- Turkana and Samburu counties will also remain dry this week, he said.
- Nearly all global weather forecasts point to a transition to an El Niño state in the second half of 2023.
Large parts of the country will remain dry this week, after days of rains that increased the risk of flooding.
Head of the meteorological department Dr David Gikungu said chances of rainfall in northeastern (Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo counties) are minimal this week.
There is only a small chance of rain on Wednesday but the rest of the week will be dry.
Turkana and Samburu counties will also remain dry this week, he said.
“Rainfall is expected to continue over the highlands east and west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin, the Rift Valley and the Coast. The rest of the country is likely to be generally dry,” he said in a five-day forecast.
This means rains are expected in Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia and West Pokot counties.
There is also a chance for morning and afternoon rains in Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka and Nairobi counties.
The rains are expected to continue into June because of the El Nino, which is already gathering.
Kenya is among 20 countries at risk of heavy rains caused by El Niño, according to the Global Information and Early Warning System update by the Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Countries at risk of excessive rainfall include Kenya, Afghanistan, Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bhutan, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, Pakistan, Paraguay, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United States, Uruguay and Uzbekistan.
Nearly all global weather forecasts point to a transition to an El Niño state in the second half of 2023. “Rainfall patterns during El Niño events tend to be the reverse of La Nina. For example, in East Africa and Near East Asian countries, there is a tendency for wetter conditions,” the FAO early warning update said.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development's (Igad's) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre says the greatest impact of El Niño in the Horn of Africa is mostly felt during the short rains, which begin in October.
The Igad states are Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (Eritrea is currently inactive), and is based in Djibouti. However, Icpac is stationed in Nairobi.
“There is a strong association between a canonical El Niño and a wet Greater Horn of Africa short rains,” Igad says.
The FAO Global Information and Early Warning System report indicated that in El Niño-induced dry weather countries, there will be an adverse impact on cereal production in 2023-24. This will potentially aggravate local food insecurity.
FAO said the El Niño oceanographic phenomenon is a key driver of extreme weather events that pose high risks to global food security.
The report indicated that already in 2022, the number of people facing acute food insecurity was projected to reach 222 million in 53 countries/territories. This is the highest level on record, according to the latest Hunger Hotspots report.
“The escalation in food insecurity is a consequence of the combined effects of conflicts, economic shocks and weather extremes,” the FAO report read.
It recommended distribution of farming tools and seeds of drought-tolerant crop varieties well in advance of planting seasons. Distribution of feed and provision of animal health support, with particular emphasis on chemicals to ensure a regular dipping regime and appropriate vaccination of livestock.
FAO also recommended rehabilitation of irrigation intakes, canals and other water points; promotion of capacity development and support to farmers on water-harvesting techniques; developing capacity of farmers and providing support on post-harvest management and processing to minimise losses.