The high threshold set for a presidential victory and the high-stakes State House race have forced Raila and Ruto camps into frenzied campaigns.
The duo has marked each other and are increasingly embracing new ideas and responding to changing realities and regional dynamics to stay ahead of the pack.
They are also refashioning their messaging and whipping their dependable and loyal support bases to push for huge voter turn out with polls projecting an average of 70 per cent turn out next month.
For instance, the land issue, the cost of living, education and the economy are some of the issues taking centre stage in the last days of the campaigns.
Raila and Ruto are also shifting their focus into regions that have been identified as having a big chunk of undecided voters, including the Coast, Western and Mt Kenya, as they ramp up their campaign to ring fence their bastions.
Raila is determined to ring fence his bastions in Western, Nyanza and Coast, and secure at least a quarter of the Mt Kenya votes to stay ahead of the pack in the presidential race.
Polls show he is approaching 30 per cent of the Mt Kenya votes.
Three recent opinion polls by credible firms have projected that neither Raila nor Ruto would manage to win next month's presidential contest in the First Round, with the race shaping into a tight contest.
Political and economic analysts have warned that a run off would be a costly affair for both camps economically and politically, given the country is reeling from massive monetary shocks.
“Kenyans cannot afford a run off, the country is literally broke and the economy is at a standstill at the moment and avoiding a run off would be a big relief to Kenyans,” Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro said.
Nyoro, a key Ruto ally from Murang'a, said the Kenya Kwanza Alliance is determined to deliver a First Round win against the Azimio side to save the country from the agony of another presidential campaign.
“It is already clear we are winning this election by over 60 per cent. Our rivals have panicked and are trying to play catch up with us,” Nyoro said.
However, analysts warn that work is clearly cut out for the country's two main presidential candidates three weeks to the presidential contest amid fears of a possible run off.
Ruto, whom analysts say desperately needs nearly 90 per cent of Mt Kenya's slightly over five million voters from 2017, is walking a political tightrope to sustain his support in the region.
His running mate, Rigathi Gachagua, has been perceived as having triggered an anti-climax in Ruto's grip on Mt Kenya.
While others say Raila's choice of Martha Karua has enhanced his fortunes in the vote-rich region.
Recent polls have shown Ruto has less than 60 per cent support in the President's backyard, threatening his fortunes as the State House race hots up.
Then there is the emerging threat posed by two perceived fringe candidates in the contest — George Wajackoyah and David Mwaure — tipping the State House battle to a down-the-wire duel.
"Wajackoyah has really threatened the first round win for either camp, he is eating into both Raila and Ruto votes with his radical proposals," political analyst Dismas Mokua said.
The recent opinion poll by Tifa showed Wajackoyah could poll at least four per cent of the votes, while Raila and Ruto would garner 42 per cent and 39 per cent respectively.
Another poll by Radio Africa Group indicated Raila and Ruto are in a neck and neck contest, with no one able to garner the 50 per cent plus one of the votes that would be cast.
Raila scored 46.2 per cent, Ruto polled 44.6 per cent, while Wajackoyah scored five per cent, if elections were held then.
Another poll by Infotrack showed Raila is leading the presidential contest with 43 per cent, while Ruto is second with 37 per cent, a few days to next month's polls.
Wajackoyah, whose resurgence in the recent past has shocked his foes, was placed third with four per cent, while Wajackoyah polled one per cent.
With the polls projecting the possibility of a run off, the two leading presidential contenders to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta have scaled up their campaigns across the country.
Raila, who has assembled a jumbo coalition of 26 political parties under the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya outfit — though Pamoja African Alliance and Maendeleo Chap Chap have left — has exuded confidence he will romp to victory against Ruto in the First Round.
The Azimio presidential candidate's team claims they are privy to intelligence reports by state machineries that allegedly indicate they have crossed the 60 per cent mark, weeks to the polling day.
“We are doing over 60 per cent but I want us to win this election by over 70 per cent,” Raila told Taita Taveta voters on Tuesday during his latest charm offensive of the Coast region.
Despite the confidence of trouncing Ruto in the First Round, Raila's Azimio appears to be scaling up their countrywide vote-hunting missions, scouring the most of interior villages.
In the last two weeks, Raila has heightened his campaigns, pulling up more than 40 stops in various regions, including his Nyanza backyard, Coast, Central and Western Kenya.
In some cases, the Azimio team has been forced to split into groups with Karua leading a separate offensives in strategic regions to counter Ruto's Kenya Kwanza onslaughts.
“We are more than confident the Azimio One Kenya will win the election in the First Round and that is why you are seeing the Kenya Kwanza have panicked and are exhibiting raw anger,” Kieni MP Kanini Kega said.
Kega, a key linchpin in the Raila's presidential campaign, said the next few weeks will witness "heightened campaigns” as Azimio traverses "each and every corner" of the country.
“We are entering the most crucial stage. The country is going to be treated to high-octane politics and campaigns that will leave our rivals gasping for air,” Kanini said.
Raila, the serial presidential hopeful who first ran for president in 1997, enjoys the support of outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, nearly framing the contest into an Uhuru-Ruto face-off.
Ruto, the country's second in command, has fallen out furiously with his boss in the succession battle but has formed a formidable campaign machine that threatens to turn the tables on Uhuru.
However, with the Constitution providing a far-higher threshold for anyone to be declared president, each of the frontrunners is pulling all stops to secure victory in the first round.
Ruto has made a record 60 stops in the last two weeks alone, demonstrating the high stakes contest that is seen as a do-or-die battle for Raila and Ruto.
Other than the 50 per cent plus one threshold, the Constitution also requires that a contender must secure at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in each of at least 24 counties.
Turnout will play a critical role as the past two elections have shown.
In 2013, the turnout was 85.9 per cent, while in the nullified 2017 polls, the turnout was 79.5 per cent. The repeat election had a 38.84 per cent turnout after Raila boycotted.
Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga, a university don in History, said there is a likelihood of a run off in next month's polls.
“It is going to be difficult for any presidential candidate to cross the 50 plus one mark, the country should prepare for a run off,” Nyamboga said.
Edited by EKibii
