MATIBA: Why Joho must leave Raila's shadow to save political career

The by-election followed the death of area MP and Local Government Minister Karisa Maitha, whom the coastal people nicknamed "Mugogo" due to his aggressive style of politics and his fight for their rights.

From the onset, it wasn’t easy to fill into Mugogo’s big shoes. Friends and even foes such as former Bahari MP Joe Khamisi admit Maitha he was a force to reckon with. They concur that he left a big gap that will not be filled easily.    

Joho failed to clinch the seat as he lost to Narc's Anania Mwaboza, who was backed by Garsen MP Danson Mungatana.

This did not dampen Joho’s political spirit.

He did his homework well and in 2007, he was back on the ballot on the LDP ticket and won, later appointed Assistant Minister in the coalition government.

This is where his star started to shine.

In the following 2013 General Election, he vied and was elected as the first Governor of Mombasa on the ODM ticket. He then emerged as the fieriest critic of President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee administration on historical injustices over land and development at the Coast, earning the title ”Sultan”.

Within ODM ranks, Joho rose to become deputy party leader alongside then Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, effectively making him the King of Coast politics.

In 2017 election, the politicians in Mombasa who challenged Joho — either in ODM primaries or at the main polls — lost. Seasoned politicians such as Ramadhan Kajembe, Mwalimu Mwahima and Rashid Shakombo were pushed to political oblivion.

The effects were felt even in Taita Taveta, Tana River and Kilifi counties. First governors Hussein Dado (Tana River) and John Mrutu (Taita Taveta) and Kilifi South MP Mustafa Idd lost their seats for repordely going against Joho. Malindi MP and now Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung'aro also lost at the time.

Like a wolf pack, the Alfa male will be always challenged from time to time, and he must fight for his position or exiled or sent to the lowest rank in the pack. At worst, killed. Joho must fight for the Coastal kingship or die politically. 

The first politician to successfully challenge Joho's crown was Governor Salim Mvurya, who in his second term defected from ODM to the Jubilee Party and won. It's an open secret that Mvurya succeeded in turning Kwale county against Joho.

Ther is also Nyali MP Mohamed Ali aka Jicho Pevu, who took the war to Joho's doorstep in Mombasa county. He vied as an independent candidate against ODM’s Said Abdalla alias Saido and won. This is after he claimed Joho had rigged him out in the ODM primaries in favour of Saido.

From there on, it was clear that you can challenge the king and survive.

After 2017 election, Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa — now Cabinet nominee for Public service — joined the bandwagon. 

Now the Coastal counties are no longer ODM strongholds, and anyone can go get the votes. Joho’s kingship is on the line.

The highest ranking politicians as of now in the Coast is the Senate Speaker and PAA party leader Amason Kingi and Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs CS nominee Mvurya, the former Kwale governor.

WHAT HE SHOULD DO

When campaigning for Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga, Joho told the coastal people that after backing his party leader for the 2022 General Election, it would be his turn to seek the seat in the next election. He was to be the Lands CS, had Raila won the election.

Now that he is the political cold, he should plan to revive his star or retire from politics with his mentor, Raila.

If wants to be politically relevant, he should abandon ODM and join or form a new political party. His star will only dim, if he continues to walk under Raila's shadow.

With his own party, he will be able to make moves that will propel him to the presidency or closer to that. The party will enable him to be on the national negotiating table just like Kingi, who ditched ODM and formed PAA. It through his outfit that he was able to negotiate for the Senate speaker post.

He can still use the brand "Sultan" to market himself and his new political party in Coast and Northeastern. Hire the best strategists, bring on board coastal politicians, and mobilisers within the next four years and people will start singing his name.

President William Ruto campaigned for five years to be President.

Joho has five years to do this and reclaim his crown.

The writer is a Malindi youth leader

@Fredy_matiba