President William Ruto's new power men Eliud Owalo — the ICT Cabinet Secretary and Interior PS Raymond Omollo — have mounted a campaign to challenge his political clout.
Their mission, as witnessed in the most recent weeks, is to win the region leaders to work with Kenya Kwanza, the government of the day.
Raila beat Ruto in Nyanza during the August 8 general election but the President is argued could have garnered some surprising numbers from the forays he has made in the region.
Immediately after election, the President toured Homa Bay in a series of events where area leaders kept away. He was hosted by Omollo whom he later handed the powerful Interior CS docket.
Last month, Ruto made what was hailed as the most successful engagement with Nyanza leaders to chart the region’s development path.
It was reported that the meeting had the blessings of the ODM leader and portended that the rivalry between the camps was thawing.
From the endeavour, it was widely held that the Kenya Kwanza boss was making small wins in managing the rebellion that greeted his win in the last election.
Their success story was cited in the recent shock visit by top ODM to State House, rattling the Odinga-led party to threaten sanctions against the lot.
Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda, MPs Felix Odiwuor aka Jalang'o (Lang'ata), Mark Nyamita (Uriri), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Elisha Odhiambo (Gem), Paul Abuor (Rongo) and Walter Owino (Awendo) were in the team.
Jalang'o, who is Raila's MP, was on Thursday blocked to the meeting hall at Maanzoni Lodge, where Raila was met Azimio parliamentarians.
"I feel bad that I have been kicked out of the meeting. I'm a member of ODM and Azimio. I will not apologise for meeting with the President because I met him on development issues," Jalang’o said before leaving.
The State House meeting followed hot on heels of a high-powered meeting at Hotel Kempinski, where a number of Luo professionals under the stewardship of CS Owalo pledged allegiance to President Ruto.
Most of the professionals were once key Raila political advisers, and have now joined Owalo, who is also a Raila protégé.
The moves have elicited the debate on whether Raila is losing the grip of Nyanza, the grand question being whether the Ruto men will succeed in turning the tables against Raila.
Perennial bungling of ODM nominations, where a select few are handed direct tickets instead of letting ODM supporters vote for their favourites, has been cited as fuelling the rebellion.
Political observers have no common view on whether the story of Nyanza politics will change in favour of Ruto or the new sheriffs in town.
For some, as long as Raila is alive, it would be nearly impossible to go against his grain. Others hold that pockets of defiance that have emerged in various spots in Raila's political base are proof of his waning clout.
Sometimes back in 2013, a group of young leaders from the region sought to challenge the status quo in a campaign that was billed as Kalausi — Dholuo for rising Nyanza.
Those who joined the movement that was led by former Rongo MP Dalmas Otieno from the shadows have not had an easy political journey in the region since then.
The ODM Young Turks fell by the wayside, including Ken Obura (Kisumu Central)— until recently when Uhuru Kenyatta named him CAS —, Agostino Neto (Ndhiwa) and George Oner (Rangwe), among many others.
Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi says it would not be easy to dislodge Raila from the strong footing of the Lake region.
“They [Ruto men] cannot destabilize Raila’s support in Nyanza. It is not possible. Who is even discussing Raila’s influence in Nyanza? You cannot discuss Raila’s influence. It is not a matter of discussion. As long as Raila is alive, no one should ever attempt to discuss his influence,” Atandi said.
The ODM lawmaker dismissed his colleagues who are under fire for visiting State House on Tuesday as persons who were pursuing individual interests.
“The MPs went to State House on their own. We are a political party democracy so should, we should take the position of the party. If you go on your own, it means you are against the party. Their action has no bearing on the Raila support,” Atandi quipped.
But some pundits disagree with the assumption of Raila being irreplaceable, saying past elections have disapproved the same.
Prof Olang Sana of Maseno University argues that “Raila lost nearly his entire support base in Nyanza immediately Ruto’s win was confirmed by the Supreme Court.”
“Any politician who still hangs around him is a day dreamer. Of course, he still retains some emotional attachment with the unemployed and semi-literate Luo youth who can't contend with the reality that Jakom lost. They live in self denial,” Olang said.
His position was challenged though by former MCA Ben Ombima, a key Raila mobiliser in Western.
For Ombima, Raila has the people behind him, a strength he says Ruto cannot take away easily no matter how many MPs he courts.
“Why can’t Ruto try and buy wananchi? He knows that Raila has got wananchi. Whatever he is trying to do to decimate Raila’s support will not succeed,” Ombima said.
He added that, “It is not bad for MPs to meet the President but they must communicate to their relevant political parties.”
Dr Charles Nyambuga of Maseno University also asserted that Tuesday's meeting doesn’t mean the former Prime Minister is finished politically.
The Public Communications specialist held that Raila is already getting a new crop of people to work with to checkmate the Ruto regime.
“While it may be perceived that the sitting MPs can influence the momentum of the Raila campaign, they are carried by Raila. They rode on the ODM leader's back to clinch the seats they occupy,” he said.
Nyambuga further opined that defections are not new and past experiences have proven that at the end of the day, Raila’s backers never abandon his train.
"Raila can only be dealt a blow, if the financiers pull out, but not because some people have defected. The new team that Raila is coming up with looks promising in delivering the objectives of the anti-Ruto campaign,” the don said.
Former Kisumu Senator Fred Outa, who is among the key faces backing Ruto in the region, said they broke away as "the former Prime Minister has little to offer the region in his current circumstances."
(Edited by V. Graham)
