Azimio leader Raila Odinga could lose grip of his Western vote bloc as Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi moves to rally the region behind him.
Musalia on Wednesday met 35 MPs from both sides of the political divide in a strategy meeting that heralded his efforts to galvanise the region and ‘grab’ it from Raila.
If Musalia succeeds, he can use the region to bargain with President William Ruto in 2027 or consider his own stab at the presidency.
Western has been Raila’s political bedrock, with the region overwhelmingly voting for him since the 2007 general election.
The Musalia onslaught comes even as the ODM boss lost his deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya, one of his strongest political pillars and who led Azimio campaigns in the vote-rich area.
In an unexpected move on Tuesday, Oparanya, who is former Kakamega governor, said he was "done with Raila".
“I am offering myself from now to lead the unity drive of our people. I am done with Raila and, even if he bad-mouths me, God forbid, he knows, he will not be forgiven,” he said.
The influential politician said he read betrayal of the region by ODM and its leader, Raila, after decades of supporting them.
For instance, Oparanya wondered why the Luhya community could not be given even a single slot in the East Africa Legislative Assembly.
“The results of that vote is that all other big tribes but the Luhya sent an MP to EALA,” he said during a funeral in Ichinga village, Mumias.
Last week, former Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito lost in his bid to be elected to EALA by members of Parliament.
Kizito was among the six candidates fronted by ODM for election to the regional legislative assembly.
Raila’s daughter Winner Odinga and Mombasa businessman Suleiman Shahbal won the election alongside five others from Kenya Kwanza and one from Jubilee Party.
With Oparanya’s looming departure and Musalia's aggressive efforts to control the region, Raila’s long-held political influence in the region could suffer a big blow.
President Ruto has heavily rewarded Western with big government appointments giving Musalia a potent arsenal against Raila.
Obviously, Musalia has moved to consolidate his backyard for him to remain relevant. We have seen the Deputy President do the same in Central. So, it is part of a plan to remain relevant both politically and within Kenya Kwanza
Besides Musalia, the President dished out two other cabinet slots to the region. They are Ababu Namwamba (Sports) and Susan Nakhumicha (Health).
The region also landed the National Assembly speaker slot, which went to former Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang'ula.
The speaker is the third most powerful person in the country’s leadership hierarchy. Only the President and his deputy are more powerful.
In Nairobi, Musalia held a breakfast strategy meeting with 35 legislators from both Azimio and Kenya Kwanza at Radisson Blue Hotel, Upper Hill.
The leaders are from all five counties in the larger Western region: Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia.
“Obviously, Musalia has moved to consolidate his backyard for him to remain relevant. We have seen the Deputy President do the same in Central. So, it is part of a plan to remain relevant both politically and within Kenya Kwanza,” said political analyst Martin Andati.
While some leaders who attended the meeting claimed that politics was not the agenda of the meeting, some admitted that it was Musalia’s first attempt to consolidate his turf.
“It is part of it,” said Vihiga Woman Representative Beatrice Adagala when asked whether the meeting was part of Musalia’s efforts to rally the region behind him.
Lurambi MP Titus Khamala, who was elected on the ODM ticket, said the meeting aimed at uniting the region after "bitter lessons" learnt from the EALA vote.
"The central point of our meeting was that we need to come together as a region. Even after the EALA vote, we learnt a lot of bitter lessons that we always extend our hand to other people but when we are in need, other communities don’t come to our aid,” he said.
However, in a telltale sign that the Musalia could be wooing the region to Ruto, Khamala said the political window never closes.
“The window of politics never closes. It is always open. You can never close a window on politics,” he said.
The MPs said they will work with the government to revive stalled projects in the region, including Mumias Sugar Company and Pan Paper Mill in Webuye.
Butere MP Tindi Mwale of ODM said he attended the meeting for the sake of development for his constituents.
“Why is it that you always read politics when it comes to Luhya leaders meeting?” he posed.
“We have seen [Deputy President] Rigathi meeting people from Central but when it comes to Musalia meeting Luhyas, it is now political.
“I am an ODM diehard member but I was there. Invite was sent to everyone.”
Sabatia MP Clement Logova said the meeting was purely to discuss the development and unity of the region.
“We talked about the unity of our people. We saw that it was better that we come together so that we can form a caucus where we can discuss our issues and push our agenda under the leadership of Mudavadi,” he said.
Senators Edwin Sifuna (Nairobi) and Godfrey Osotsi (Vihiga) kept away from the meeting, saying it was divisive and questioned Musalia’s credentials to unite the region.
“I did not attend. I do not want to be part of an agenda whose end game is potentially divisive and unproductive,” Osotsi said.
Sifuna said, “Musalia has no base to consolidate but he is free to have tea with his kinsmen.”
The meeting came just a day after a group of 21 MPs from the region, including those from the opposition, vowed to work with Ruto’s government.
Led by Khamala, Navakholo MP Emmanuel Wangwe and his Ikolomani counterpart Bernard Shinali, they pledged to work with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
“The election period is over and I want to meet President Ruto and work with him to ensure that the people of Kakamega are not left in the cold as the new administration settles down to work,” Khamala said.
Recently, Khamala and Wangwe led a group of Azimio MPs from the region for a meeting with Ruto, triggering talks of a looming departure from the opposition coalition.
Already, Musalia has met some opposition governors from Western in what can be seen as efforts to rally the region for Ruto.
Early this month, the Prime Cabinet Secretary met Vihiga Governor Wilber Otichillo, who was elected on the ODM ticket, at the Musalia Mudavadi Centre in Nairobi.
“I reaffirmed the government’s commitment to cooperating with county governments in the push to advance development and guide the nation towards economic independence and ultimate socioeconomic growth,” Musalia said soon after the closed-door meeting.
Musalia also had a talk with Kakamega Governor Fernandez Barasa.
Edited by Josephine M. Mayuya