President William Ruto’s aide Farouk Kibet and Malava UDA primaries losers Simon Kangwana and Leonard Shimaka at Namagara on Wednesday /HILTON OTENYO
The Malava parliamentary by-election has taken shape after UDA settled on Kakamega county assembly minority leader David Ndakwa as its flag bearer.
The party’s internal contest ended with defeated aspirants Leonard Shimaka and Simon Kangwana conceding and pledging support for Ndakwa.
They argued that defecting or going independent would be costly and politically untenable. Another loser, Ryan Injendi, said he would remain in UDA but accused Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi of “frustrating his family’s political ambitions”.
Ndakwa will battle it out with Seth Panyako (DAP-K), Edgar Busiega (DCP), Wilberforce Tuvei (Kenya-Moja), Joab Manyasi (DNA) and Caleb Sunguti (Roots Party) in the contest to replace the late Malulu Injendi.
The race has rekindled old political rivalries.
Mudavadi will spearhead Ndakwa’s campaign against his former secretary general at ANC, Cleophas Malala—now deputy leader of DCP—who is fronting Busiega.
Malala is no stranger to Malava’s campaign terrain, having contested against Panyako in 2017 and against Governor Fernandes Barasa in 2022.
Deputy Governor Ayub Savula has opted for neutrality despite DAP-K fielding Panyako, wary of clashing with his boss, Barasa.
Barasa backs UDA, in line with ODM’s non-participation and the broad-based government spirit. His stance also keeps him from contradicting DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa.
Attention now shifts to whether the ‘G8’ Kakamega MPs—aligned to CS Wycliffe Oparanya but supportive of President William Ruto’s re-election—will actively campaign or remain on the sidelines.
Analyst Martin Andati notes their involvement may depend on campaign financing.
With shifting loyalties and overlapping party interests, Malava is shaping up as a critical litmus test of Western Kenya’s evolving political alliances.
Instant analysis
The Malava by-election is more than a local contest; it is a proxy war over Western Kenya’s political future. UDA’s pick of David Ndakwa, backed by Musalia Mudavadi, sets up a clash with Cleophas Malala, who is rallying behind DCP’s Edgar Busiega. The race exposes tensions within the government’s “broad-based” alliance, as Savula, Barasa and Wamalwa weigh competing loyalties. Meanwhile, ODM’s absence gives Ruto’s team a head start, but the fragmented opposition could still rally around Panyako. UDA’s ability to unify losers behind Ndakwa signals discipline, but Malava remains a barometer of whether Ruto can penetrate Western Kenya in 2027.
