Kenya’s CHAN test: Why Harambee Stars will need more than luck to survive

But despite the dream start, a tough reality looms: the Harambee Stars are in the tournament’s most unforgiving pool — a group widely dubbed the group of death—and the odds are steeply stacked against them.

Group A features five-time participants Zambia, two-time winners Morocco, seasoned contenders Angola, and DR Congo — the most decorated team in history.

Kenya, by contrast, are the only debutant and the least experienced of the lot.

DR Congo: Past masters with a point to prove

Nicknamed the Leopards, DR Congo came into the 2024 edition as seven-time participants, having featured in 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2020, 2022, and now 2024.

They remain the tournament’s most successful team, having lifted the trophy twice — in 2009 and 2016.

Before falling to Kenya, DR Congo had accumulated an impressive record: 27 matches played, 12 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses, and a total of 42 points.

Under head coach Otis N’Goma, the team has embraced a modern tactical identity centred on disciplined defending, quick transitions, and flexible in-game adjustments.

TP Mazembe forward Oscar Kabwit is the man to watch, with his combination of physical strength, agility, and sharp finishing posing a continuous threat to any backline.

Kenya’s ability to keep a clean sheet against such an outfit was no small feat — but it also raised the stakes for what lies ahead.

Morocco: The reigning kings

If DR Congo represents historical dominance, Morocco stand tall as the present-day powerhouse.

The North Africans began their title defence with a convincing 2-0 win over Angola at the Nyayo National Stadium on August 3.

Now in their fifth Chan finals, the Atlas Lions are two-time champions — winning on home soil in 2018 and defending the crown in 2020, making them the only side besides DR Congo to have lifted the title more than once.

Morocco’s numbers are intimidating. They are unbeaten in opening matches and are currently on a 14-game unbeaten run in Chan, stretching back to their last defeat — a 1-0 loss to Côte d’Ivoire in 2016.

That was also their only defeat in 12 group matches, where they have six wins and five draws.

Their offensive prowess has been emphatic. Morocco has previously posted 4–0 wins over African heavyweights Nigeria (2018) and Cameroon (2020).

They have also produced two of the tournament’s top scorers: Ayoub El Kaabi with 9 goals in 2018 and Soufiane Rahimi with 5 in 2020.

Out of 20 matches played, Morocco boasts 13 wins, five draws, and just two losses — amassing a formidable 44 points.

The Atlas Lions face Kenya on August 10 at Kasarani in what will likely be the Stars’ toughest test yet.

Zambia: The unbeaten group-stage specialists

Another formidable hurdle for Kenya will be Zambia, who open its campaign against DR Congo on August 7.

This will be Zambia’s fifth appearance, and they have a track record of always advancing past the group stage.

Zambia have never lost a group match at Chan — winning six and drawing six out of 12.

They have conceded only three goals in those group matches and have kept eight clean sheets in that phase alone.

Their opening-match record is equally strong, with four straight wins: 3–0 vs Côte d’Ivoire (2009), 1–0 vs Zimbabwe (2016), 3–1 vs Uganda (2018), and 2–0 vs Tanzania (2020).

Although they are currently on a three-match winless run since beating Tanzania in 2020, Zambia’s consistency and defensive rigidity make them one of the most difficult teams to break down.

Of their 17 Chan games, they have won seven, drawn seven, and lost only three — all after the group stage — collecting 28 points in total.

Angola - Inconsistent but dangerous

Angola will face Kenya on August 7 at the Kasarani Stadium.

While their Chan record is less sparkling than Morocco or Zambia, they remain unpredictable and capable of pulling off surprises.

This is their fifth appearance. They were runners-up in 2011, reached the quarterfinals in 2016, and exited in the group stage in both 2016 and 2022.

Despite this, they’ve never won an opening match — their past openers include draws with Tunisia (1-1, 2011), Burkina Faso (0-0, 2018), and Mali (3-3, 2022).

Since their last Chan victory — a 1-0 win over Cameroon in 2018 — Angola have gone five matches without a win, including Sunday’s 2-0 defeat by Morocco.

Of their eight tournament draws, five ended 0-0, two ended 1-1, and the highest-scoring draw was 3-3 against Mali in 2022.

Angola qualified for Chan 2024 after edging Lesotho 2-1 on aggregate — winning 2-0 away but losing 1-0 at home.

In total, Angola have played 16 Chan games, won three, drawn eight, and lost five — the most recent being their defeat to Morocco.

Kenya: Heart, hope and Harsh reality for Harambee Stars

For Kenya, the 1-0 win over DR Congo has given fans something to believe in.

But the gulf in experience, quality, and tournament pedigree compared to their group rivals is undeniable.

Zambia have never failed to exit the group. Morocco are unbeaten in 14 games. Angola, despite inconsistency, are capable of cagey, frustrating football.

DR Congo, despite their slow start, remain the tournament’s most successful team.

As they prepare to face Angola and Morocco in their remaining group games, the Harambee Stars will need tactical discipline, composure under pressure, and a level of execution rarely demanded of them in regional tournaments.

The win against DR Congo was a breakthrough, but surviving this group will take far more than luck.

Many hope the Sh600 million prize money they have been promised by President William Ruto should they win the trophy, will boost their morale.