Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka faces an uphill battle and increasingly complex terrain as he aims to topple President William Ruto in 2027.
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party is now backing former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, known as Mr Fixit and, in effect, then-DP Ruto’s replacement. It had earlier been expected that the Kenyatta family would throw their weight behind Kalonzo, vice president from 2008 to 2013.
Apart from the Uhuru factor, Kalonzo is also facing stiff internal competition within the new alliance of opposition heavyweights, which may well slow down his bid.
The expected Kenyatta backing significantly disrupts Kalonzo’s strategy to challenge President Ruto, particularly after ODM leader Raila Odinga shifted his allegiance to the head of state.
Within the new anti-Ruto opposition grouping, Kalonzo faces impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, and People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua — all determined to get rid of Ruto. Gachagua is organising an anti-Ruto opposition, though he himself is not considered a viable candidate, rather a Kikuyu chauvinist and champion of Mt Kenya, lacking national appeal. Wamalwa and Karua would like to be president.
The emergence of Matiang’i as a potential candidate — apparently with Uhuru’s backing — introduces a dynamic that could divide the opposition, and complicate, or thwart, Kalonzo’s State House bid. Matiang’i is famous as an abrasive tough guy who gets things done.
Political analysts suggest Kalonzo could find himself joining the Ruto-Raila political axis, especially if Uhuru succeeds in rallying the remaining Azimio troops to unanimously position Matiang’i as the opposition candidate.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni, widely seen as Uhuru’s political proxy, has intensified efforts to endorse Matiang’i.
He has been holding meetings with Jubilee members across the country, signalling a calculated move to consolidate anti-Ruto forces and shift them away from the banner of Kalonzo and ex-DP Gachagua.
Sources indicate Uhuru’s camp is keen on pairing Matiang’i with a deputy from the vote-rich Mt Kenya region, a strategy to counter Ruto’s efforts to undo his waning support there.
Names floated for this role include Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, a rising political figure who broke ranks with Ruto after his unceremonious removal as chair of the powerful House Budget committee. He also abstained from removing Gachagua.
The perceived closeness between Kalonzo and Gachagua has reportedly unsettled Uhuru’s camp, concerned the Wiper leader has ceded too much political ground to the former Deputy President.
Critics within the opposition argue Kalonzo’s frequent appearances alongside Gachagua — who often takes centre stage at joint rallies — have inadvertently diminished his stature, casting him as a secondary figure in their association.
“How do you anchor your presidential ambitions on someone who lost his title and is now just a former MP?” a source within the opposition ranks asked, highlighting the skepticism about Gachagua’s viability as a kingmaker.
They acknowledge, however, the former Deputy President’s influence in Central Kenya remains potent, despite his legal troubles.
While Gachagua has been effective in rallying dissent against Ruto, his own political future remains uncertain due to his impeachment and pending court cases. He is commonly accused of being a tribalist, Mt Kenya-centric, hardly appealing to Kenya as a whole.
Further complicating matters is Jubilee’s apparent discomfort with Gachagua’s perceived attempts to anoint MP candidates, while avoiding a direct run himself.
Jubilee insiders suggest, therefore, that Uhuru views Matiang’i as a more credible and unifying figure, given his successful records in the ICT, Education and Interior ministries in the previous administrations.
When pressed whether Uhuru had abandoned Kalonzo, Kioni remained evasive, emphasising Jubilee’s focus on rebuilding its identity.
“You cannot grow a party without a presidential candidate,” he said, hinting at Matiang’i’s likely nomination while leaving room for future coalition negotiations.
Wiper deputy secretary general Dan Maanzo dismissed claims Kalonzo has been overshadowed by Gachagua, framing their alliance as a strategic necessity.
“We need a strong Gachagua to consolidate the Mt Kenya vote,” Maanzo said, downplaying speculation of competition.
He also dismissed the possibility of a Kikuyu presidential candidate — or even a Kikuyu running mate, warning that such a move would split the opposition and guarantee Ruto’s reelection. There have already been too many Kikuyus in Kenya’s government, he indicated.
“Ndindi Nyoro knows that bait and won’t take it,” Maanzo added, suggesting the young MP had better resist being used as a decoy to fragment anti-Ruto forces.
For Kioni, however, opposition cohesion remains elusive; he has asserted that Azimio’s key affiliates — ODM, Wiper, and DAP-K — have effectively jumped ship.
He claimed Wiper and DAP-K are now forming a new alliance called the ‘Loyal Movement’, while Raila’s engagement with Ruto’s government has left Jubilee on its own.
Kioni cast Matiang’i’s candidacy as a revival of Jubilee’s development agenda, citing what he called neglected priorities such as healthcare, education, and youth employment and empowerment.
“Those are issues that have been abandoned completely,” he said, calling Matiang’i the leader best suited to restore Kenya’s growth trajectory.
President Ruto’s critics say he has not lived up to his 2022 pre-election pledges, hence, he should consider packing up. Ruto denies lack of development and ignoring youth jobs and healthcare, citing projects, affordable housing, TVET, SHA and Shif.
Matiang’i’s backers highlight his tenure in the ICT, Education, and Interior dockets as evidence of his administrative competence.
They say his candidacy could attract multi-partisan support, including from the disillusioned Gen Z voters.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua said Matiang’i’s prospects hinge on securing emphatic endorsements from both Uhuru and Raila, otherwise, his bid may struggle to gain momentum.
Meanwhile, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka confirmed Matiang’i would soon return to Kenya, leaving his World Bank job, to intensify his campaign, including perception surveys to gauge his viability as president.
On the other side, however, President Ruto’s allies remain confident the incumbency, his achievements, and grassroots mobilisation will prove insurmountable.
They say Kenya Kwanza’s economic reforms have stabilised the country, lowering key prices, and making it difficult for any challenger to unseat him.
Mwala MP Vincent Musau (Kawaya) dismissed Kalonzo’s chances outright, asserting the Wiper leader lacks the political muscle to cut into Ruto’s support base.
“He is sitting at home, hoping for a miracle,” Musau scoffed, suggesting Kalonzo’s expected vote share would be negligible.
He advised Kalonzo to instead seek a role in Ruto’s broad-based government rather than chase an elusive presidency in the Gachagua axis. As the 2027 race takes shape, Kalonzo’s biggest challenge may not be Ruto but the challenge of weaving a durable joint opposition.
With Uhuru apparently backing Matiang’i, Raila cosying up to the government, and Gachagua’s influence waning, pundits say the Wiper leader must recalibrate his strategy.
They argue that he risks becoming politically isolated, saying Matiang’i’s rise is likely to eclipse him — that is, if he hasn’t already.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
Kalonzo was a co-principal in the Azimio coalition ahead of the 2022 elections. Raila's shift to Ruto's camp was expected to give him a launching pad for his 2027 bid, should he choose to attempt it. Observers point out, however, that there is little to show for Kalonzo’s efforts to fill the vacuum. A consolidated opposition is viewed as a sure way of sending Ruto packing. But with the increasingly shifting landscape, it remains to be seen if he can fulfill the opposition dream of removing Ruto.
