The political future of several top leaders hangs in the
balance following the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, long
regarded as a political enigma and kingmaker.
The so-called “Raila orphans”—a mix of governors and MPs—are leaders who appeared to rely heavily on his influence for their election
and survival in politics.
For decades, Raila’s charisma and clout not only helped ODM
candidates win but also shaped the trajectories of many political careers.
“I have seen people on social media saying that I am a
political orphan. But coming here, I have seen a lot of political orphans—many people are crying,” National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohamed said
during Raila’s burial, reflecting the anxiety among the former PM's allies. Raila, who died in India on October 15, was buried in Bondo on October 19.
Raila’s dominance was evident in ODM’s near-total control of
his political strongholds. Now, without him, many governors face tough
re-election battles.
Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo said whether ODM-elected leaders will
retain their seats without Raila will depend on how attractive the party
remains after his demise.
“Is the new party leadership going to gather all and scatter
none the way Raila did? Will the party still be attractive without him? Will the
people come out to vote?”
“These are tough questions, and as a party, we
must handle the post-Raila era very carefully,” he said.
In Nyanza, Siaya Governor James Orengo, Migori’s Ochilo
Ayacko and Homa Bay’s Gladys Wanga face an uncertain future.
In Siaya, Orengo’s re-election battle looks uphill without
Raila’s influence. In 2022, he narrowly defeated former Rarieda MP Nicholas
Gumbo, who ran on a UDM ticket—and analysts predict the 2027 race could be
even tougher.
Ayacko faces a strong challenge from Uriri MP Mark Nyamita,
who has declared interest in the governorship.
The Migori governor, a close ally of Raila, is seen as
having benefited greatly from the ODM leader’s popularity in 2022.
In Homa Bay, Governor Wanga—one of Raila’s closest allies—may also struggle.
Raila personally intervened before the 2022 elections to
have Wanga run for governor ahead of Oyugi Magwanga, now her deputy.
Magwanga is reportedly preparing to challenge her in 2027.
Former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, who lost to Wanga in
2022, is also said to be eyeing a comeback.
With significant financial resources and political networks,
he could pose a serious challenge to Wanga in a post-Raila political
environment.
In Western Kenya, Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa and his Busia counterpart Paul Otuoma may also face stiff opposition.
Both are perceived to have anchored their political strength
on Raila’s support.
Barasa, who was backed by former governor and current
Cooperatives CS Wycliffe Oparanya in 2022, has since fallen out with him—and
could face challenges from Senator Boni Khalwale and former Senator Cleophas
Malala.
In Busia, Otuoma’s dominance has long rested on ODM’s
strength in the county, which may wane without Raila’s presence.
In Nairobi, Governor Johnson Sakaja—who had grown close to
Raila—also faces a shifting political landscape.
Raila had openly defended and appeared to endorse Sakaja
despite him being elected on a UDA ticket.
“As I head off to Addis, I want Nairobi to remain united and
strong. My son here will take charge,” Raila said, pointing at Sakaja during a
prayer meeting at the Bomas of Kenya, before leaving for Ethiopia to pursue the
African Union Commission chairmanship.
Sakaja attended the event, which was organised by women
affiliated with ODM.
During the event, Sakaja said he would organise a meeting
with ODM women leaders in Nairobi to show his political direction ahead of
2027.
“Dalili ya
mvua ni mawingu na mwenye macho haambiwi tazama (The sign of rain is clouds and one who has eyes
is not told to look),’’ Sakaja quoted the Swahili
saying after Homa Bay's Wanga and Makadara MP George Aladwa
prodded him to join ODM.
“While you are away, Baba, we want our great Governor Sakaja
to take charge and join ODM so that we can work together,’’ Aladwa said.
Recently, Raila intervened to save Sakaja from
impeachment by Nairobi MCAs.
Sakaja faces fierce competition from Embakasi East MP Babu
Owino and former PS Irungu Nyakera, who have declared interest in the governor's seat.
Observers say Raila’s political influence and popularity in
the capital could have swayed the voters in favour of the city boss.
At the Coast, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir and
Kilifi’s Gideon Mung’aro may also feel the vacuum left by Raila.
Nassir, ODM’s deputy party leader, rode on Raila’s wave in
2022. However, he now faces growing opposition from Nyali MP Mohamed Ali and
Mombasa assembly speaker Aharub “Aroro” Khatri—a close ally of Mining CS
Hassan Joho.
Political analyst Frankline Nzao said Joho remains a
powerful force in coastal politics because of his financial muscle and appeal
to the youth.
“The only person who could tame Joho was Raila. Raila used
to persuade Joho not to act in certain ways, even when he openly showed dislike
for Nassir. Now that Raila is gone, this is what worries Nassir,” he told the
Star.
Nzao said Nassir’s tears at Raila’s death were not just
about losing a party leader, but also a personal protector.
“Raila created an extra deputy party leader position just to
elevate Nassir politically. He was shielding him from political storms,” he said.
Nassir is currently battling controversy over a Sh17 billion
waste management deal between the county and Ghana’s Jospong Group of
Companies.
MCAs allied to speaker Khatri—Nassir’s rival—are pushing
for its cancellation, and an impeachment motion against environment executive
Kibibi Abdalla, one of Nassir’s allies, is reportedly in the works.
Political activist Mwakuja Mrombo said Khatri and Joho now
have more leeway to fight Nassir politically since “his shield is gone”.
“Nassir used to rely on Raila’s closeness with his father, Shariff Nassir [deceased], to gain political protection. Now, the stool he stood
on has been withdrawn—he must fight on his own,” Mrombo said.
In Kilifi, Governor Mung’aro—who also benefited from Raila
and ODM’s dominance—may find it difficult to replicate the same success in
2027.
Besides governors, several MPs representing constituencies
where Raila enjoyed massive support also face re-election hurdles.
In Nairobi, ODM has long dominated constituencies such as
Ruaraka, Mathare, Westlands, Lang’ata, Kibra, Dagoretti North and Makadara.
MPs TJ Kajwang’ (Ruaraka), Antony Oluoch (Mathare), Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands),
Felix Odiwuor (Lang’ata), Peter Orero (Kibra), Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti
North) and Aladwa (Makadara) may now struggle to retain their seats.
A similar situation looms in Nyanza, where MPs Otiende
Amollo (Rarieda), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Sam Atandi (Alego Usonga), Roza Buyu
(Kisumu Town West), Peter Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) and Junet Mohamed (Suna East)
face uncertain political futures.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
The sudden death of ODM leader Raila Odinga, long regarded
as the enigma of Kenyan politics, has left many political careers hanging in
the balance. Raila, who was laid to rest on October 19, had for decades been the
undisputed supremo of the Orange Democratic Movement. His immense influence and
charisma not only propelled party candidates to victory but also anchored the
political fortunes of many of his allies. Across the country, particularly in
ODM strongholds, politicians rode on Raila’s popularity to secure elective
seats.
