kenya out of Ruto and Kamba
also in the opposition, the possibility of Ruto controlling Kajiado is
impossible. He has no significance at all.” Seki, who is eyeing the Kajiado
governorship under Gachagua’s DCP party told the Star.
“When you talk about the Maa
community, there are two clans: the black and the red. I lead the black, and
Katoo Ole Metito (State House comptroller) leads the red. We are almost at
50-50,” he said.
“So, with Mt Kenya out of Ruto and Kamba also in the opposition,
the possibility of Ruto controlling Kajiado is impossible,” Seki said.
Seki is a close ally of Gachagua and stuck with him even voting
to reject his impeachment as Deputy President last year.
In Western, the DAP-Kenya wave led by deputy party leader Natembeya threatens Ruto’s grip in Trans Nzoia and Bungoma.
Still, with
powerful allies such as Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary
Musalia Mudavadi, Ruto remains competitive.
The President has intensified campaigns in regions traditionally aligned with
the opposition, including Ukambani, where he pledged last week to overturn
Kalonzo’s dominance.
“This time, I have said, by all means, Ukambani will
not be in opposition again. I will go with you to the government,” Ruto said.
Ruto has also deepened his push into Mt Kenya —
Gachagua’s base — through DP Kithure Kindiki, who has been leading empowerment
drives for youth and women, distributing equipment and mobilising support.
At the same time, Ruto has hosted large delegations at
State House and deployed senior officials to campaign for him ahead of 2027.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
As the 2027 elections draw closer, the battle lines are
being redrawn—not just along traditional ethnic and regional divides, but
through new political alliances, strategic government appointments, and the
relentless quest for swing votes that could ultimately decide Kenya’s next
leader. Already, the factions have activated their political machinery in
readiness for the State House battle.
