How youth power will reset political math in 2027 polls

The youthful demographic, popularly known as Gen Z, has in the past two years sparked an unprecedented generational awakening that is threatening to upend Kenya’s traditional power dynamics.

What began as a digital revolt against punitive tax proposals has since evolved into a formidable national movement — officially leaderless, unrelenting and politically disruptive.

Once dismissed as politically disengaged, the youth have now become a decisive and unpredictable force that everyone wants to woo.

The youth revolt, especially in 2024 and this year, and youth’s continuing criticism of the system and particular politicians online, sends shivers through the establishment.

Their ability to mobilise across platforms such as X, TikTok, WhatsApp and Instagram has caught political veterans off guard, threatening to scupper the long-standing playbook of ethnic arithmetic and grassroots patronage.

Gen Z, also known as Zoomers, is the demographic succeeding Millennials and preceding Generation Alpha.

The mid-to-late 1990s are generally considered the starting birth years and the early 2010s as ending birth years.

The generation is loosely defined as people born around 1997 to 2012. Gen Z in Kenya is broad and includes those on both “ends” of the demographic.

The big issues are will they unify? Will they register? Will they vote? In the past, young people have ranted, railed and rallied against the establishment, but have not registered and cast their ballots.

Will 2027 be different?

Ex-political detainee and former ODM director of strategy Wafula Buke described the youth uprising as an existential threat to the current political elite.

“It is a very uncomfortable state of affairs. It is the case of having something emotional, and you don’t know where to hold to break or even pull back. It is a frightening thing to the established politicians,” Buke told the Star.

“What we are experiencing is a movement, which is more radical than the traditional state leadership. The established leadership has no influence, and therefore what they are doing is buying time to figure out how to relate with this group.”

The political awakening has forced Kenya’s old guard to confront a new reality: traditional methods of voter manipulation — through tribal loyalties or handouts — are rapidly losing effectiveness with a youth constituency that values integrity, transparency, dignity and direct action.

With more than 40 per cent of Kenya’s 22.1 million registered voters under the age of 35, the impact of this demographic cannot be ignored.

The 2019 Kenya Population Census revealed that nearly five million more youth would be eligible to vote by 2027 — including 2.4 million who were aged 13-14 in 2019 and another two million who were younger than 18 by 2022.

Now, political heavyweights — from former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka to former CS Fred Matiang’i, retired CJ David Maraga, and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah — are actively courting the youth vote.

However, attempts by opposition politicians to ride on the June 25 momentum of the Gen Z memorial march and protests were met with muted responses.

The initially peaceful marches countrywide were later hijacked by thugs, some hired, to cause trouble and discredit them, some just out to loot for themselves.

Politicians’ presence at the protests was brief, inconsequential and largely overlooked.

“Shame on you, Chief Justice Maraga,” National Assembly Deputy Speaker Gladys Shollei scolded the former CJ.

“You’re currently on a pension paid by the government. They pay for your cars, they pay for your gardener, they pay for your cook and then you go to the streets to demonstrate and mislead our children to destroy people’s properties,” Shollei said.

Meanwhile, the Gen Z movement has reignited civic and religious voices.

Since the 2024 protests, several churches have distanced themselves from political endorsements, rejecting donations and barring politicians from speaking on the pulpit.

On Tuesday, Catholic bishops issued a strong statement condemning state abuses and calling for accountability.

“The government’s primary responsibility is to protect its citizens, not to threaten or silence them,” they said.

“A society that instils fear in its youth is one walking away from justice.”

They urged the state to respect civic freedoms and recognise that youth are not the enemies of the state but citizens with valid concerns.

This marks a departure from previous years, when the church was accused of cosying up to the government; religion is a platform some say helped the current administration ascend to power.

Despite their unpredictable loyalty, political bigwigs are swiftly rethinking and realigning their strategies to win over the youth.

President William Ruto’s UDA party has been conducting nationwide town halls forums throughout 2023 and 2024, targeting university students and first-time voters.

The opposition has become the self-proclaimed number one defender of youth interests.

Unity Test Yet, despite the spotlight, questions remain whether the Gen Z bloc will remain unified — or fall prey to the same tribal and party divisions that have historically fragmented Kenya’s electorate.

Political commentator Javas Bigambo said the youth hold transformative potential — if they can resist ethnic and partisan divisions.

“If they mobilise themselves away from tribe, region and party, they will be a strong vote that will determine who is in and who is out,” Bigambo said.

Social media activist Morara Kebaso warned that disunity remains a major threat.

“We can unite and consolidate our energy to work for us, like the money we didn’t have. But such unity is not easy because of individual interests, tribal kingpin influence and jealousy,” Kebaso said.

Former Planning PS Irungu Nyakera, who is eyeing the Nairobi governor seat, urged leaders to take the youth seriously or risk a deeper political reckoning.

“Please listen to the youths. Come to the table with solutions. If you do not address these simmering issues now, the protests will continue,” Nyakera told the Star.

Far from being a passing storm, the Gen Z uprising is now shaping the narrative around Kenya’s future.

The question is no longer whether the youth can make a difference — but whether the political class is ready for the consequences, if they don’t.