AJUOK: Evolution of Luo Nyanza politics surprises friend, foe alike

At the height of his own political union with local kingpin, Raila Odinga, ahead of the 2022 election, President Uhuru’s Kenyatta’s security guards seemed to throw their hands up in the air and let crowds swarm the President’s motorcade. In fact, there was a trending footage of Uhuru dancing, deep into the night, with local traditional dance troupes, in the heart of Kisumu, just before the August 2022 election, with no security in sight.

Last week, President William Ruto was on a whirlwind tour of the region. Not many people ever notice presidential guards in politically charged rallies, but there they were, struggling, at peak temperatures, to contain the large crowds breaching the security barrier and practically besieging the presidential limousine.

But, like all those who preceded him, Ruto appeared to acknowledge the lakeside cardinal rule that no harm ever befalls a dignitary in Kisumu, amidst the adulation from residents, including within the volatile Kondele area, where the President stopped to have a chit-chat with cheering crowds over a previous visit where he received a hostile reception.

But that is beside the point. The news that brought a level of sensation within media and political circles was the tumultuous reception that the head of state received all over Luo Nyanza. It caused anger and joy in equal measure across the landscape. In Kenya’s tribally-divided political space, regime supporters from especially the Mount Kenya region took to social media, lamenting that Ruto was getting rockstar cheers in a region that hadn’t invested anything in helping elect his government.

Quite hilariously, many such commentators even made time to “support” the candidature of Raila’s opponent for the AU Commission chairmanship, Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf. Never mind that none qualifies to vote when the time comes for the AUC position to be filled, later in February.

But the sentiments were testament to the changing political dynamics in the country, with the Mount Kenya region getting more and disenchanted with the close working relationship between the ODM chief and President Ruto. National Assembly Majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah couldn’t have captured in better, when he alluded to the evident gratitude expressed by the Luo community after only two Cabinet appointments, sharply contrasting with his own community’s ingratitude, despite holding seven CS slots on top of the Deputy President one.

The inability of the Luo community to hold political grudges often causes frustrations, both among their coalition partners and rivals alike. As the Azimio coalition has recently discovered, from quite a rude awakening I must add, one moment, the Luo are the vanguard of the joint cause for which you are in a coalition, and the next moment, they are gone, to a man, into a new arrangement.

This unpredictable character is borne out of the community’s long decades of marginalisation by the state, which ultimately created a siege mentality in which it makes collective moves based purely on community interests, even where the rest of the nation feels they should go only a certain way.

Besides, it is clear that friends and foes underestimate the value of certain things the Luo hold dear. For instance, after Ruto’s State House feted Raila like a king, during the launch of his AU chairperson campaigns, in the presence of regional heads of state, the Luo were bound to reciprocate during the President’s visit which followed almost immediately.

Additionally, there are community firsts from the Ruto regime that are difficult to ignore. In just two years, the President has already made the Gen Francis Ogolla the first member of the community to ever rise to four-star general and Chief of Defence Forces. Beyond that, not only has Dorcas Oduor become the first woman to hold the Office of Attorney General, but she is also the first member of the Luo community to do so.

To crown it all, PS Raymond Omollo, having been appointed to the powerful and prestigious post at Interior, is the first since the legendary Hezekiah Oyugi, to preside over the critical security portfolio. Even with the CS appointments of former MPs Opiyo Wandayi and John Mbadi, I believe that President Ruto should and will make Omollo the focal point of the rapprochement with the Luo community. This is due to his all-encompassing security and intelligence reach, a key ingredient in reading the mood and the pulse of the ground as political action becomes more intense.

However, given that Ruto worked closely with the Luo community in 2007, when he was a member of the indomitable ODM Pentagon, he will understand that the unequivocal and loyal support that Luo Nyanza offers to a cause once they commit to it, is tempered with their unmatched affinity for walking out at the very first sign of discomfort. For reference, the President doesn’t need to look further than 2002, when he was a senior actor in the ruling party Kanu, at a time when Raila  led a massive march out of Kanu, which accelerated the fall from power of the independence party and got the opposition storming into power.

Ruto and his regime have already built for themselves a dubious reputation in the country as purveyors of lies and unkept promises. Whereas some regions in the nation may not bother about the veracity of presidential declarations and development blueprints, the lakeside people are thoroughly sensitive to state manipulation and political deceit. The fastest way for the regime to get them disenchanted and on the way out will be to peddle lies to them.

The flipside is that should Ruto prove to be a dependable ally, then in the Luo, he has found the most critical and trustworthy vote bloc in the country, a brilliant possession before he seeks reelection. The major concern though is that the excitement from the formation of his broad-based government, and the addictive adulation by the Luo community, is obviously driving the President back to SUV sunroofs, in early campaign mode, which may compromise service delivery and set the entire ruling establishment into a 2027 footing and negate whatever gains have been made.

In all the drama, one group whose fate we must mention is the Azimio coalition, to which Raila and ODM still belong, at least officially. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has already declared himself the new leader of the opposition outfit, while also demanding that ODM relinquishes the leadership positions it holds in Parliament. It is a strange way to respond to the changing scene.

No matter what he and his allies may say, Kalonzo desperately needs the Raila bases for any effective presidential run in 2027. His best shot is not to antagonise these bases, but to embrace them and pose as a friend of ODM, while hoping that the Raila-Ruto friendship will be a short-lived venture based purely on the two gentlemen’s short-term interests. This way, a return of Raila’s people to Kalonzo’s arms may be possible ahead of the next election. But only if he maintains respect for them.

Political commentator