A presidency forged in fire: President Ruto’s three years in office

September 13 marks exactly three years since William Ruto assumed Kenya's presidency, a period widely regarded as the most dramatic start to any presidency since independence.

“We found empty coffers,” former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua famously declared, capturing the tone that would mark Ruto's start at the helm.

Since that initial announcement, Ruto’s tenure has been a relentless baptism by fire, characterised by protests, economic turmoil and fierce political battles that have tested his resilience.

Ruto's administration has faced what many analysts describe as the most ferocious public backlash in the country’s history.

Unlike previous administrations that enjoyed extended honeymoon periods, the President found himself confronting organised mass protests within his first year.

The "Ruto Wantam" (one-term) slogan has become a rallying cry for his critics and agitators disillusioned with his leadership.

Ruto's attempt to create a "broad-based government" by bringing Raila Odinga-led opposition figures into his Cabinet has also created new fault lines.

Instead of quenching fires, it earned the President accusations of buying off opposition, with some dismissing the pact derisively as "bread-based government".

The economic front has also presented both significant achievements and profound vulnerabilities for the administration.

As a result, the opposition is putting up an arsenal which they say is aimed at handing Ruto a first one as the President who served one term in office.

Ruto's administrative team faced immediate turbulence, with at least eight cabinet secretaries battling major crises in their ministries before properly settling into their roles.

From nationwide power outages under CS Opiyo Wandayi to the challenges Health CS Aden Duale is facing in SHA rollout, the government seemed perpetually in crisis management mode.

The education sector also faced repeated threats of teacher strikes, the same with universities, where a new funding model has proven an uphill task.

Perhaps the most defining dynamic of Ruto's presidency has been his complex relationship with Kenya's youth.

The same demographic that helped propel him to power became the engine of the protest movement against his administration.

In response, Ruto's government launched initiatives such as the National Youth Opportunities Towards Advancement (Nyota) project, seeking to provide 100,000 youth with Sh50,000 business capital each.

It remains to be seen if these measures would pacify a generation frustrated with the high cost of living and perceived unfulfilled promises.

Critics have a dramatically different perspective on the administration's performance.

Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia offered a scathing assessment, saying, “Ruto has not fulfilled any of his promises.”

“I can count roads in Kipipiri, like that in Ndunyu Njeru with only 25km left, which have never been completed yet.”

“The dams he promised, like Marewa Dam, have not been built. No work is going on at the county hospitals, like JM Kariuki, as well as the stadiums.”

Her critique extended to policy changes, saying, "Ruto's university policy has also backfired. The current funding system can’t be compared with the old Helb system. Money is not getting to the universities.”

Muhia said a successful economy needs no explaining to be felt, noting that the Mwai Kibaki era required no such justification.

“If he curbs corruption, at least we will have hope. There is also no serious investment going on. The empowerment programmes have no lasting impact,” she said, adding that the government had yet to deal decisively with wastage.

“We thank God it is only two years to go before we remove this government from power. He started from worse and is doing worse by the day.”

However, some government defenders pointed to tangible progress in various sectors.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, emerging as the chief defender of the government's economic record, pushed back against critics.

“There are people spreading falsehoods that this government is not doing any job. It is not true. A lot has happened,” he said.

Kindiki said the economy was in the ICU when Ruto took over in 2022, particularly highlighting the challenge of an expensive dollar.

The government's intervention has successfully stabilised the shilling against the US dollar from Sh167 to Sh129, he said.

Kindiki pointed to tangible improvements in agricultural production as evidence of progress.

“Fertiliser, which cost Sh7,000 when we took over, now trades at below Sh3,000. We produced 70 million bags last year, from 32 million in 2022. We have doubled production in three years,” the DP said.

He argued that the developments contributed to measurable economic successes: GDP growth holding at 4.7 per cent last year and controlled inflation under 4 per cent.

The government also argues that agricultural revenues have shown significant improvement, with tea earnings jumping from Sh138 billion in 2022 to Sh215 billion last year.

The government's housing initiative and social health programme represented ambitious attempts to address long-standing challenges.

Kenya Kwanza officials pointed to widespread housing projects that would also solve hostel crises in universities and technical training institutes.

"Contractors are back to work in more than 580 road projects across the country," the DP said.

The Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) had registered 22 million Kenyans by the third anniversary, though the programme faced implementation challenges and criticism from various quarters.

Youthful Keiyo North MP Korir Kipsanai said, “We commend the job done byKenya Kwanza government. In the education sector, we have a good number of teachers who have been employed for junior secondary and primary schools across the country. Secondly, we have seen serious infrastructure projects in almost all primary schools to cater for Grade 9 and JSS.”

He highlighted agricultural improvements. “The subsidised fertiliser has worked. I come from a region which is a food basket and the subsidies have worked. This thing has helped sort out the issue of unemployment, especially for youth in rural areas.”

The MP pointed to physical development across the country.

“Many projects that were affected by pending bills are ongoing and the contractors are all over. You can see what is happening on the road heading to Serena, Ngong Road and across the country. We have small dams worth millions which are underway. I am not speaking of plans but projects that are already giving benefits," Kipsanai said.

Macharia Munene, a political commentator, provided a balanced perspective, saying, “Ruto is still finding his way around, much as he keeps talking  about how successful he is and how he is going to change everything and make Kenya a Singapore.”

Munene said the President himself had admitted to appointing “very incompetent people to run the country as policymakers,” concluding that “on balance, he has not come out very well.”

The academician highlighted the contrast between foreign and domestic perceptions.

“He tries very hard in his foreign affairs image to look like the leader of Africa, mainly to the Western powers and for some reason, he convinces them. His efforts to look good in foreign affairs are messed up by destructive domestic policies.”

Munene identified a crucial challenge facing the administration. “The President is also operating at a time when the population is so much aware and well-informed. Most of the youths were born and grew up during the Kibaki era, when things were working. The person who is to answer their questions is none other than Ruto.”

As Ruto marks three years in power, his presidency stands at a critical juncture.

Despite the turmoil, some observers argue that his consolidation of power through state machinery and relentless political strategy make him a formidable force likely to endure until 2032.

His administration continues to argue that he is making "the hard choices that others feared" to reshape Kenya's future through "bold, necessary reforms."

The fundamental question remains whether Ruto can transition from a presidency defined by crisis to one that delivers on its promised economic transformation.

With two years remaining until the next election, the man who rose from selling chicken to leading a nation of 50 million people still has time to rewrite his legacy, but the path grows steeper with each passing day of unrest.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Ruto's performance continues to be rated differently depending on which side of the political divide one stands. His first three years have indeed been a baptism by fire, testing the limits of presidential power. The coming years will determine whether this turbulent beginning will ultimately be remembered as a step towards transformation or a period of missed opportunities, unresolved conflicts.