At the heart of the
jostling are three key figures: Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Interior
CS Fred Matiang’i and impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Each has, in recent days, staked an unyielding claim to be the face of the opposition, setting the stage for what analysts warn could be a bruising showdown.
The
contest intensified soon after Gachagua returned from a six-week tour of the US.
Once touted as a kingmaker, the former DP
dramatically changed tune on arrival, declaring he was no longer content with
playing second fiddle — he wants the top seat.
His declaration rattled the fragile opposition
coalition.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni
openly cautioned that Gachagua’s bid was disruptive, arguing his role should be
to channel his energy into confronting Ruto, not fragmenting the opposition.
“When some people [Gachagua] announce they are
running for President and they know they can’t, it throws the opposition into
confusion and will hand Ruto a second term,” Kioni warned on Radio Generation.
“We need to use the strengths we have in the
opposition. Rigathi is brave and can confront Ruto, that is where his strength
is.”
But Gachagua was having none of it.
Bristling at the suggestion that he should fight
Ruto only to surrender the fruits of his struggle to others, he fired back
sharply.
“Some people have said that my work is to attack and remove Ruto and then hand over the seat to other people. Power isn’t passed over like a cigarette lighter,” Gachagua said.
“You have to demonstrate how much effort you put in to remove Ruto. How many voters have you mobilised? How many political meetings have you held and attended? Show us with evidence. Winning the election is about numbers.”
That “numbers-first” mantra has become Gachagua’s rallying cry, especially as he leans on the restive but populous Mt Kenya region.
Yet his uncompromising terms for negotiations —
essentially demanding the flagbearer slot by virtue of his perceived voter
muscle — have already begun to stir unease among his would-be partners.
Kalonzo, for his part, has also drawn a red line.
Twice a running mate to Raila Odinga, the Wiper leader says 2027 is his last shot at the presidency and he won’t settle for anything less.
“I am going for the presidency. It is now or never. If I don’t go for it now, I will never go for it,” Kalonzo declared on Wednesday.
“If I go for it now and my colleagues give me
the flagship, believe you me I will not disappoint.”
The former Vice President added he would not
accept being reduced to a running mate again.
“It is too late for any games to be played against me as I have sacrificed enough,” he said, signaling the depth of his resolve.
Meanwhile, Matiang’i, though less vocal, has been quietly building his profile as a technocratic alternative, a factor that further complicates the already tense calculations.
Political analysts caution that while the opposition may agree in principle on dislodging Ruto, the process of anointing a single candidate is fraught with danger.
Each aspirant sees themselves as indispensable,
and none appears ready to compromise.
Political analyst Calvin Muga opined that if the
opposition is to stand a chance of winning the election in 2027, they have to
move as a team, which means they have to agree on a formula for a joint
candidate and to move forward.
“As long as there is fragmentation in the opposition, their chances of taking on [President] William Ruto will be impossible,” Muga told the Star.
“They need to ensure they get one person who will be on the ballot. If that doesn’t happen, their chances will be very slim.”
With egos clashing, regional interests colliding and personal ambitions at their peak, the choice of a joint candidate could easily make or break the opposition alliance.
And while Kalonzo says Gachagua has the right to chest-thump, and that the opposition candidate will be a negotiated outcome, they disagree on the criteria.
As aforementioned, while Gachagua has maintained the negotiations will be based purely on numbers. Kalonzo insists considerations such as record of service and integrity — “if you have scandals” — should matter.
Kalonzo has, however, dismissed talks of a
potential split, saying the “United Opposition” is a meeting of minds of
leaders who have determined, through their own political parties and some
individually, to be part of the change the country needs.
Matiang’i has been endorsed by Jubilee as its
presidential candidate, a decision that is expected to be formalised during the
party’s NDC.
Matiang’i, however, previously disassociated
with the Uhuru Kenyatta outfit.
There is, however, bad blood between Gachagua
and Jubilee, with foot soldiers from the respective camps throwing barbs at
each other.
Gachagua, in ring-fencing Mt Kenya for his DCP party, has said Matiang’i should seek another party other than Jubilee.
This has triggered a hostile response from Kioni
and former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu.
Makueni Senator and Kalonzo ally Dan Maanzo
suggests Kalonzo is more likely to win against Ruto than Gachagua.
“In the united opposition, there are two very senior opposition figures: a former DP (Gachagua) and a former Vice President (Kalonzo). You don't have a match out of those two,” he said.
“You can now only get a sitting President and a former Prime Minister on the other side, and I can assure you Raila is aware that even if he's to support Ruto, more than half would reject the Ruto candidature, unless Ruto steps down and supports Raila for presidency. That's the only chance broad-based will have.”
