Gachagua’s shadow looms large after Ruto’s Mt Kenya visit.

President William Ruto’s recent five-day tour of the Mount Kenya region, meant to reaffirm his grip on a crucial voting bloc, instead laid bare the growing political shadow of his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.

The tour, encompassing Laikipia, Nyeri, Meru, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Murang'a, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and Kiambu counties, was framed as development-focused, but analysts say it revealed political divisions and Gachagua's growing grip in some counties.

Ruto's visit saw varied receptions. Laikipia and Meru welcomed him with enthusiasm, while Kiambu and Nyeri—areas linked to Gachagua—were lukewarm.

Juja MP George Koimburi told The Star that the former DP has won the hearts of Mount Kenya residents, setting the stage for a political succession battle in 2027.

"The President's visit was unremarkable. He presented nothing new," Koimburi said, emphasising concerns about Gachagua's influence.

Koimburi criticised Ruto’s tour, describing it as a missed opportunity to reconnect with voters.

He said the President should be deeply concerned about Gachagua’s growing influence in the region, noting that a lot is yet to come.

 “Gachagua’s impact is undeniable, and with the political landscape constantly evolving, much will change before 2027. People are closely watching these developments,” he added.

Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia echoed this, stating Ruto's influence is waning and the tour was more political than developmental.

 "Ruto is living on borrowed time. Kenyans are simply waiting for his term to end," Muhia said, noting Gachagua's strengthening grip.

Muhia argued that while residents attended Ruto’s rallies out of respect for his position as the head of state, the hostility he encountered in some areas was a clear indication that all is not well in the Mountain.

However, Kiamwangi MCA Kungu Smart urged unity and respect for Ruto, cautioning against communalising the differences between the former allies (Ruto and Gachagua) and emphasising the need to focus on economic development.

 "The President deserves the respect of all Kenyans. We need to stop fixating on 2027 politics and rally behind Ruto’s leadership for the sake of progress," Kungu said.

He warned that continued hostility toward the head of state and his allies could have significant economic repercussions for the region.

“When the time for elections comes, we can engage in politics. For now, Ruto is the head of state, and he should be allowed to execute his mandate without interference,” he added

Murang’a Woman Representative Betty Maina recently urged the electorate to shun divisive politics and embrace unity and support the government.

Maina said the government is working around the clock to fulfil its campaign manifesto.

Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi, who faced hostility on Wednesday in Kirinyaga after urging people not to follow Gachagua, echoed this.

“Sisi kama watu wa Mathira hatuungi Rigathi Gachagua mkono,” he said. This loosely translates to (As Mathira residents, we don't support Gachagua).

Wamumbi has been a close ally of President Ruto and has been championing the government agenda in the region.

Analysts warn the growing rift between Ruto and Gachagua loyalists could cost the President dearly in 2027.

“Whoever controls Mount Kenya will likely win the presidency,” political analyst Gakuo Munene said, adding, “Gachagua has already denied Ruto the 3.5 million votes he got in 2022. The region feels disconnected from the administration.”

He added that the impeached DP remains the undisputed leader of the region and could deny Ruto millions of votes if he continues to galvanize local leaders against him.

On Sunday, April 6, Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba said the President should visit the Mount Kenya region every three months, as it would be an opportunity for the residents to get free handouts from the government.

Taking to social media, she said the visit was a great opportunity for the residents to earn money from attending the rallies.

"Mr President should visit Mt Kenya every three months. It was a good ATM for the locals and a political mirror for him and his Yes MPs," the vocal MP added.

However, she cautioned the so-called 'Yes MPs,' noting that they are at risk of losing their seats in the next election, as has been the case before.

Political analyst Andrew Maringa argued that Gachagua’s prominence in Mount Kenya politics is deeply rooted in regional loyalty and identity, rather than being a direct challenge to President Ruto’s leadership.

He said that as a "son of the soil," Gachagua resonates with the people of Mount Kenya because he speaks directly to their unique struggles and aspirations, presenting himself as a champion of their interests.

“Ruto’s development agenda is important, but it cannot overshadow the political realities on the ground, Gachagua’s influence stems from his ability to connect with local grievances and position himself as the voice of the region. His rise reflects a deep connection with Mount Kenya voters who feel increasingly alienated from Ruto’s administration.” Maringa said.

Maringa added that Gachagua’s appeal is fuelled by his ability to embody regional identity, making him a symbol of Mount Kenya’s political autonomy.

“This dynamic has complicated Ruto’s efforts to consolidate support in the area, especially as Gachagua continues to galvanise grassroots backing through rhetoric that aligns closely with local concerns,” he said.

He pointed that the heckling of Kiambu Woman Representative Ann Wamuratha in the presence of the President wasn’t a good sign.

The head of state questioned where the residents had learnt the act of shouting at leaders when addressing them.

"Sasa nyinyi, nani aliwafunza kupigia watu makelele? Basi makelele sasa itoshe hapo," the President said.

Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichungw'ah had also faced a tough time also while addressing a crowd of people that had turned up for Ruto's tour in Ol Kalou, Nyandarua county.

Ichung'wah, who was visibly frustrated, was forced to cut his speech short after he struggled to communicate his message to the crowd.

However, speaking in Murang'a county, the Kikuyu lawmaker downplayed the heckling, insisting that he was more concerned with development matters.

Ichung'wah urged Mt Kenya residents not to be distracted by those making noise but instead continue demanding development from elected leaders.

"We should not allow people making noise to instill fear in you. Let them make noise, but we were focused on development. But when the time of politics comes, we shall then ask elsewhere what each of us has delivered," he said.  

Political analyst Fwamba NC Fwamba said Gachagua’s influence in Mount Kenya is likely to be short-lived, suggesting that President Ruto has already lost significant ground in the region.

Fwamba said that while there remains some sympathy for the former DP following his impeachment, Gachagua lacks the financial and structural resources necessary to sustain long-term political dominance.

“There is still residual sympathy for Gachagua after his impeachment,” Fwamba explained. “However, by 2027, I believe Mount Kenya voters will prioritize their economic interests over Gachagua’s personal grievances. His influence may fade as the electorate focuses on tangible benefits rather than emotional loyalty.”

Fwamba emphasised that while Gachagua’s rhetoric resonates with certain segments of the population, the region’s voting patterns are likely to shift toward pragmatic considerations, particularly economic development.

Herman Manyora, political analyst, speaking on his weekly analysis show, cautioned Ruto to be wary of Gachagua.

According to Manyora, Gachagua’s statements about Ruto’s administration are being widely accepted by the public as gospel truth, posing a significant threat to the President’s reputation.

“Ruto should be deeply concerned about what Gachagua and figures like former Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi are doing,” Manyora said. “They have nothing to lose, and their criticisms are resonating with the public. The President must seek counsel from credible advisors and urgently address the damage to his reputation.”