Raila's big dilema over Uhuru's 2027 backing

ODM leader Raila Odinga has once again found himself on the horns of a dilemma as resurgent Uhuru Kenyatta extends a surprise hand of support ahead of the 2027 elections.

Raila, who has vowed support to President William Ruto’s broad-based government, is widely expected to back the head of state's reelection in the coming polls.

Last month, the Star exclusively reported on powerful forces pushing Raila to disengage from Ruto and join the presidential race in 2027. These forces had the blessings of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.

“We still recognise Raila as the Azimio party leader. As a coalition, we will agree on how to proceed, but I can tell you that we are with Tinga [Raila] until we feel otherwise. Raila is the party leader and Uhuru is the chairman,” Jubilee deputy chairman David Murathe was reported as saying after the party’s NEC meeting.

The National Executive Council meeting was chaired by Uhuru himself, who joined virtually.

The development puts the ODM boss between two powerful forces: either choose to stick with Ruto, or embrace the fresh overtures from his former handshake partner.

Insiders say Uhuru, rattled by his former deputy’s 2022 ‘coup’, wants to rally anti-Ruto forces ahead of 2027.

According to sources, the retired President believes Raila still holds the unmatched ability to galvanise the opposition base and deny Ruto a second term.

At 82 by the next election, Raila’s age has sparked debate, but his political machinery remains intact. His grip on the Nyanza region is unshaken and his influence in Nairobi, the Coast, parts of Western and North Eastern Kenya still holds water.

There are also fears that breaking ranks with Ruto now could isolate the ODM boss and hand his enemies political fodder to paint him as unreliable.

Already, Raila’s allies are raising eyebrows at Uhuru’s renewed interest.

ODM deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi told the Star by phone Uhuru’s support is welcome so long as it does not demand disengagement from Ruto.

“ODM is a strong party and everyone wants to be associated with us. We will not tolerate parties giving us conditions on who should be our friends,” Osotsi said.

ODM’s radical wing, christened the Movement for Defence of Democracy, urged Raila to proceed cautiously with Uhuru.

MDD national leader Victor Marende told the Star that Jubilee cannot deliver the presidency to Raila, having failed to do so when they were in power.

“Teaming up with Jubilee Party, which has been technically out and done since mid 2018, is like committing political suicide,” Marende told the Star on phone.

“Raila Odinga has the constitutional right to vie in 2027, but my respectful opinion is that former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Party cannot deliver him to that much-needed victory that they could not deliver in 2022, with all the state apparatus.”

Raila allies like CSs Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and John Mbadi (Treasury) have also remained wary of burning bridges with Ruto.

Mbadi dismissed forces trying to separate Raila from Ruto.“The only thing that can block us from voting for Ruto is if they agree that he backs Raila. If that’s not possible, we must vote Ruto in 2027,” Mbadi said. “In 2027, UDA and ODM must work together. I’ve been national chairman for ten years—the political dynamics demand it.”

Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo also downplayed the likelihood of Raila bolting out of the Ruto truce, but suggested the two negotiate on who runs in 2027.

“It’s not automatic…that it is Ruto that we will support in 2027. We can also ask the President to support Raila. It is an issue of negotiation,” Millie said last week.

In a surprise political maneuver, Jubilee has announced a national delegates meeting set for later this month, as speculation that the party is warming up to back Raila for the 2027 contest grows.

The planned meeting also comes amid renewed public sightings of Uhuru and Raila allies working together, further fuelling talk of a possible revival of the 2018 handshake spirit.

The agenda for the Special NDC includes receiving a status report from the National Executive Committee, reviewing and formulating party policies and considering other key matters affecting the party.

In a formal notice dated August 5, Uhuru informed Jubilee members of the meeting.

“Pursuant to Article 8.1 and 10.1 of the Jubilee Party constitution, 21 days' notice is hereby issued for a Special National Delegates Convention to be held at the Jockey Club, Nairobi, Kenya,” the notice reads.

The announcement came just hours after Uhuru chaired a NEC meeting—the first since the conclusion of a string of legal battles that had cast uncertainty over the party's leadership and direction.

The upcoming NDC is expected to be a defining moment for Jubilee as it seeks to reassert itself on the national stage. 

Instant AnalysisRaila, after five unsuccessful presidential bids, is expected to either retire or back a 2027 coalition—which many observers believe will be Ruto’s camp. Apart from having some of his trusted lieutenants serving in Ruto’s cabinet, the ODM boss has also entered an MoU with the ruling UDA identifying ten areas of cooperation.