24 counties that could make or break Kalonzo, Gachagua in 2027 battle with Ruto

United Opposition leaders Fred Matiang’i, Kalonzo Musyoka and Mukhisa Kituyi at a past event/DENISH OCHIENG

At  least 24 counties are weak links in the opposition’s ‘united front’ for the presidency, posing a major difficulty in toppling President William Ruto in 2027.

The United Opposition, fronted by DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, faces an uphill task in these counties.

Apart from weak grassroots networks, the yet-to-be-formalised alliance lacks dominant regional heavyweights who can secure bloc votes in their areas.

This means the coalition must lean on calculated strategies and grassroots mobilisation to boost its numbers.

The opposition has yet to mount serious campaigns in these regions, although its leaders and supporters repeatedly visit Gachagua’s home turf of Mt Kenya and Kalonzo’s Lower Eastern stronghold.

“There are areas where the opposition will not need to waste their time and money. Places like Luo Nyanza and Kalenjin-dominated counties of the Rift Valley,” political analyst Martin Andati told the Star.

For other regions, he said, opposition leaders must appeal directly to the people and leverage President Ruto’s perceived unpopularity.

Kenya’s electoral law requires a presidential candidate to secure at least 25 per cent of votes in 24 counties and an overall national tally of 50 per cent plus one vote.

An analysis by the Star reveals glaring gaps in the opposition’s reach, particularly at the Coast.

The six counties—Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Tana River — lack an opposition-aligned kingpin to rally voters.

Unlike the opposition, Ruto has won the backing of ODM leader Raila Odinga, who has long dominated regional politics and influential figures from his party have joined the Ruto administration.

Among them is flamboyant Mining CS Hassan Joho, the immediate former Mombasa governor and former ODM deputy leader. A youthful crowd-puller, Joho entrenched ODM’s dominance in Mombasa before crossing over to Ruto’s Cabinet with Raila’s blessing.

“We have decided to remain in government, and we will not leave. In 2027, we are with our President, but in 2032, we will go for that seat,” Joho said on July 2.

In the Rift Valley, Ruto remains unchallenged.

The opposition lacks a principal to galvanise that vote-rich region, where the President secured more than 70 per cent of votes in Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet and Baringo in 2022.

 Raila also dominated Turkana.

In Nyanza, Raila still has a strong grip over Kisumu, Migori, Siaya and Homa Bay.

The opposition has not mounted campaigns there, a dynamic that could favour Ruto if Raila sustains his support for the incumbent and a second term.

In Northeastern, nearly all elected leaders back Ruto, leaving Gachagua and Kalonzo without a foothold.

Health CS Aden Duale, Mandera Senator Ali Roba, Eldas MP Adan Keynan, and Dadaab MP Farah Maalim are among the region’s influential figures supporting the government.

Some analyst say, however, the opposition has a fighting chance in the region.

“Northeastern is a swing region. No one can claim to control it fully. They have not had an outright kingpin for a long time, and they also make their decision [on who to back] late, depending on where they think power would go,” Andati said.

 Western Kenya remains contested. 

The opposition has allies such as Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa.

Yet, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula is in Ruto’s corner and still wields considerable clout. 

In Busia and Vihiga, the alliance lacks a commanding voice.

DCP’s Cleophas Malala has also been overshadowed by Raila and former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya.

Andati said the opposition could ride on Natembeya’s rising star to wrest the region from Raila’s grip.

Currently, the opposition has a stronghold in Mt Kenya, where Gachagua has consolidated support.

This has weakened Ruto’s grip on the region, which he relied on greatly to win in 2022.

Other opposition principals, including Martha Karua (PLP), Justin Muturi (DP) and Peter Munya (PNU), also hail from the region.

Ruto, however, is counting on Deputy President Kithure Kindiki from Tharaka Nithi and loyalists to reclaim that vote bloc.

In Eastern, Kalonzo commands a massive following in Makueni, Kitui, Machakos and parts of Taita Taveta.

Nairobi, the country’s most cosmopolitan county and the richest in votes, is expected to remain a fiercely contested battleground, as will the Maa counties of Narok, Kajiado and Samburu.

Since 2013, coalitions among major ethnic blocs have shaped presidential outcomes.

The Uhuru Kenyatta-Ruto alliance delivered two straight wins by merging Mt Kenya and Rift Valley.

In 2007, the Pentagon coalition nearly toppled Mwai Kibaki, while in 2002, a broad opposition front ended Daniel arap Moi’s 24-year rule.

Yet the opposition’s troubles go beyond weak county bases. It is also grappling with poor finances, internal divisions and alleged state infiltration.

Data from the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties show Ruto’s UDA and Raila’s ODM this year dominate the Sh1.94 billion political parties fund, together controlling more than Sh1.2 billion.

UDA will receive Sh789.7 million—more than 40 per cent of the fund—while ODM takes Sh421.8 million. Jubilee is allocated Sh184.8 million, Wiper Sh98.8 million, and DAP-K Sh43.2 million. Gachagua’s DCP is not eligible for funding, as it does not yet have elected leaders.

Beyond financing, Ruto enjoys the many benefits of incumbency, with access to state machinery to advance his political agenda.

 The United Opposition is also battling a unity test, with its principals sticking to personal bids for the top job. Kalonzo has declared it is “now or never”, Gachagua insists he will be on the ballot ¾ a possible negotiating tactic ¾ while Karua has made similar pronouncements.

“If you fail to unite, then the person who will benefit is the incumbent. That is a reality that they all know,” political observer Charles Munyui warned.

Instant analysis

Forces ganging up to unseat President Ruto face many hurdles that could favour the incumbent in 2027. The President faces a growing list of opponents and waning popularity due to a battered economy and unpopular policies. Difficulty in picking a single opposition candidate could be a huge advantage for Ruto. Multiple opposition candidates would split the vote, which the President would exploit. Reports are emerging of clashing egos, ultimatums, government infiltration and divisions within the opposition, with a little more than two years to the polls.