The Jubilee juggernaut of yesteryears is in utter disarray, the united front that saw Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto escape conviction in an international criminal trial, and hold executive and legislative power in Kenya, being no more. The legacy of Jubilee is now left to the exacting verdict of history.
In this final article of the series, I consider the impact of the Jubilee regime on the most basic needs of the people of Kenya, especially food and housing.
Affordable food is the most important economic priority of a nation, providing the nutrition to sustain life, which in turn affects the ability of children to achieve good outcomes in education and cope better with preventable illnesses, and for adults to be more productive. This underpins economic prosperity and social progress.
Jubilee inherited a robust economy from the Kibaki-Raila coalition government, with domestic food production on the ascendancy, and reliance on food imports in decline.
The Economic Survey indices in the period 2017 to 2021 show that the Uhuru administration performed well in overseeing improved domestic food production and exports. There was increased animal and vegetable fat and oil exports compared to imports, with the export quantum growing by a massive 131 per cent as imports increased by only 32 per cent, and the Kenya export prices rising by 49 per cent as import prices rose by a lower 34 per cent.
The food and live animal import quantum fell by 17 per cent and the import price remained unchanged, while the Kenyan export quantum rose by 22 per cent and the prices fell by eight per cent in that period.
In a nutshell, Jubilee sustained the trend it inherited of making Kenyans more self-reliant on their own food by producing more, increasing earnings from exports, and spending less on imports, thus narrowing the chasm between large import costs and puny export revenues.
This is confirmed by the Food Balance Sheet that shows that Kenya’s Self-Sufficiency Ratio, indicating how much of the human calorific needs are satisfied from domestic food production, was 80.1 per cent in 2013 and rose to 90.3 per cent in 2021 as dependency on foreign sources shown by Import Dependency Ratio declined from 23.3 per cent to 12.7 per cent in the same period.
The Big Four agenda promised to increase farmers’ incomes and achieve complete food and nutrition security for Kenyans through increased production and lowering prices, thus improving agricultural contribution to Gross Domestic Product by 48 per cent.
Jubilee however failed to increase agricultural productivity and value added, with agriculture's contribution to GDP at constant prices stagnating at 19 per cent in 2017, and standing at 18 per cent in 2021.
The complete food security for Kenyans that Jubilee promised was illusory as the latest Kenya Food Security Outlook 2022 shows that about 3.1 million Kenyans are food insecure, a 50 per cent increase from a year ago.
However, the Uhuru administration did well in increasing gross value added in farming, although this was negated by high input costs thus minimising farmers' incomes. The gross value added in agriculture at constant prices, discounting inflationary effects, rose by nine per cent during the last five years of the Kibaki-Raila administration from 2008 to 2012, and increased by 14.6 per cent in the second term of Uhuru from 2017 to 2021.
As farmers produced more, a key determinant of the profitability of their enterprises was the cost of consumable inputs, labour and capital. Under the Kibaki-Raila coalition government, price indices for agricultural inputs were tame, increasing by 10 per cent from 2008 to 2012, with manufactured feed rising by 21 per cent, fertilisers by 10 per cent, purchased seeds by nine per cent and energy by five per cent.
Under the Uhuru administration, agricultural input price indices rose by 12 per cent between 2017 and 2021, with manufactured feeds going down by 29 per cent, fertilisers up by 24 per cent, purchased seed up by a massive 57 per cent and energy rising by 19 per cent.
Uhuru, therefore, sustained the agricultural performance of the Kibaki-Raila coalition of improved production, increased self-reliance on domestic food sources and reduced importation of food.
However, the Jubilee regime failed to mitigate high input costs in agriculture, which undermined productivity. This has been exacerbated by the disruption of input supplies caused by the Russia-Ukraine war that has elevated energy, fertiliser and chemical prices further, leading to high costs of food and lower living standards for many people.
The next President must focus on lowering agricultural input costs and creating conditions for Kenyan farmers to be more competitive in domestic and international markets for them to make more profits.
Raila Odinga has committed to subsidise farm inputs if he becomes President of Kenya. This would immensely help Kenyan farmers to produce more at lower costs, enabling them to successfully compete with foreign farmers who enjoy huge subsidies in their own countries. Increased productivity on Kenyan farms is vital for poverty reduction, curbing malnutrition in children, and making the lives of millions of people better.
Ruto has proposed input finance and agricultural extension to enable poor farmers to produce more, which would be commendable if credit were cheap. However, credit is expensive due to elevated interest rates. The state-backed credit schemes Kenya has had since Independence have been rife with corruption, and they never benefited the many small farmers.
The last of the Big Four promises is also the worst indictment of the UhuRuto duo, who committed to building half a million affordable houses in their final five years in power.
Jubilee spectacularly failed in this endeavour, facilitating completion of only 5,225 houses from 2017 to 2021 under the National Housing Corporation and the State Department for Housing, an underwhelming result.
Housing credit from the NHC, which is supposed to anchor affordable housing, is non-existent, the tiny amounts that used to trickle to a few well-connected people having ceased in 2019. Government spending on housing is inadequate, peaking at Sh25.6 billion in 2020-21 and declining to a budgeted amount of Sh14 billion in 2021-22.
The next President has a wonderful opportunity to rescue millions of Kenyans living in slum hovels by facilitating increased funding and credit for affordable housing. The new government should reduce regulatory hurdles, taxes and approval fees, and increase incentives for use of sustainable local construction materials to spur the private and public sectors to partner in building more affordable and decent homes for Kenyans.
Kenyans say farewell to the Jubilee regime of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto with their eyes cast hopefully to better prospects for posterity. An inclusive and prosperous country shall emerge if all Kenyans are afforded equal opportunity to aspire and get a shot at better lives, which is only possible if the next president shall not tolerate corruption.
When the theft of public resources is curbed, and government focuses on creating an enabling environment for farmers, businesses and everyone else to engage in legitimate endeavours on a level playing field, Kenyans will certainly thrive.
Sisule is a policy analyst based in Geneva, Switzerland. Twitter: sisulet
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