How isolating Matiang’i could spell doom for Kalonzo, Gachagua

THE fragile unity of Kenya’s opposition is once again under strain, raising fears that internal fault lines could hand President William Ruto an easy ride to a second term in 2027.

The central question now is: could the isolation of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i spell doom for the Kalonzo Musyoka–Rigathi Gachagua axis that has been projected as the face of the coalition?

At the heart of the looming implosion is the simmering tension between DCP party leader Rigathi Gachagua and Matiang’i, who recently confirmed for the first time that he would contest the presidency on a Jubilee Party ticket.

What began as a hushed rivalry over influence in the opposition’s inner sanctums has now spilled into the open, exposing the cracks in the once-promising alliance.

For weeks, signs of Matiang’i’s marginalisation have been visible.

The former powerful Cabinet Secretary, once touted as a technocrat who could inject fresh energy into the coalition, has been systematically frozen out of major opposition activities.

On Friday, while the opposition luminaries rallied together in Kajiado—Gachagua, Kalonzo and Eugene Wamalwa—Matiang’i was nowhere in sight.

Instead, he quietly made an appearance in Nakuru.

 His absence from the high-profile Kajiado rally was conspicuous, especially since even his image was missing from official posters and social media banners.

 Many interpreted this as a deliberate move to edge him out.

The sidelining reached a new level last month when Gachagua, speaking during a church service in Kajiado, unveiled a list of five opposition leaders he claimed could not betray the movement.

The names he cited—Kalonzo, Karua, Wamalwa, George Natembeya, and himself—pointedly excluded Matiang’i.

“Between myself, Kalonzo, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua and George Natembeya, those five leaders cannot betray the people of Kenya. Among us we will agree on one person to face William Ruto,” Gachagua said, drawing loud applause from the crowd.

DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala has since doubled down, accusing Jubilee—the party carrying Matiang’i’s 2027 bid—of plotting to divide the vote-rich Mount Kenya region.

The biggest risks lie in Gusii and Mount Kenya votes.

The Gusii region, where Matiang’i draws his strength, boasts nearly one million votes.

In the last election, Raila Odinga garnered solid support from the community, especially because the region had no presidential candidate.

If Matiang’i bolts out or runs a parallel campaign, analysts warn, the opposition could hemorrhage votes there.

Embakasi North MP James Gakuya was blunt: “I am not worried at all because Matiang’i will only split votes from the Kisii region. I am totally confident that Mt Kenya votes will not split because Uhuru Kenyatta has picked a different candidate.”

Yet, others are less dismissive.

 Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s lingering influence through Jubilee means that if Matiang’i is sidelined, his supporters could drift away, weakening the bloc’s overall numbers.

According to IEBC’s 2022 register, Kisii and Nyamira counties together command about 960,000 votes, while the ten Mount Kenya counties hold a staggering 3.1 million.

That sheer weight makes Gachagua’s position as “the face of the Mountain” central to the coalition’s arithmetic—but it also makes any divisions catastrophic.

Multimedia University don Prof Gitile Naituli cautions that Jubilee is unlikely to penetrate Mount Kenya deeply, arguing the region has already learned from its experience with President Ruto.

 “What happened in the Mountain is that they trusted somebody who is not one of them. He let them down very badly. It is unlikely they can trust another outsider,” he said.

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi echoed the same sentiment: “I am not seeing Central Kenya get divided. At the right time they will do the right thing. Mt Kenya will follow their leader.”

Matiang’i’s allies, however, insist the sidelining is politically motivated and not reflective of his popularity.

Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni said during a radio interview that the rest of the coalition principals fear Matiang’i’s growing influence.

“United opposition is afraid of Fred Matiang’i and that is why it is propagating the narrative that Jubilee is working with the government,” Kioni said.

Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu was even sharper, dismissing the “project” tag.

“Gachagua, who only joined the opposition recently after being kicked out of government, now believes he is the gatekeeper of who legitimate opposition is and who is not. We will not be intimidated with chest thumping,” he stated.

Observers now warn that the festering rivalry could derail the coalition’s chances of dislodging President Ruto.

Naituli cautions that figures such as Malala are worsening the rift: “There are two people who should be controlled. If they are not, they can actually undermine the unity.”

The fear is that while Mount Kenya may stay intact behind Gachagua, the opposition risks losing Gusii, where Matiang’i remains influential.

If the coalition’s strategy is to combine Mount Kenya, Gusii, and the Ukambani votes under Kalonzo, alongside Nyanza’s traditional support, then even a minor fracture could tip the scales in Ruto’s favour.

In 2022, Raila lost to Ruto by a mere 200,000 votes in a hotly contested poll.

Deputy Governor Mwangangi suggested a path forward: allow each opposition party to market its brand without undermining others.

“All the opposition parties are in agreement that each one markets his or her entity and at the end we will come to the table and agree on the rest,” he said.

If the coalition cannot reconcile its leaders and create space for all players, then its unity message may collapse under the weight of ego battles.

And with Ruto consolidating state machinery and his Rift Valley base and Raila’s support, the opposition can ill afford disunity.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Analysts warn that with voter registration ongoing and political parties already activating grassroots structures, the opposition cannot afford distractions. Any perception of disunity could dampen enthusiasm among supporters, particularly in swing regions where Gachagua and Matiang’i both seek influence. The coming months will be decisive. If coalition leaders fail to rein in the two egos and forge a common front, the Gachagua–Matiang’i clash may well be remembered as the moment the opposition squandered its best shot at power.