Carcass of livestock/FILE The Greater Horn of Africa is bracing for another season of hardship, with the latest forecast warning that below-normal rains between October and December will heighten food insecurity, worsen malnutrition and fuel conflicts over scarce resources.
According to the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group for East and Central Africa, the strongest rainfall deficits are expected in southern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Kenya and parts of Tanzania.
The late onset of rains in some areas is also projected to shorten the growing season, limiting crop production, delaying pasture regeneration and worsening water shortages.
“Likely increase in resource-based conflict and insecurity during the dry period,” the forecast noted, raising concern about tensions in already fragile areas.
The warning comes amid protracted conflicts, mass displacement and shrinking humanitarian funding that are stretching relief efforts.
The group said humanitarian space is shrinking, limiting aid delivery, data collection and assessments and making timely response more difficult.
In Kenya, 6.4 million people are classified as stressed (IPC Phase 2); 1.58 million are in crisis (Phase 3); 179,300 are in emergency (Phase 4); while 1.76 million face crisis or worse conditions. The drivers include poor rainfall distribution, high staple food prices and disease burden.
Counties most affected by acute malnutrition include Turkana, Mandera, Samburu, Garissa, Baringo (Tiaty) and Marsabit (North Horr and Laisamis).
An estimated 741,883 children under five require treatment, slightly down from 800,202 during the 2024 short rains assessment.
The Kenya Meteorological Department’s weekly outlook (September 2–8) shows mixed weather patterns: western counties will experience morning rains and afternoon thunderstorms, while Turkana and Samburu will remain largely sunny.
Parts of central Kenya will see intermittent showers, with coastal counties likely to experience scattered rainfall.
Experts warn that without urgent, coordinated interventions, the humanitarian situation is likely to deteriorate further in the coming months.
